On This Day in 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 247

[BeatleBoot]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct18.html


Get out and volunteer NOW!

[DaveinMD]

1. Kerry

was never more than 2 points ahead in national polls and his electoral vote lead was based on one point leads in a couple of states. He never had the lead that Obama currently has. But you are right about there being lots of work to do to finish the deal.

[ryanmuegge]

2. Assuming anything, particularly with the brazen election attempts at election fraud, is foolish, but

I think we are in much better shape than back then.

257 to 247 is obviously a razor-thin margin, but Kerry was losing most of the horse-race polls. The situation is much different now.

[Arkana]

3. God fucking dammit.

That map is about 20 times weaker than Obama's is right now. Obama != Kerry, and Obama != Gore.

[DarthDem]

4. I Hear Ya . . . But . . .

. . . that map is pretty much exactly what Kerry actually GOT. The only state where he is shown with a lead that he did not win is Nevada (probably based on a tiny lead in one poll). The only reason he was leading The Idiot in EVs on that date is because that particular map had Florida (and Iowa) as tossups, assigned to neither candidate. Add in FL, IA, and NV for Bush, and that's pretty much your 2004 results map.

Also, that particular date was right after the third debate, when Kerry cleaned Dumbass' clock and reversed field, swinging back into the race in dramatic fashion. October 18 was probably his high point in terms of momentum.

So actually, things didn't change that much between that date and the date of the election.

However, no one is complacent. Really.

[MoJoWorkin]

5. Look at the STRONG category....

Kerry 88 Bush 138

Today:

Obama 250 McLizard 137


Overall:

Obama 349 McLiar 171



But YES ---Get out and work like hell!

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. They might still try to steal this election, but if they do , it will be obvious.

No matter what they say about "Bradley effect", or revising the exit polls, it will be obvious. With Obama ahead beyond the MOE nationally, and WAY ahead in the electoral college, leaving McCain with only one path to winning the electoral college, where Obama has many, it will be obvious. That, combined with the fact the narrative in the MSM (except FOX of course) is pretty solidly, consistently behind Obama. Remember, Olbermann wasn't doing MSNBC commentary in 2004; can you imagine what he'll say if all these states flip for McCain? Even conservatives are openly commenting in the media that Obama will be the next president.

They'll have to steal more than Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico; in addition, they'll have to steal Pennsylvania, and the 2004 Bush states of Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, etc. McCain has to win all the 2004 Bush states, and he is behind in eight Bush '04 states as of today. In four of those states, McCain is behind by 5 points or more; two of those are by TEN POINTS or more! In addition, the race is TIED in No. Carolina and No. Dakota!

Remember, Obama only needs to win the '04 Kerry states (which he is doing by 10 points or more in all but 2 states/14 EV's) plus 18 more EV's. He can get to 270 in any number of ways; Just by winning Virginia and New Mexico will give him 270. Obama's (and Dean's) 50 state strategy has been brilliant.

Like I said, they still might try to steal it, but this time it will be obvious, and this time, Obama won't roll over, he'll fight back.

At this point, I'm not sure McCain even cares anymore, he's probably motivated to limit the damage downticket.

I bet Bush, Cheney, Rove et al, will spend the next 2 weeks wrestling with this dilemma: Do we risk stealing another election, or should we spend the next 3 mos. shredding, rubber stamping pardons, and packing for Paraguay? :D

I'm not getting cocky, I just think the odds are overwhelmingly on our side, for once. No time for complacency!