Zogby Zigs and Zags to Explain Away Obama's Lead

[bigtree]

here's Zogby on the -3- point lead they reported Sunday:

{Barack Obama's lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race has dropped to 3 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday."

"If that trend continues, it is something that has got to raise red flags for Obama," Zogby said. "It suggests to me that his outward look of confidence may be as much strategy as it is real."


here's Zogby on the -6- point lead they're reporting for today:

"Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race to 6 percentage points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday."

"McCain seems to have slipped a little bit, but in the grand scheme it's still a very close race," Zogby said.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. "the grand scheme"

Indeed...

:rofl:

[kansasblue]

2. Zogby-SnakeOil Inc

[yellowcanine]

3. Pollsters like Zogby want a close race because they are in the business of selling polling services.

If everyone is saying it is close to a 10 point difference independent news services are not going to buy his poll.

[uberblonde]

4. That IS a close race, whether you like it or not.

It's certainly close enough to steal.

[bigtree]

12. we have a significant advantage statewide, and not just based on the polls

. . . but on the numbers registered and the organization on the ground in all 50 states; aided by our fundraising advantage.

That, added with the steady lead and McCain's struggle to get past his base of support isn't insignificant. I'm not advocating pessimism just because some folks can't keep a reasonable perspective.

Also, I'm not going to accept any of their likely voter models this time around, like Gallup's "Likely Expanded" :rofl:

[stoge18]

5. so the lead doubles in one day?

That suggests to me that his poll is flawed.

If other polls reflect Zogby's findings, at 1:00 PM EDT we'll see Gallup report that Obama has a 20 point lead among registered voters. :sarcasm:

[ThomWV]

6. Would you mind explaining what is wrong with either statement?

I think Obama is well advised to look very hard anytime he sees his lead in the polls slipping and by the same token Zogby was absolutely right to note that overall this race is one hell of a lot closer than we can complacently ignore while we pat ourselves on the back for winning an election that has not taken place yet.

[bigtree]

11. I certainly don't agree with his statement that,

"It suggests to me that his outward look of confidence may be as much strategy as it is real."

[ThomWV]

13. You don't see 'portraying confidence' as part of an overall campaign strategy?

It seems to me to be just another part of a well contrived whole.

[bigtree]

14. "contrived?"

I think there are good reasons for some confidence. I posted some in a response above. And, in a post here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4272540&mesg_id=4272540

[KharmaTrain]

7. Did Those Results Include His Push Polls?

It should be noted that throughout this election, Gramps has always shown stronger on poll taken over the weekend (more older folks at home, younger people out having a life) and that Obama's numbers have been pretty solid around 49-52% for several weeks now. Other pollsters say the numbers are "hardening"...and the political map is getting smaller.

Zogby's polls have been outliers all years and there's a ton of questions about both his accuracy and validity. The numbers that will really matter this week are the individual polls coming out of Ohio, Missouri, Viriginia, North Carolina and Florida this week...upticks by Obama in these polls will be very bad news for Camp Gramps.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

8. Zogby is right and the OP is wrong.

Obama is clearly in the lead, but the race is still close and it's far too soon to declare victory.

[bigtree]

10. Zogby said the 3 points raised 'red flags' for the Obama campaign

. . . and said, "It suggests to me that his outward look of confidence may be as much strategy as it is real."

Bullshit. You agree with this??

[Donald Ian Rankin]

15. I sincerely hope so.

Confidence when there's still another fortnight to go is severely misplaced. I'm sure Obama knows that better than most. On the other hand, looking confident may well be good tactics - I'm not sure.

Any confidence before Guy Fawkes night is unwise.

[bigtree]

16. I don't really know how to move forward without confidence

I think the use of that term is just not productive. We can be confident and prudent. We can be 'overconfident' and work like hell to the finish. I don't see great value in pessimism. It's too much of a gateway to cynicism which is often used to discourage voters and depress turnout.

[Phred42]

9. Don't beleive any of the polls

If you think that the Reich has control of most MSM (and I do) why would you think they some how forgot to get control of the Polls?

Don't buy it.