Are the results we will hear on November 5th already predetermined?

[riverdeep]

This guy says yes. Allan J. Lichtman, a political scientist at American University in DC, a Harvard grad, and author of the book "The Thirteen Keys to the White House" wrote this on Oct 4th, 2007:

The election for president is more than a year away. Neither major party has as yet chosen a nominee. Yet the results of the 2008 election are already in: the Democrats will recapture the White House next fall, whether they nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama, John Edwards, or Bill Richardson. Only an unprecedented cataclysmic change in American politics during the next year could salvage Republican hopes.

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2007/10/the-13-keys-to-the-white-house-why-the-democrats-will-win/

Instead of things like daily tracking polls, he believes far more fundamental keys determine elections, and short of radical shifts or missteps, Presidential elections are often determined well before election day. This system has correctly accounted for every election since 1860, in terms of the popular vote. As he notes, not since 1888 has the popular vote diverged from the electoral, except in 2000, and he says point blank that it was because of theft (he has extensive involvement in the purging of black voter rolls issue, having assisted the US Commision on Civil Rights).

Here are his thirteen keys:

KEY 1
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House than it did after the previous midterm elections.

KEY 2
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

KEY 3
Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

KEY 4
Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.

KEY 5
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

KEY 6
Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

KEY 7
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

KEY 8
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

KEY 9
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

KEY 10
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

KEY 11
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

KEY 12
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

KEY 13
Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If his theories are correct, then all the talking heads blathering means absolutely nothing, and the majority of voters, for all their general cluelessness, seem to vote based on performance (as they define it), rather than being swayed by campaign rhetoric.



Further links:
(Keys to the White House, Amazon page)
http://www.amazon.com/Keys-White-House-Predicting-President/dp/0742562700/ref=pd_sim_b_3/190-2052967-4265931

("Keys to the Election: 2004", he correctly called the Bush win)
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/commentary-lichtman.html

[aquart]

1. I did say we could run a yellow rubber ducky this year and win.