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Do tax cuts lead to economic growth? Job creation stats from 2001 through 2008 . . .

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HughBeaumont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 12:46 PM
Original message
Do tax cuts lead to economic growth? Job creation stats from 2001 through 2008 . . .
I recently went on Bloomberg’s application and took a historical measure of job creation during the Bewsh debac . . er . . Administration. Cumulative totals reflect actual numbers, which are not very far off from revised numbers. Either way . . . Jesus, it’s really bad.

Not only is it bad, but the results put to death once and for all the legend that the Friedman/Feldstein brand of predatory disaster capitalism and low-taxation, high debt, pro-offshoring, laissez-FAIL economics is best for America when it comes to job creation and economic progress.

Also figured in the stats is a benchmark of 150,000 jobs needed each month to accommodate incoming/outgoing workers. Mind you, that’s being kind. Universally, economists and financial pundits cite a number between 150 and 190 thousand jobs needed to accommodate incoming/outgoing workers, varying by month.

• From 2001 to 2008, averaging the actual jobs created per month without factoring in churn . . . 49 thousand. In case you were wondering, that’s worse than pathetic.

• This isn’t even including the November 5th numbers, which are bound to be horrendous. Now that we have had 10 straight months of losing private sector jobs — a total loss of 983,000 jobs — Bush now owns the worst private sector job creation record under any president since records were kept. Since he came into office, private sector jobs have been created at a rate of only 0.36%/year, which is now below his father’s record of 0.39%/year. Considering the population grows at around 1% per year, these totals aren’t even CLOSE to what’s required each month.

• The Bewsh economy’s best numbers came between April 2004 and May 2006, when much of the job creation (that’s likely since been negated) during his term took place. In this period of time, the 150k jobs- needed stat was met in 13 months out of 26. 50%. In the immortal words of Dean Wormer to Robert Hoover: ”A fine example you’ve set!”

• If you go by the economist-assumed benchmark of 150,000 jobs needed each month, that means for a three-YEAR period beginning March 2001 and lasting through March 2004, the economy failed to meet that average benchmark. This makes it one of the worst periods of recovery from an official recession in history. Count the two terms and the benchmark, at 150,000, has been met a total of 18 months out of 94. 19 percent. Amazing.

• Here’s something else that’s scary. Assuming you factor in, each month the 150,000 jobs needed stat; summing up the amount of jobs the Bewsh economy has come up short of that number for each month, you’re looking at 9.4 million jobs down since 2001.

• The economy has lost a cumulative total of 3.1 million manufacturing jobs since 2001. This includes streaks of 39 and 27 months of no jobs gained in this sector.

It’s a disgusting illustration of “Mind over Matter” economics; that is to say, they don’t mind and we don’t matter. If anyone ever asks me why I won’t vote Republican, I’ll just point to their historic record of coddling Big Business and private equity firms via tax breaks and loopholes while screwing the sole proprietorship, the poor, the working and middle classes and the unemployed.

Those who pine for the days of reasonable Eisenhower conservatives who at least seemed to know the danger of industries with an empirical bent are going to be waiting quite a while. The new brand of conservative is far too greedy to give up this legalized Ponzi scheme; that which rewards the privileged while suckering in more than a few million useful idiots who think they’ll be rich someday to go along with this bastardry.

Beware when a politician and/or CEO use the terms “Personal Responsibility”, “Privatization”, “Economic Freedom” and “Lower taxes” when it comes to discussing “solutions” for the economy. These are more or less code words for “pissing on your head and telling you it’s spring water”.

We’ve always had proof that the low-tax, pro-corporate “plan” of job creation is a crock. Yet since the Reagan administration, useful idiot Repukes continue to echo this mistaken belief that lowering taxes puts more money in the pocket of the working man. What they miss completely is that during periods of the pittance tax cuts workers get, corporations and the wealthy are getting theirs also, and their cut is far greater and far more damaging to the employment prospects of the worker.

Their other mistaken belief is that taxing the wealthy will cause them not to hire people, or even more hilarious, pass the costs to us in the form of higher prices on goods. Once again, corporations are taxed on profits, not expenses. The ONLY relationship between employee compensation and income taxes is that income taxes are reduced when a business pays more in employee compensation (and therefore has less taxable profits). Any robust economy is driven by a middle/working class that's gainfully employed (like, for instance, the middle part of the Clinton years). When corporate tax rates are lower, businesses feel no great need to hire, thus creating large profits and cash stores but a "jobless recovery" in the process (like, for instance, the Bush years. Both of them). Plus corporations can only charge what the public is willing to pay. DVD players aren't going to soar to $400 because corporate tax rates are raised slightly. The laws of supply and demand still figure in.

This country has absolutely no idea when we’re going to see the light at the end of the dark tunnel of Republican-enabled corporatist economic policy and its disastrous results. The American population is rife with worry among all classes of people about job loss, the unemployed could be looking at a long period of inactivity and/or underemployment in the foreseeable future, investments are tanking, the banking system is in shambles, most people in this country are a major illness or an unforseen financial disaster away from eviction or bankruptcy, and neither the government nor the corporate community will do anything about it. Instead of discussing a progressive tax system or the idea of national health care, the government more or less OK’d a “bailout” that still allows the wealthy to walk away with their fortunes intact and barely saves their businesses while the workers get fired anyway.

In other words, the American taxpayer paid for his/her own firings against their will.

