Post debate analysis - 2nd presidential debate

[olshak]

This was supposed to be John McCain’s element; the Town Hall. By the end, McCain looked like a grumpy old man clumsily wandering around the platform while getting his head handed to him by Barack Obama. His attacks and attempts at humor all fell flat, and even led to him walking right into Obama’s best hit of the night. He even referred to Obama as “that one” while answering a question. In essence, we saw a lost and frustrated John McCain tonight, and this debate won’t make things any better for him.

McCain held off on some of the more personal attacks that his campaign has been playing up of late, instead sticking with the tried and true misrepresentations of Obama’s positions. There was little new ground covered tonight, except for a McCain economic proposal for a second bailout, sure to draw the wrath of conservatives and liberals alike.

Scores are on a 10 point scale and reflect the substance of the answer and the manner of delivery.

The blow by blow:

Question One: Economy / Solution for Elderly

Obama started with some typical stump speech points, noting the de-regulation and trickle down economics that have led to the current mess. He then got specific on what to do, noting that is starts with the rescue plan, and then continues with middle class tax cuts and helping out the economy with infrastructure projects. he also cited the need to improve health care and energy to improve the economy.

McCain responded with the need to achieve energy independence and to keep taxes low for everyone. He talked about home values and amazingly offered a new proposal under which the government would buy up $300 billion dollars of mortgages to help stabilize home ownership, failing to note that the federal government has this option as a part of the approved bailout. This was tonight’s “Hail Mary” from McCain and sure to draw ire from both sides of the aisle in terms of adding to the bailout. While the proposal seems bold at first blush, it seems more like a gimmick to appear connected to the pain of homeowners.

The question was extended to ask who the candidates would consider for Treasury Secretary. McCain shot back with “not you” to Tom Brokaw, seemingly a joke that fell flat, but didn’t have the feel of a joke. He ultimately mentioned Obama advisor Warren Buffet and mentioned Meg Whitman. Obama mentioned Buffet as well, but focused on affirming his economic policies than speculating on this.

Obama 7, McCain 7

Question Two: Bailout; what will it accomplish?

McCain immediately reframed it from a bailout to a rescue. He again exaggerated his “suspension” of his campaign to attend to the crisis. He also repeated the hard to believe prospect that he would seek to protect taxpayers through oversight (regulation). He then blamed the crisis on Fannie and Freddie, and somehow managed to blame Obama by name for the risky loans that had been made. Huh? He then had to nerve to call out Obama for receiving lobbying dollars, conveniently forgetting the controversy surround his own campaign staff. He wrapped up by reiterating mis mortgage proposal. The impression I was left with from this answer was that he went out throwing wild punches, not scoring on a single one.

Obama responded by noting the need to get the credit market moving again, noting that small businesses need help to keep their businesses moving. He corrected McCain, noting that the greatest problem was the de-regulation that had taken place, all supported by John McCain. He talked about providing warnings two years ago, but that his warnings were not addressed. He then noted that a year ago he sought regulations, and that McCain had opposed such action. he also pointed out that McCain had only jumped onto a piece of legislation a year after it was created, rather than being truly at the front end of the warnings. He ended by calling out McCain’s campaign staff and the amount of money they received from Fannie and Freddie.

The question then morphed to whether it would get worse before it got better. Obama said no, and that he was confident that we would turn things around, but this requires leadership. He also noted the need for new and better regulations and to provide help for families trying to stay in their homes. McCain said that the answer depended on what we do, citing the need to buy up the mortgage loans and eliminate the influence of special interests.

Obama 7, McCain 3

Question Three: How can we trust either of you with our money while both parties are responsible for the current crisis?

Obama acknowledged the questioner’s frustration and cynicism, and said there was enough blame to go around. But he then honed in on the Bush administration, noting that Bush inherited budget surpluses and squandered them while nearly doubling the national debt. He, of course, pointed out McCain’s consistent support of Bush’s budgets. He then talked about the need to reform health care, to deal with the energy situation and stop sending our money overseas, to improve education, and to engage in deep spending cuts through program elimination and eliminating the influence of special interests.

