what is the most accurate poll?

[patrick t. cakes]

and for that matter the least accurate poll?

cheers, go bama!

[Bicoastal]

1. Most accurate: Gallup. It's got the longest history and the best track record.

They practically invented polling as it exists today. And they've only been wrong on two elections--Truman|Dewey and Ford|Carter (but were right about 2000 and 2004.)

Least accurate: ARG. The name says it all.

[Warpy]

2. My favorites are Harris and AP/Ipsos/Reid

Gallup has been caught over weighting for GOP and Rasmussen has odd methodology which also favors the GOP.

However, when all polls show basically the same thing with only slightly differing numbers, you can be pretty sure that it's actually happening out there in workaday land.

[BlooInBloo]

3. 538 has them all ranked.

[last1standing]

4. I'll let you know in a couple of weeks.

Until then there's really no way of being sure.

[frankowen7]

5. Ditto