Here's why they can't steal it - Obama's real Election Protection

[autorank]

http://usacoup.scoop.co.nz/?p=722

Michael Collins: Election 2008 -

The Difficulty Stealing It This Time

New 2008 Democratic Primary Voters Are
The Key to Election Protection

The key swing states (MO, OH, VA, FL) had 3.1 million net new primary voters in 2008 and an
aggregate 2.0 million increase in newly registered voters. There may be some overlap but the
primaries took place at the start of the year in these states and the registration drives for the
general election took off after the primaries. So they should be viewed as largely discrete figures.

These net new primary voters create problems for election thieves. If we assume a 20% turnout
increase in the four swing states considered, that comes to a total of 23 million voters. The 3.1
million net new primary voters represent 14% of that total. They can all vote. They’re all
registered and they all voted in the most recent election. They can’t be turned away easily. They
will be unlikely to become confused or intimidated by the traditional voter suppression tricks.

http://usacoup.scoop.co.nz/?p=722

[knowbody0]

1. Word!

[autorank]

12. Word 2008! Isn't this cool

All the threats of election fraud are addressed by these new primary voters in 2008 and many are
cancelled out completely. They're registered, they have been to the polls and won't likely take
any grief (or get any). They're highly motivated. 65% of new registered voters vote. The figures
are much higher for primary voters. And the new primary voters are about 14% of the estimated vote
in swing and other close states. TIA's model shows 3-4% built in fraud in elections. The 14%
wipes that out, totally.

As anaxarchos said:

It is not enough to steal votes. You need a place to stuff them. You can sell cocaine but in the end you have to explain how your Starbucks franchise brings in $80 million per year. There will be widespread fraud and caging and suppression but, as of today, I see no possible place to stuff it. It was hard enough in 2004 and that was 'close'."It is not enough to steal votes. You need a place to stuff them. You can sell cocaine but in the end you have to explain how your Starbucks franchise brings in $80 million per year. There will be widespread fraud and caging and suppression but, as of today, I see no possible place to stuff it. It was hard enough in 2004 and that was 'close'."

[knowbody0]

14. I read then re-read the entire article on scoop

amazing grace at work, my friend.

[Winterblues]

2. McCain and Palin would not be nearly so desperate if they believed they were going to steal it.

This is going to be a tidal wave of epic proportions that will sweep away Republican Slime.

[EOTE]

3. What if they're trying to get it within stealing distance?

Perhaps a 10 point lead could be overcome by stealing, but a 15 point lead can't be.

[autorank]

15. Another very good point

There will be all the normal crappy strategies from these folks, although there's a much smarter
fraud catching community out there.

They need to be closer than 10% imho but your larger point is right. Get it closer. They've had
the network shills saying it will be another close election and they also have this ridiculous
"Bradley effect" argument. So get it within striking distance of their normal strategies which
produce 3-4% theft routinely and jack it up by 50% (more would be to obvious) and it's another
'miracle' campaign.

Won't work though. It just occurred to me that the new registration voters (as opposed to the
already registered new primary voters) may go well above the normal 65% turnout because of the
violence provoking Ayers incitement.

This is Waterloo for the fascists. They're looking at certain defeat and lacking in ordinance and
troops.

[autorank]

13. Very good point.

They have their own internal polls, no b.s. stuff that closely held (both sides), and they react to
that data, in real time.

I'll bet they saw the snowball form about the time that Miss Thing started her vile incitement to
violence.

[blm]

52. I agree - Bush KNEW the fix was in, and just needed a few media owners to oblige him

by maintaining the COVER attributing his win to VALUES VOTERS and the swifts.

[Mme. Defarge]

4. A HUGE K&R!!!

[knowbody0]

5. one more kick

[ailsagirl]

6. VERY ENCOURAGING!! Thanks for posting!!

[autorank]

16. Thanks for K&$ and it's not only encouraging it's the facts - just sitting there

And there's real motivation now, even more than before.

;)

[formercia]

7. Junior turned out to be a uniter after all.

:rofl:

[autorank]

31. United in providing a block of people who are so revolted ...

... that they're willing to put aside party, prejudice, and the past to throw the bums out.

I'm not one of those who subscribe to the notion that we're looking at a coup if * and company
think they'll lose I think that's already happened with Gates USAF reorganization and firings
related to the 'missing' nuke problem a while ago. In that process, Gates fired the White House --
military intel liaison, *'s eyes and ears on the world military scene.

The claims of an ability to either delay the election or declare martial law. If they lose, they're
in trouble indefinitely.

Ironically, it's the civic exercise of the vote by citizens in enough numbers that seals their doom.
Steal it through the election process, then lose it all through the same process. They deserve a
fair trial;)

1)

1) Secretary of Air Force and USAF Chief of Staff Fired by Gates June 5, 2008

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The top military and civilian leaders of the U.S. Air Force were forced out
Thursday over the handling of nuclear weapons, the Defense Department secretary said.

2) Barack Obama may recruit defence chief Robert Gates June 29, 2008

3) New Air Force leaders lay out top priorities Aug. 15, 2008

"The acting secretary (with the new AF chief of staff present) also said senior officers fingered in
a report by Navy Adm. Kirkland Donald on the Air Force’s nuclear problems could be fired or
otherwise disciplined within weeks. ...

"The Donald report is ostensibly what led Defense Secretary Robert Gates to force the previous
secretary, Michael W. Wynne, and chief of staff, Gen. T. Michael Moseley, to resign June 5."

[formercia]

50. Fair and due process for all

Then tis off to the gaol wi' ye.

[rucky]

8. Another blessing in disguise for our tight, drawn-out primary.

[autorank]

32. Right - and those people just showed up

because they're adamant about a change. The people have come to the rescue.

[ihavenobias]

9. Rec # 10

:)

[bleever]

10. I love you, man.

"Net new primary voters" are going to make it very, very difficult to pull off sufficient disenfranchisement and vote switching to plausibly steal this one.

The only major tactic I didn't see mentioned in the article is misallocation of voting machines, but with a Democratic secretary of state in Ohio, we're not likely to see it in that state at least, and the list of swing states under strict Republican control of the electoral process is just not long enough to give them a prayer in the electoral college.

I think that next to your Urban Legend piece, this is one of your very best. I salute you, sir.

:patriot:

[autorank]

17. Does that mean I get a Bud?

Well, thank you on the UL point.

I'm going to look at the other close states. Already looked at Wisconsin - damn, what a win that
was.

Machines - yep, they can try but let them. There are people all over who will shout about this at 7:00 am local time. If that emerges, there is good precedent for extending voting hours. That keeps
at least part of those turned away.

But as Roseanna used to say, "It's always something!"

:hi:

[Shine]

11. Landslide, baby! K & R

:toast:

[Me.]

18. SNOOKERED!

And check this out as of OCT. 1/2

In Florida — Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11.

In Ohio — Palin’s favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.

In Pennsylvania — Palin’s favorability is a negative 34 - 37 percent, down from 39 - 26 percent.

http://www.prosebeforehos.com/wordpress/wp-content/cache/supercache/www.prosebeforehos.com/word-of-the-day/10/01/sarah-palins-star-begins-to-fall/index.html

Favorable/Unfavorable
CANDIDATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
MCCAIN 41 45 14
OBAMA 59 32 9
BIDEN 53 34 13
PALIN 42 52 6

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/3

[autorank]

47. Thanks for that info

At a certain point, they just can't steal it without crashing the whole system.

Of course, they crashed the whole economic system but this is much more specific. People know a
totally absurd result.

[truedelphi]

19. Cold meds making me grumpy, but

Your good news is welcome.

K & R. Thank you for all the time and effort for your writing, research and your eternal ability to put little picky facts into a larger picture.

I still worry. The government under Bush and his cronies just got handed 770 Billion dollars, and who is to say that it won't go to outright pay offs to every other Registrar of Voters in this Country?

And the Powers that Be own the Media.

They can always say that Obama stole the election, by finding one county wherein there was fraud and humping that topic until it becomes a meme.

The last time I was truly happy politically was about 7:Pm California time, November 2004. Was eating dinner at an Applebee's. Everyone was celebrating that Kerry had it. I went back in the County building to oversee the local Marin County CA elections, and when I left the County building at 11:15 Pm, Bush had Ohio in the bag. (I was not able to follow national events when inside - just the local stuff. I thought Kerry had probably won by a nice margin nationally - just like he had in Marin.)

I ain't celebrating one bit until the fat lady is singing in the South Side Churches of Chicago. And believe me, I will be joining in. Even if it is four in the morning the morning after the election.

[autorank]

33. Let her sing and then we get to begin again

I was at Tyson's Corner, VA and someone from the party stood up and said, "The exit polls show a clear
Kerry win." That's when I got very interested in exit polls. What a comedown but it's how things
work and why they must be changed.

[Contrary1]

20. Just in Indiana alone...

there are 740,970 new and updated registrations. They have to be worrying about several of the traditional red states too.



....................Not.

[Joe Chi Minh]

21. You know, Mike, I rather suspect that the world economic situation may be so

fearful, most of the "bent" election workers would fear for their future, even as free citizens - in terms of the support they would (not) get from the treasury under the Neocons. I could even see them doing a "moonlight flit" from the country, to escape the people's wrath. If they tried to impose martial law, they would be taking an enormous gamble that people at every level of society would "wear it" - including maybe the troops meant to enforce it.

In other words, this depression may be so cataclysmic, I'm not sure they have any option open to them that would not represnt a nightmare for them in some form or other.

[autorank]

49. Let's build a hotel-resort in Dubai for the overflow

I'm now reading about the 'credit swaps' issue in the corporate media. That's a whole lot of truth.

Subprime derivatives $1.2 trillion - credit default derivatives $60 Trillion

"The current risk was triggered the forgotten assumptions in the home mortgage derivatives market like recessions. Here's what's next. "The $62 trillion dollar credit derivatives market is 50 times the size of the subprime mortgage derivatives market, and is indeed larger than the entire global economy." David Amerman The Money Party (7)"

Damn!

[Joe Chi Minh]

54. Well, Paulson's clearly a hood. Soros pointed out that, it's not as if

he believed the infantile bilge of the far-right concerning the harm done by government intervention/regulation, since he in fact intervened, I think Soros said, three times in the past, successfully. (The strictures concerning the far-right are mine. George has to work with such types).

[HCE SuiGeneris]

22. You rock.

Another excellent piece of journalism... and a very welcome message!

[autorank]

25. The shipment is in for all BushDespisers!

Thanks! It's time to look at reality - they'll cheat but the old fraud won't work.

They'll work on something new, however.

I love the poster - we need VERY SMART right now and Obama is the One;)

[EFerrari]

23. I hope you're right. I don't trust anything any more. n/t

[autorank]

43. Skepticism is the reality based stance

I just think that events have outpaced the ability to control them. The fools in charge crashed the economy, carry on a war despite the deaths, and ignore threats to our very existence. If it's an accurate election result it will be a mistake not an indication that we've got a functional democracy.

The real challenge is getting anything changed even if Obama gets elected. A majority in elective office (regardless of party) will have received huge sums from the the financial community or from intermediary groups receiving huge funds from them. That's a huge obstacle.

[sarcasmo]

24. They won't steal it, the Terror attack that happens after the election and between the

Inauguration will be enough to put who the Republican's want to into power. Remember, Continuity of Government.

[tom_paine]

26. God, I HOPE this is true. n/t

[BeFree]

27. Obama will win, but...

...the congress will be stolen.

There are just too many new folks voting for Obama. It's gonna override the steal. But the seats in congress are another matter. In 2006 there was evidence that Dems should have won another 25 seats.

We haven't paid much attention to congress and maybe it is just too broad to really do any good.

[autorank]

44. The de jure change would more accurately reflect the de facto reality

I have the utmost confidence that the right will invoke every trick it can to retain power.

Switching Congress would embolden the lunatic fringe of our politics (but not politics, it's the
mainstream) to even more outrageous acts against citizens. They can't resist who they really are.

The House and Senate are effectively Republican already. You've got the Blue Dog Democrats who hide
their very reactionary positions behind budget issues. Then there are the sweet sixteen in the
Senate who can be relied up to support Bush right down the line.

I think the rear guard action to preserve fascism will fall to the federal court system. Writing
about the Susan Lindauer case has taught me that the most outrageous things can happen in federal
court and go unchallenged by that system, Congress, or the media. The right has been consistent
in placing the Federalist Society members on the court. For years, this group of federal judges
attended "seminars" at luxury resorts paid for by Richard Melon Scaife. They'll need to be
retired or impeached to get anything real done. That's a good reason to get a Republican House,
come to think of it;)

[BeFree]

53. Good reason? Huh, not getting that

Sure congress has its wrong headed members. I contend that sad fact is due to the voting machines. And we shall see a very unlikely number of pubbies selected this time. By all rights, the congress should be a solid majority of the opposition party come next year, as it probably would have been sans the machines selecting their favs.