McCain also reflected the questioner’s cynicism and mistrust, and pointed out that he was a reformer with a history of taking on special interests… specifically noting campaign finance reform. he stressed the need for bi-partisanship while stating that Obama has never stood up to his own party. He then labeled Obama a liberal spender who voted for the energy bill granting corporate tax breaks. He accused Obama of supporting every spending bill that came along, specifically citing a pork item for a planetarium in Chicago. he concluded by noting that energy independence was key.

Brokaw then morphed the question to ask the candidates to place three items in priority order: health care, energy, and entitlements. McCain dodged the question or else blew it, stating that we could tackle all three at once and there was no need to set priorities. Obama made McCain look completely out of synch with reality by noting that we have to prioritize, and that he would take on the energy situation first, call for a ten year, $15 billion project to achieve energy independence. e called this a national security issue and said that this must get done first. he then cited moving on to address health care, and actually placed education third - rather than entitlements. he said it was important to look at the revenues coming in as well as the money going out, and reiterated that McCain was advocating $300 billion in tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy. This was not a good question for the McCain campaign.

Obama 9, McCain 3

Question Four: What sacrifices will you seek from the American people?

This was a great question. McCain started by saying that he would ask people to understand that we need to cut programs and agencies. he noted how he has saved the taxpayers money with respect to military contracts, said he would eliminate earmarks, and reiterated the need for a spending freeze for all but military and veteran’s programs. He then went back to the earlier answer, trying to push the idea that he could get everything done at once.

Obama reflected on 9/11 and the sense at the time that the nation was willing to come together. He said that Bush started off well, but eventually squandered the good will that existed at that time. Obama said he needed Americans to think about how we use energy to save energy in our homes and buildings, and to seek fuel efficient cars, and to winterize homes. Obama said he would double the size of the Peace Corps and seek to expand volunteerism.

Brokaw added a question on how we break our debit and credit habits. Obama said that those in Washington need to be better role models and not run up debt. He reiterated the need to look at both revenue and expenses, and to expect the wealthy to share the burden with the rest of America. He criticized McCain’s call for a spending freeze, noting that it was like using a hatchet when a scalpel was needed. McCain responded with an insult on how Obama’s tax cut proposals have supposedly changed on a regular basis. He then had the nerve to compare Obama to Herbert Hoover, accusing him of wanting to raise taxes during a financial crisis. He then reiterated the false claim that Obama’s tax plan would hurt small businesses. During this rant, he was very condescending towards Obama, coming off as a bitter and angry guy with no ideas of his own. He ended with the need to double the child tax credit and the need for a health care credit.

Brokaw then offered a further extension of the question, asking if the candidates would address entitlement programs in their first two years in office. Obama said they would need to be addressed soon, but he would only assure that it would be addressed during his first term. He went back to his tax cut package, chiding McCain by stating that the Straight Talk Express had lost a wheel when discussing his tax cut proposal. He reiterated that 95% of Americans (anyone under $200,000 a year) would get a tax cut under his plan. He noted that the overwhelming majority of small businesses make under $250,000 and would benefit as well. He wrapped up by again calling attention to McCain’s tax plan, which would provide money to corporations and the wealthy. Mccain responded by stating that fixing Social security would not be hard, but that edicare would be a different story. He called for a commission to offer recommendations, akin to the base closing commission that manages the closing of military bases. He ended with a reiteration of how Obama would tax us to death.

Obama 9, McCain 6

Question Five: Environmental Issues

McCain offered that he took sharp exception with the Bush administration on environmental issues. He said the best answer was to drastically expand use of nuclear power, which he called “safe and clean.” He stated that we also needed to move towards hybrid cars, as well as hydrogen-powered and battery-powered cars.

