Election 2008: Minnesota Senate

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Thursday, October 09, 2008
As the electoral landscape continues to look bleak for Republicans, Al Franken has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in Minnesota’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race. Support for Independent candidate Dean Barkley could have a significant impact on the final outcome of the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Franken with 43% of the vote, Coleman with 37%, and Barkley with 17%. This is the largest advantage Franken has enjoyed all year. A month ago, Coleman was up by a point.

Franken leads by fourteen points among women but trails by a single point among men.

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However, a key factor in the race is that only 3% are absolutely certain they will vote for Barkley. If the election were held today, it is likely that his actual vote total would end up somewhere between the 17% who say they would vote for him and the 3% who refuse to choose one of the major party candidates as an option.

If those uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are added to the totals, it’s Franken 50% and Coleman 46%. This suggests that the outcome could be determined by which Barkley supporters stay with the Independent candidate and which choose to vote for one of the major party candidates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_senate