Like I say, it may be beyond our limited abilities at this point to effect any change since we've failed to get rid of the machines. However that won't stop me from doing my best Paul Revere styled action.

[althecat]

28. I hope you are right Autorank....

:kick:

However I am yet to be convinced..... the plausible explanation for a McCain victory is being actively prepared and disseminated. And this time the exit poll data is going to be pre massaged from the look of things which will take away the biggest red flag that we have had to wave in the previous four elections.

[truedelphi]

37. And there's nothing that says that the voting machines have to be delivered

On time.

Wouldn't surprise me if many of them turn up at the polling places the DAY AFTER.

[autorank]

42. Thanks for the vote of conficence;)

I'm demanding a recount!

We can't lose. If I'm right, there will be a winner selected by the majority.

If I'm wrong, then the entire country figures out all at once - a mass awakening - that the system is entirely rigged.

Very few who are conscious with a pulse will believe the results. Even the true believers on the right won't buy it, although they'd take the win and power without hesitation. When absurd events happen, the government simply lacks the legitimacy to govern. Dictatorships can operate under those conditions - meaningless elections - but it won't work in a nation where, until recently, a large majority of citizens thought that their votes were actually counted properly. That belief is no longer there, between 40% to 50% doubting the 2004 election (as of 2006). Combine an obvious fraudulent election with the massive sense of betrayal for those who think the system's legitimate and you've got a dangerous situation. It's not hard to imagine a movement started by some states to break up the country under those circumstances. Why would California, Oregon and Washington stick around.

[Imagevision]

29. I agree, if no voter theft/fraud? - Obama will landslide McPalin - then she can get the fuck outta h

[glitch]

30. Yes but they are purging 1 in 5 votes in CO and elsewhere, 20%.

Which brings us back to within stealing range. And they don't need to purge the new registrations, they can purge old ones.

[autorank]

39. 20% from 2004-2006 - New Primary Voters tested their status when they voted

The newly registered voters can't be purged easily with out huge risk to the purgers.

New primary voters already tested their registrations. Colorado may be different.

Did they check voter eligibility for Colorado's popularity contest? These are private elections thanks to the anti democratic move of the Governor to stop state payment for primary elections. My guess is that the criteria listed by the state - Colorado citizenship and Democratic registration are all it takes. If that was verified, party registration, then it's a secondary validation of state registration and part of my model applies. If not, Colorado's an exception.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-01-voting-rolls_N.htm

"The databases are only as good as the information fed into them by applicants and election officials. That can lead to human errors as well as variations from state to state. Colorado, for instance, knocked nearly 20% of its voters off the rolls between the 2004 and 2006 elections. Arkansas purged 3%, according to Election Assistance Commission data. SNIP

"Perhaps the worst problems are in Florida, where a Gannett News Service analysis found more than 14,000 people whose voter registrations were disputed by the state because they didn't match other databases; about 75% are minorities. A federal district court ruled last month that the state couldn't deny registrations based on database matching."

Colorado would be a good state for this given the 'closeness' of the race there.

The NYT article on this is great: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

Had to laugh at the response of the Co Scty of State - his office couldn't respond to the NYT article
above because of an 'internal communication' problem. What a jack ass. My guess: the NYT busted this guy and he couldn't respond because he needed time to reverse his deliberate actions.

We'll see.

Colorado Precinct Caucuses 2008
Republicans 1.0 mil/Democrats 0.9 mil.

Obama 80,000
Clinton 39,000
Other--Other 1000
TOTAL--120,000

Romney--42
McCain--13
Huckabee--9
Paul--6
TOTAL--70,000


The disparity in interest between the parties in 2008 is significant, particularly since the parties
are have pretty even numbers in registrations.

Virginia would offset Colorado in the election math. In 2005, the largest section of the state,
Northern Virginia, was 60-40% Democrat. It's going to be much stronger this time - 65%-35% maybe.
2005 voting in Virginia cities - Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Richmond - was very low. The totals for
the 2008 primary were huge because the cities and the No. Virginia 'burbs showed up big time.
If you vote in the primary in Virginia, you will have no trouble voting in the general. It could
be a wipe out.