Obama said he saw this as an opportunity for the United States to create a new energy economy which said would (conservatively) create at least five million new jobs. He added that this required us making an up front investment, which related back to his earlier proposal. He reiterated that this is a national security issue and saw the solution as a combination of factors including solar, geo-thermal, and nuclear power. He reminded voters that in 26 years in Congress, John McCain had voted to oppose alternative fuel investments on 23 occasions. He then also commented on additional drilling, saying that massive additional drilling and reliance on fossil fuels will only aggravate the crisis for the environment.


Brokaw then asked if we needed a nationalized effort like the Manhattan Project, or if this should be done through private industry. McCain said it was appropriate to have the U.S. government provide the initial investment and research and to then turn it over to the private sector. McCain reiterated that Obama had supported an energy bill that included tax breaks for corporations, but made a rather large gaffe in referring to Obama as “that one” in a highly condescending manner. He finished by saying that additional drilling would serve as the “bridge” until we achieve energy independence through alternative sources of power. Brokaw seemed more conscious of time at this point and pushed on without providing a rebuttal opportunity to Obama.

Obama 9, McCain 6

Question Six: Is health care a commodity?

Obama opened with the statement that health care is breaking family budgets and that there is a moral commitment for the government to do something. Obama laid out his plan, saying that if you have health care and like your plan, there would be no changes, except that the government would negotiate lower premiums. If you don’t have health care, Obama said he would offer the opportunity to the same health care that he and Senator McCain enjoy, with coverage for pre-existing conditions. He noted that McCain’s plan would offer a tax credit, but then tax health care deductions for the first time, and would also take away the flexibility to establish additional regulatory requirements. He then pointed out that a collection of business organizations had come out “today” to say that the McCain plan was not acceptable.

McCain came out with the statement that a major goal of health care reform was to increase efficiency. He said Obama wants the government to do this and would impose mandates. He also said that Obama would impose fines for those not participating, and rudely chided Obama on how much those fines would be - note that this claim has already been discredited, so McCain was once again re-hashing a dead talking point. McCain said that under his own plan 95% of Americans would have additional money to purchase their own health care.

Brokaw then asked the question of the night - is health care a privilege, a right, or a responsibility? McCain started with the comment that health care is a responsibility of the individual, and that people understand their responsibilities. He said government mandates made him “nervous.” Obama shot back with one of the highlights of the debate, saying that health care was a right for every American. he then recalled the story of his own mother, who died of cancer at age 53 and who had to argue with insurance companies over what medical expenses would be covered. He countered McCain saying that there would be no mandate and that businesses would receive 50% tax credits to offset the expense of providing health care. He noted the importance of providing all children with health care, arguing that children are not expensive to cover - he then reminded people that McCain voted against providing coverage to those children without it. He said that the government must crack down on insurance companies that cheated their customers, and that McCain’s for shopping health care across state lines would not work because companies would simply set up shop from the state most advantageous to them, which would hurt individuals. This question ended with a sarcastic comment from McCain noting that Obama hadn’t shared how much the fines would be. Like many things that McCain said, this fell flat and just seemed rude.

Obama 9, McCain 4

Question Seven: About the U.S. role as a peace-maker

McCain began by connecting with the person asking the question, who was a veteran. he stated that we need to have a strong economy in order to sustain a strong military. He called the United States the greatest force for good in the history of the world and that the challenge is to know when to go in to another nation. He reiterated the need for knowledge, experience and judgment and pointed to his own record regarding Lebanon, Serbia, Kosovo, and the Gulf War. He stated that Obama was wrong about the surge and about Russia and “does not understand.”


Obama slammed McCain back by saying that McCain was right, Obama didn’t understand… he didn’t understand how we erroneously invaded Iraq despite it having no link to 9/11 or the war on terror, and then Obama continued on how he didn;t understand the repeated errors in judgment by both Bush and McCain. He said the war in Iraq was a strain on our troops and a strain on our economy, to the tune of $10 billion a month. He repeated that Iraq has a $79 billion surplus and that we should be able to take our money off the table. He agreed that the U.S. is a force for good but that history shows that economics and military power are tied together. He said respect for the U.S.. has been diminished abroad and that is preventing us from doing what we should in Darfur; we lack resources and allies.

