Prop 8 Myths ~ FiveThirtyEight.com

[mzmolly]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/prop-8-myths.html">LINK

Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California's black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters -- the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent of their votes) -- voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage.

Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin.

Furthermore, it would be premature to say that new Latino and black voters were responsible for Prop 8's passage. Latinos aged 18-29 (not strictly the same as 'new' voters, but the closest available proxy) voted against Prop 8 by a 59-41 margin. These figures are not available for young black voters, but it would surprise me if their votes weren't fairly close to the 50-50 mark.

At the end of the day, Prop 8's passage was more a generational matter than a racial one. If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two. It appears that the generational splits may be larger within minority communities than among whites, although the data on this is sketchy.

Read the last paragraph at the link above. :hi:

[Maat]

1. Interesting ..

that guy is SO good with statistics.

Thanks for the post.

I sort of got that feeling when I went to the No-On-8 rallies. I remember thinking, "Even if we lose, and it passes, look at these youth. They are all going to vote in the next election, and they will repeal Prop 8 if it passes." Thinking that to myself made me feel so much better.

As far as Beloved Daughter (12) is concerned, there is no question that there should be equality for all.

[mzmolly]

2. I think we're one generation away from "equality for all"

at most? :)

[ShadowLiberal]

5. Maybe a half a generation, depends on if we can get more young people to vote

Californians should keep on putting it back on the ballot to repeal the ban every year until it passes. I mean it's what the neocons did in Arizona when it failed the first time, there's no law against constantly putting the same ballot initiative on the ballot each year until it passes.

If they could get better funding for supporting gay marriage then they should get priests from nations with gay marriage to speak out in favor of it. In one of those nations (I forget which) right before gay marriage was legalized they surveyed a bunch of priests on their opinions about gay marriage, and found something like 84% opposed it, and gave strong reasons for their opinions. Then something like 5 years of gay marriage being allowed later they asked those same priests again, and something like 70% supported it then, and admitted they were wrong to have opposed it for all of the good things it brought about, like making gay couples more faithful to each other was one reason many of them cited.

[Maat]

6. At most.

:)

I really think that our Supreme Court (Cal's) is going to invalidate it because, if they don't, all sorts of fundamental rights will be open to attack - and the Court will not tolerate that possibility.

So, I'm expecting a quick stay this week (and couples will be able to marry again). Perhaps the idiots in my state will learn a bit of constitutional law and their government in the process (such as 'fundamental rights are not up to a vote.' Who knows? Maybe some of the dufuses are teachable.

[mzmolly]

10. I agree.

:hi:

You know, I also wonder if some people were voting against the Mormon ten wives thing? The question on Prop 8 was so narrow, KWIM?

[Maat]

17. Hi,

I have Mormon neighbors. They are flanked by conservative, hardright, evangelical neighbors. They just don't get it. A civil rights struggle is a civil rights struggle; all people should have equal rights, and be treated with respect.

I don't argue with them anymore; I'm just polite (so that my house or cars don't get damaged, or so that I don't have to talk to Code Enforcement on some dumb complaint about weeds - mad neighbors are vengeful neighbors). So, I'm just polite, as I said before.

HeeHee; I'm laughing at your clever humor.

I've realized that I'm never going to change the minds of some dunderheads around here; but, there are plenty of people that will learn. There is just a hopeless bunch that will have to die off; their kids and grandkids are much more openminded, although THEY keep silent - so as not to be harassed. Sigh.

:hi:

[Lydia Leftcoast]

8. I think you're right about the youth

It's been my experience that older people who grew up in the era when homosexuality was considered too indecent to mention in polite society just don't get it. They think it's something that people "do" to spite conventional society instead of something that people "are."

Older people are not incorrigible in that respect, but it takes extensive exposure to out GLBT people, an experience that younger people are more likely to have.

[Tutonic]

3. Thanks. Sounds rationale. Also I'm confident that Courts will

act with haste to overturn Prop. 8--you can't remove someone from the table like that. That's why we are a nation of laws. Lets reinstate the law and get those heretical Mormons out of the state.

[4lbs]

4. I showed in my earlier post the 4 counties in CA that had both large voting populations and large

percentages in favor of Prop 8. Those 4 are also heavily Republican.

[Maat]

7. I live in one - Riverside County.

Despite this, thousands voted against it. Shoot, we had at least 200 at every No-On-8 rally (on our side).

We are slowly turning the tide in this county. We actually have nearly as many Democrats as Republicans now, due to a huge registration effort, of which I was a part. We're still getting things turned around down here in the Murrieta/Temecula area (the Southern California Bible Belt), chock full of hardright churches; but, things are changing for the better.

[4lbs]

9. Yeah, collectively in these 4 counties, about 750,000 people voted against Prop 8.

However, those 750,000 who valued equal rights for all people were overshadowed by the 1.25 million in the four counties that voted for Prop 8. :(

[Maat]

16. We activists here in Riverside County are a hearty lot ..

and we all know each other by name.

We. never. give. up.

We are SO persistent, that we will win (soon)!

[EFerrari]

11. Could I ask someone to please post that last paragraph?

I can't get this site to load. Argh!

[Radical Activist]

13. here ya go

The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that -- and there's no polite way to put this -- the older voters aren't going to be around for all that much longer, and they'll gradually be cycled out and replaced by younger voters who grew up in a more tolerant era. Everyone knew going in that Prop 8 was going to be a photo finish -- California might be just progressive enough and 2008 might be just soon enough for the voters to affirm marriage equity. Or, it might fall just short, which is what happened. But two or four or six or eight years from now, it will get across the finish line.

[EFerrari]

14. Thank you. I've yet to see anyone mention CA did BETTER

this time than last time this issue was put up for a vote.

We will get there. The revulsion at the outcome of this election is a great indicator of where we're going. Maybe the Courts will help us along sooner than later.

[Radical Activist]

12. That's the most exciting thing about the election results.

For prop 8 and for all progressives. 2/3 of people under 30 voted for Obama. This is a generational shift. Change is coming.

[EFerrari]

15. In CA, the fastest growing minority voting pool is Latino

AND they are by far also the YOUNGEST! We have a huge natural advantage among those voters. While some call themselves social conservatives, that doesn't mean to them what it means for Republicans. It usually means you have your own personal practice but you don't get between someone else and theirs.

[AntiFascist]

18. One problem is that Prop. 8 sets a dangerous precedent...

the validation of Prop 8 would allow a simple majority to set restrictions on the state's equal protection clause, which essentially renders it useless. Any future propositions undoing the effects of Prop 8 will not undo this precedent, and they will likely make it even worse. The state supreme court must rule that Prop 8 is invalid, NOW!