Hold Tight, Hillary: Russia Just Got Scarier

[Jack Bone]

21.11.2008
Hold Tight, Hillary: Russia Just Got Scarier
--Julia Ioffe

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/11/21/hold-tight-hillary-russia-just-got-scarier.aspx

If any proof were needed that the Russian political system operates in its own time-space continuum, it came this morning, when the parliament decided to deal with the country's economic meltdown by amending its constitution. The Duma fixed the 1993 text by decoupling presidential and parliamentary elections and approving term extensions for the president, from four to six years. The amendment, which President Dmitry Medvedev announced on November 5, was discussed for a scant two weeks and passed overwhelmingly: 392 to 57. (Amazingly, those 57 votes came from the Communists.)

In the West, the amendment was met with a hearty round of "how could they's." It was perceived as a cynical play by Putin for another stab at the presidency, and, more fundamentally, as yet another giant crack in the foundation of an anemic democracy.

The debate among Russia's chattering classes, however, sounds very different--more like specific, sinister prophesies of doom. The amendment, they say, is all Putin's doing, and now Medvedev will step down within the year, ushering in a new round of elections, the end of the thaw, and, of course, twelve years of President Putin (whose approval ratings, incidentally, are still some 20 percent higher than Medvedev's, the actual sitting president). Yulia Latynina, a prominent political columnist, sees something even more complex on the horizon: "First, the ruble will collapse in early 2009--or at the latest when the country's gold and foreign currency reserves run out. ... Medvedev's first reaction will be to blame the West for everything. Then he will explain that he lacks the moral strength to lead the country during a serious crisis." Then, a new round of elections, twelve years of Putin, yadda yadda yadda.

These fears are not unfounded, of course, but for the regular folks, it's far more simple. Fully 56 percent of Russians support the amendment because, heck, they like the president. Both of them! Of the people less favorably inclined--this third of the population mostly happens to live, by the way, in Russia's two big (elitist?) cities--some disapprove because they don't buy the government's argument that they need more than four years to get everything done. In a country of red tape, city voters feel, perhaps ironically, that four years is plenty of time to achieve policy goals. More than half of the dissenters, however, defend democracy so fiercely as to render it moribund: Twelve percent of Russians say that a constitution is not for amending. Ever. <snip>

[DS1]

1. Well it's a damn good thing Condi's been in place for 8 years

keeping an eye on her expert area

[knitter4democracy]

3. Have you ever heard her speak Russian? It hurts the ears.

Here she's supposedly "fluent" in Russian and an expert on the culture and politics of such an amazing country, and her Russian is painful to listen to. Just plain painful. I don't know why she even tries.

As for Hillary, when I was there in college in '95, everyone I talked to hated Bill. He'd come over and promised money to help the government and with nuclear arms reduction, but then the Congress didn't give him the money and the Russians took it as a slap in the face. I'm wondering how Hillary would fare there.

[aquart]

6. I see you're already planning to blame Hillary and not Obama

if perfection is not achieved with Russia.

Please explain how a disfunctional Russia is a bad thing for us?

[knitter4democracy]

11. Um, I was referring to Condi. The post was about Condi.

I didn't know Hillary was a Russian scholar. :eyes:

Dysfunctional Russia is a bad thing. They have nukes, and there are many in that country who would call for the use of them if we pushed them too far. I have personally seen mild, moderate Russians practically foam at the mouth in fury when the idea of NATO expansion was brought up. NATO's original purpose was to defend Europe against the USSR, so I can understand why people there would be furious and frightened by the idea of NATO states on their borders--especially NATO states with US nukes.

[Tempest]

2. This has been debated in Russia a lot earlier than November 5th

And before the economic crisis.

I remember reading about it after the United Russia party was predicted back in April to win a majority of seats in the Duma.

[blm]

4. Oh good...and Hillary has all that experience since she's been leading that issue in the senate for

years.

[aquart]

8. Thank you for your concern.

[blm]

10. What do you expect, aquart? Would you buy that someone is the top marathon runner in the country

if no one can point to one race that was ever run, let alone won?

Not even her biggest fans here at DU can describe one serious foreign policy issue she has led in the senate or even one when she led opposition to Bush throughout this time. She AVOIDED mixing it up with Bush on foreign policy as she and Bill stayed supportive of his Iraq decisions long past the expiration date of most Dems.

[Sequoia]

5. Look, if the people of Russia want Putin then go for it.

They've had so many years of crap so if it makes them happy, then we should step aside and shut our yaps; you know, telling them how they oughta run things. As if every country in the world wants to be like the You S of A.

[SoCalDem]

7. Putin never "left"..

He's their guy, and they're sticking with him.. I think Obama will not be as smitten with him as junior was :)

[blm]

14. Putin never left like Poppy Bush never left.

.

[knitter4democracy]

12. It's complicated.

First, they still have Putin, and they know it. Secondly, there's a strong cultural fear of political change and instability. Times of instability, historically, have not gone very well. Thirdly, many there miss being a superpower and are angry that no one takes Russia seriously anymore (something Putin and Medvedev have exploited for their own purposes). Heck, when I was there, there was a guy at a parade going around with a huge picture of Stalin. When a fellow student "interviewed" him (on his own personal video camera), the guy started ranting about how they were strong under Stalin and feared and respected, and many around him joined in and agreed. Do we want to go back to those days?

[GrizzlyMan]

9. This is why we need to declare victory in the war on Terra and move on

We've taken our eye off the ball for far too long. Putin is at best a thug and at worst a fascist, probably a little of both. At any rate, he is extremely dangerous.

[Tutankhamun]

13. Kasparov (Russian chess champion) was really enlightening

on Bill Maher a few months ago. I remember him saying that the Russian people used to look to America for hope. They saw us as an example of freedom and democracy, and they held out hope that one day their country could know the same.

Today, Kasparov said, Putin has succeeded in portraying American style freedom and democracy as nothing more than hollow geopolitical tools, used by a government that thirsts for oil and money. We brought "freedom" and "democracy "to oil rich Iraq.

Kasparov kept using the word "outplayed" when describing Bush's relations with Putin. It was plain as day he was correct.

That interview really stuck with me. I hope Obama has a "Kasparov" working with him.