[glitch]

55. I really really really hope you are right. Really.

From what I've read here on DU people who have been registered for years are having their registrations tossed.

And I am not sure true believers care too much about risk.

[Kaleko]

34. Great, great work, Michael.

Why is there no Digg button on your site? I wanna dig the hell out of your article.

[mzmolly]

35. I hope this is correct.

I admit to a bit of hand wringing.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mod mom]

38. Yeah, but what do you know about elections?

;)

I've been meaning to write you. When MCM spoke at the Free Press conference, He held up his book of essays and said there were many goods ones in there but make sure you don't miss the one by Michael Collins-it's great!

Working w Team Obama & ODP. Sharing a lot of info :hi:

BTW I'm no longer considered a CT by my own party.


Here's our Stats: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x508993#508996

[althecat]

41. Hi Mod mom.....

[mod mom]

57. Hey Al

:hi: right back at ya!

[althecat]

59. And then I started this thread......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7415107

It has pictures stats and all sorts.

:yourock:

Al

[autorank]

45. Well, that's some story.

Yikes!

We'll form a New Democratic Party (no Money Party members allowed;)

:hi:

Graph from the article - major swing states:


3.1 new voters in 2008 in these states compared to 2004 primary

So, will Brunner come through and get a reasonable facsimile of an election out there?
I'm still worried about the lack of action on the destroyed ballots. Those people are
still Elections Directors?

The press on registration databases, mainstream, is encouraging. The SOS's are now on notice
from at least USA Today and the NYT, which ran a kick ass article ... and SOS's in Colorado and
Nevada felt compelled to respond and show that she was "wrong." I take that to mean that she
was right but they fixed the fix and then said, "Oh no, not us."

NYT articles by IAN URBINA

Original

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html

Response of states

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/us/10voting.html?_r=1&sq=registration%20databases&st=cse&oref=slogin&scp=1&pagewanted=print

[althecat]

58. Is amusing that the example of Volusia County example is used here...

"The Times’s methodology for calculating the purge estimates was reviewed by two voting experts, Kimball Brace, the director of Election Data Services, a Washington consulting firm that tracks voting trends, and R. Michael Alvarez, a political science professor at the California Institute of Technology.

By using the Social Security database so extensively, states are flagging extra registrations and creating extra work for local officials who are already struggling to process all the registration applications by Election Day.

“I simply don’t have the staff to keep up,” said Ann McFall, the supervisor of elections in Volusia County, Fla.

It takes 10 minutes to process a normal registration and up to a week to deal with a flagged one, said Ms. McFall, a Republican, adding that she was receiving 100 or so flagged registrations a week.

Usually, when state election officials check a registration and find that it does not match a database entry, they alert local election officials to contact the voter and request further proof of identification. If that is not possible, most states flag the voter file and require identification from the voter at the polling place.

In Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and South Dakota, the problem is more serious because voters are not added to the rolls until the states remove the flags.

Ms. McFall said she was angry to learn from the state recently that it was her responsibility to contact each flagged voter to clear up the discrepancies before Election Day. “This situation with voter registrations is going to land us in court,” she said."

[Lil Missy]

40. K&R

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

46. The last two cycles were always going to come down to one or two states. Not this year

An election can be stolen fairly easily with judicial help to prevent votes from being counted or by rigging the voting in one close state in a very tight election. This time around there are so many major Obama incursions into states that voted for the Chimp that no one can tell which one or two will be the most critical. Just think about this: VA, NC, NV, CO, NM, FL and OH are all O ahead or within the MOE. There are too many brush fires for the pukes to know where the tipping point will be.

[autorank]

48. Right

Where to fix it. 2004 was easy by comparison and in actuality, it took months of planning.

That's a refreshing list.

[salguine]

51. Don't think they won't try. I wouldn't let my guard down.

[klook]

56. Great analysis

I am very realistic about the Republican vote-stealing machine. But this time the huge number of new voters, plus the multi-front battle (Thanks, Howard Dean, for the 50-state strategy!) make it very difficult for the election thieves to pull it off again.

[Joe Chi Minh]

60. Fabulous, Mike.