The race is tightening...or not.

[WilliamPitt]

From Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic:

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So -- here's what seems to be happening nationally.

Nationally, John McCain seems to be gaining an eensy bit of traction among Republican base voters and conservative leaning independents. A dew drips worth of white men here, a few drips among rural voters.

I write "seems to" because there's nothing distinguishing his movement from natural noise at this point. Polling averages also seem to be steady. Barack Obama's numbers aren't moving downward. McCain's are moving a bit upwards. (Was he really going to get 39% of the vote?) In the battlegrounds, except for in McCain's internal polling, there has been NO appreciable tightening. None.

Actually, that's wrong. There's been tightening in red states. Georgia. Montana. North Dakota. South Dakota. Arizona. If I had to guess, well, I'd hazard that McCain's blip up has to do with the economic code words he's using... and also because the race being given maximum attention by the public. Democrats tend to panic at the slightest hint of tightening polls. They really shouldn't; the fundamentals of this political economy are strong.

The rest: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_polls_they_are.php

...breathe...

[Raven]

1. You're up early! As New Hampshire goes, so goes the Nation...

or something like that? I love our numbers up here! :-)

[RBInMaine]

2. BUT, you don't play DEFENSE in the endgame. OBAMA needs to finish on OFFENSE !!

[Democat]

4. I would like to see a lot more offense from Obama!

But he's winning, so I hesitate to be too critical. He has been letting McCain / Palin off the hook on so many issues during the campaign. But, again, he's winning, so let's see what he's got going on for this week and work even harder to GOTV!

[Syrinx]

3. hey William, from Tuscaloosa!

As noted in another post... I visited local Dem HQ last night, and I was impressed. A large crowd was being taught how to look out for GOP tricks.

I'm not ready to call Alabama for Obama... certainly not. But the feeling in the air is that it's going to be closer here than in a very long time.

And I've heard pundits predicting black voter turnout at 95+%. If that's true...

Smells like 1992. A dark-horse 'Bama NC, and Democrats take the White House!

Please don't talk me down.

:hi:

[Poseidan]

5. conservatives, the biggest saps of them all

They vote for George Bush because he's a 'conservative'. George Bush only got in government to pillage and plunder for himself and his fellow private sector monarchs. He does not care in any way for the American people, the United States of America, or anyone else. So yes, he's a conservative because he wants to expand the powers of the private sector, the one he and his friends have a dictatorial rule over (partially through inheritance; which was taxed, until it was abolished by, not surprisingly, George Bush).