The mystery of the missing opium

[seemslikeadream]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/

Map of the week: The mystery of the missing opium
Mark Easton 8 Oct 08, 11:27 GMT It's a mystery that has got British law enforcement officials and others across the planet scratching their heads. Put bluntly, enough heroin to supply the world's demand for years has simply disappeared.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) describes the situation as "a time bomb for public health and global security".

This week's Map of the Week comes courtesy of the UNODC. It shows their latest estimate of opium production in Afghanistan - another bumper year.



A crop of 7,700 tonnes will produce around 1,100 tonnes of heroin - it basically works on a 7:1 ratio.The mystery is that the global demand for heroin is less than half that. In other words, Afghanistan only needs to produce 3,500 tonnes to satisfy every known heroin user on the planet.

Look at the graph, though.







There are two credible theories.

Theory 1: A large and undocumented market has opened up in countries which don't want to admit the problem. Russia has long been in denial over the scale of its heroin problem and the same may be true in emerging drug markets like Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

The Iranians are certainly increasingly anxious about the opium fields on their doorstep. Border guards and police have been involved in deadly shoot-outs with smugglers with experts suggesting that there are now a million heroin users in Iran.

But the over-supply is so great that it is hard to conceive of it all disappearing in to the blood-streams of new addicts in Tehran and Ashgabat.

Theory 2: Vast quantities of heroin and morphine are being stockpiled. Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UNODC is convinced that is the only explanation. In a recent bulletin he issues an urgent order: 'Find the missing opium.' "As a priority, intelligence services need to examine who holds this surplus, where it may go, and for what purpose" he says. "We know little about these stockpiles of drugs, besides that they are not in the hands of farmers."

[Schema Thing]

1. Obviously...

...Zales has gotten into the Opium business.

[AlCzervik]

2. Maybe Karzai can ask his brother?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/world/asia/05afghan.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[NNN0LHI]

3. Somebody is hoarding heroin

Probably a better investment than the stock market.

Don

[amdezurik]

4. Pappy bush and the CIA

have been in that biz for decades, count on them knowing exactly where it is...

[yardwork]

7. That was my first thought, too.

[defendandprotect]

9. "Poppy" Bush . . . agree . . . long involvement ---

[Wiley50]

5. Theory 3: Legitimate medical stockpiling

I am a legitimate medical patient who has been legally medicated by my doctor with morphine that is of organic origin (afaik)

The middle stage between raw opium and heroin is morphine base.

There is a possibility that the missing opium is being hoarded by pharmaceutical companies for medical uses.

Just an idea

[TheWraith]

11. Maybe, but that would still be illegal.

Medical companies have to declare and license opiates purchased for the production of morphine. If it's not being declared, it's not legal.

[kittykitty]

6. Maybe it was in the white boxes the Marines were stockpiling at the Marriot in Islamabad when

there was a terrorist explosion about Sept. 21. There was a report of many huge white boxes/trunks with unknown contents. I believe they were blown up in the attack.

http://www.daily.pk/politics/politicalnews/7422-what-was-mysterious-activity-going-on-in-the-marriott-hotel-islamabad-by-united-states-marines.html

Long link to Pakistan Daily Sept. 21, 2008

snip> "Though it would never get confirmed but the fire on the fifth and fourth floor of the hotel broke out because those flours were housing the mysterious steel boxes under the heavy guard of United States marines and no one including the Pakistani security forces and the security men of the hotel were allowed to go near with the them. These boxes were shifted inside the hotel when the Admiral Mike Mullen met Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and others in Islamabad." <Snip

[Liberal In Texas]

8. What's the implication? That they're going to dump it on

US urban streets just in time for the election?

[arcadian]

10. Gonna distribute it to the masses when the system collapses.

incapacitate them, i don't know :shrug: