New Goldman Sachs Projection: 9% Unemployment by 4Q 2009

[Mike 03]

Goldman Slashes U.S. Growth Forecasts, Says Recession Deepens

By Dave Liedtka

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its recession estimates, saying gross domestic product is declining at a 5 percent annual rate in the current quarter and will drop 3 percent and 1 percent in the next two quarters.

Unemployment will reach 9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a research note today.

Last Updated: November 21, 2008 07:28 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6el6aG0f0oA&refer=home

This latest unemployment estimate is the highest I've seen for 2009. Not good news.

[HereSince1628]

1. These companies couldn't project their own futures, why think they are correct?

As much as DU'ers moan and groan about various polling companies being awful, shouldn't we be suspect of financial companies who couldn't tell their assets from a hole in the ground?

I'm not saying this projection is either under or over what the unemployment figure will be this time next year. I'm saying that the quality of all these projections about the economy are very suspect simply based on these companies recent history of using thier various projections to guide their own business success.

[madrchsod]

2. so they been reduced to reading tea leaves?

the folks who brought us the recession are still somehow relevant?

[KharmaTrain]

3. First Quarter Next Year Will Be Brutal

Right now many companies are hanging on by a slim thread. If holiday sales don't come to the rescue, the fall out after the first of the year could be brutal. There's little cash reserve for these companies to weather a bad fourth quarter and the imploding of both the credit and consumer markets aren't going to turn around over night. Then when these companies report poor earnings, that could tank their stocks that will make a bad situation worse. The sad truth is we're in for a rough year no matter what as the strangulation of the economy will take a long time to straighten out. We haven't hit bottom yet...and as the markets continue to slide, more money is being sheltered away keeping the credit tight. Not until the debt messes are under control will there be a hint of a turn-around.

[JJ]

4. 4Q 2009?

we'll probably see 9% by the end of 1st quarter 2009.

[rucky]

5. And the people crunching those numbers may be among them.

[iamahaingttta]

6. It's already 9%, bozos!

What do these jerk-offs know?
Fuck 'em!
Unemployment is probably already 9%, they just fudge the numbers so much that you wouldn't know it.