It amazes me how corporations that throw their valuable employees to the wolves just so they can make an extra buck believe this way is somehow a better work environment for all. A firing affects an individual forever; often times they cannot recover or reach the level of compensation they were once at. People who cannot save a dime (because the cost of living is hard enough to pay) are expected to treat the loss of their livelihood as they would any other sudden life-threatening emergency - with planning, savings, etc. Why should ANYone have to live under this shroud of fear on a continuous basis?

And tax cuts for everyone, especially and mostly on the wealthy (as McCain plans to do) is the answer? Giving more money to the wealthy and corporations in the hope that they’ll be benevolent and create jobs and strengthen our economy this time, even though the total opposite has happened these past 28 years, is the answer? Making this country insolvent is the answer? Increasing the gap between the rich and the poor is the answer?

How does that saying go? “Fool me once, shame on . . . shame on you . . . you fool me, you can’t get fooled agin!”??

Barack Obama doesn’t pretend to have all the answers. If one is looking for a miracle worker this campaign, they’d better keep looking. He’s still going to have to deal with the selfishly wealthy greedbags that run corporate America and influence government, their lobbyists, the useful idiots who worship them and the racists who blame “his kind” for their supposed problems. What he DOES have on his side are two things: the history of overall economic success during Democratic administrations and a detailed plan that uses those tried-and-true steps to get us back on the correct track. He knows there’s going to be a tough road ahead. Bill Clinton had that same tough road after Bewsh’s old man. But we came out of it a stronger nation and saw a massive growth in jobs and newer innovative economic sectors we’re still seeing today.

Plain and simple: Bad Republican policy cannot cure bad Republican policy.

You have a choice come November:

1) Surgical repair of a system that’s lost a lot of blood in 8 years and possible recovery.
2) Pulling the plug on this country once and for all.

Not really that difficult if you ask me.

At least to those of us who can add 2 + 2.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. Great analysis.
Well done and sadly true.

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OhioChick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. K&R
:kick:
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
3. Job QUALITY, not only "numbers", is the problem
Edited on Wed Oct-22-08 01:00 PM by SoCalDem
a lost job that pays $15 an hour (with benefits) vs 3 NEW jobs @$8 an hour (with NO benefits) is not a net gain, but if you are using just the numbers, there's a lot of obfuscation possible..

same for the unemployment numbers

ONE lost GOOD job gets replaced by the same person taking 3 part-time shitty jobs, and you get (on paper) a net gain of 2..and the person may be making less money and working MORE hours..
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HughBeaumont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Which, again, is what we saw during the Bewsh years ("Uniquely American", anyone?)-
A decline in income and real wages and underemployment.

I think the U6 unemployment number is more accurate than the main one the BLS uses.

Right, the superficial numbers reveal the deeper despair that Bewshonomics (which was really Reaganomics turned up to 11 in all the wrong directions) causes . . .
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 01:14 PM
Response to Original message
4. Excellent Summary, Sir! "Bad Republican Policy Cannot Cure Bad Republican Policy"
Prosperity does not trickle down; it percolates up. No one will invest to produce things people cannot buy; people cannot buy more of wages are not increased.
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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 02:44 PM
Response to Original message
6. K&R, now I'm really depressed. n/t
:kick: & R

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HughBeaumont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Right, but you know . . . us "Soshulist LIBS" are the problem.
Edited on Wed Oct-22-08 02:51 PM by HughBeaumont
Not the Repukes performing legal robbery or the appeaser neo-LieberDems who aid and abet.

Damn us for wanting to have a social safety net that's worth a shit! Helping people is . . . BAD FOR BUSINESS!

You wouldn't want to be . . . BAD FOR BUSINESS, would you?
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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 05:56 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. You know, as bad as they are, these numbers are skewed?
Reclassification of certain types of jobs (fast food as manufacturing, for example) as well as changes in the eligibility of jobs as 'lost' eliminated about 1/4 million additional jobs lost per year.

Thanks for keeping the important stuff available here.
:kick:

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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 04:18 PM
Response to Original message
8. tax rates can indeed affect an employer's likelihood to hire
businesses do not simply respond to tax hikes by saying, oh well, lost some of my profit, big deal. whenever tax rates change, they rerun their models and run cost-benefit analyses in light of the new tax rates. for every business decision, there needs to be reward enough to justify the risk. tax rate increases reduce the reward for success, but don't reduce the risk enough.

consequently, a business might decide not open that new plant or branch or store or whatever.

HOWEVER, you have to thread a certain needle here. it's only when the CHANGE in tax rates is enough to push you from a "go" to a "no-go" decision. most of the time, a business decision is either good or bad regardless of prevailing tax rates. particularly when we're talking about SMALL changes in rates. go from, say, 33% to 73%, that would certainly be meaningful. but going from 33% to 39% is rather unlikely to be the difference in anyone's decision. and if it were, it would be a pretty borderline case. is the economy that much better off with one more business teetering on the edge?


what gets lost in all the ideology of today's rabid partisans is that the numbers matter. sometimes a tax cut makes sense, sometimes a tax hike makes sense. it's not about the direction of movement, it's about getting it to a reasonable level that pays the bills without overly constraining the economy. the rates should move with the economy: lower when times are tough and higher when we can afford to pay the bills. and the cuts should be directed where they would do the most good. today the economy has way too much capital, that's what's getting us in so much trouble. it's demand that's been hamstrung by debt, and obama's plan is the best toward easing the burden on those who can reignite demand in due course.


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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
9. Great discussion --
if you or someone can figure out an accurate way to chart this visually, it would be very useful . . .
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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
10. Great post. K&R
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