Brokaw then asked what the Obama and McCain “doctrines” would be for the use of U.S. force when our national security was not threatened, but where we have a humanitarian interest. Obama said tha we would act when thee were moral issues at stake, noting that we would act to prevent a Holocaust or what happened in Rwanda. If there is genocide or ethnic cleansing, we have a responsibility to act. Obama went on to state that there is a lot of cruelty in the world, and that we can’t be everywhere. Thus, we need allies… it’s not just about boots on the ground, the U.S. can also provide logistical and air support. McCain started with a repeat of his nonsense on Iraq, falsely asserting that Iranian influence has been abated by our presence in Iraq. He indicated that we do need to act to prevent genocide, but we also need to intervene where we can actually impact the situation. He stated we need a steady hand, and he had argued against intervention in Somalia and Lebanon. He also stated we would never again allow repeats of the Holocaust or of Rwanda.

Obama 9, McCain 8

Question Eight: Should the U.S. respect Pakistan’s sovereignty?

Obama stated we face a difficult situation in Pakistan and reiterated that we made a bad decision going into Iraq - we got distracted, and bin Laden was allowed to escape. he noted al Qaeda is now stronger as a result, and that the war on terrorism begins and end in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He said we needed more troops in Afghanistan and to change our policies in Pakistan, pointing out that we had coddled a hated dictator in Pakistan and now need to encourage democracy, providing aid but insisting on a crackdown against terrorists. Obama repeated that if we can act against al Qaeda and Pakistan won’t, then we will.

McCain stated this his hero was Teddy Roosevelt, who argued that you should speak softly and carry a big stick. he then misrepresented Obama’s position on “attacking” Pakistan, saying Obama would “announce” the attack. McCain stated we made a mistake being absent from Afghanistan after the Russians were driven out. He called Pakistan critical and said we need their support and that we use the same strategy in pakistan that we have used in Iraq.

Obama then insisted on a follow-up, essentially pushing Brokaw off to the side. he corrected McCain and said that no one has called for an invasion of Pakistan, but that if Pakistan was unable or unwilling to take action, then the U.S. would act. he then slammed McCain for the “speak softly” comment by stating that it isn’t speaking softly to sing “Bomb, bomb Iran” and to call for the annihilation of North Korea, as well as saying “Next up, Baghdad” while we were engaged in Afghanistan. We reiterated that we were having trouble in Pakistan because of our coddling of Musharraf. McCain then started off with a complete non-sequitor and seemed lost in the conversation. he said the Iran comment was a joke with a veteran that has been blown out of proportion. McCain said he knew how to handle this, once again misrepresenting Obama’s words, and said he wouldn’t telegraph our punches.

Brokaw then added a question about recent comments from military commanders in Afghanistan that we cannot win there. How can we change Afghanistan? Obama said it starts with Iraq taking responsibility for itself so that we can withdraw and put more troops in Afghanistan. He said we need to work with the Afghan government to be better to its own people, as it was not responsive right now. McCain reiterated that should apply our Iraq strategy to Afghanistan and once again ripped Obama for not being willing to admit that he was “wrong” about the surge, again failing to note Obama’s actual comments.

Obama 9, McCain 6

Question Nine: How do we put pressure on Russia without staring another cold war?

McCain said we won’t have another cold war. He said Russia’s behavior us outside the norm and talked in cold war thinking about Putin being a product of the KGB. He said we should be concerned for Georgia and the Ukraine, needing to provide moral support and to support the admission of these nations into NATO. He said Russia needs to see penalties for their actions in Georgia and to work with our allies in Europe.

Obama said there is a resurgence of Russia that is a central issue and mostly agreed with McCain, but said we needed to provide more than moral support. He said we need to help re-build the economies of former Soviet republics. He also said it was important to anticipate and “see around corners” regarding future disputes and to be proactive rather than reactive. He noted that he has warned in April about Russian peacekeepers being in the disputed territories. He called out Bush and McCain for “muddling through’ IN Afghanistan, noting that it wasn’t important at that time (according to Bush) to catch bin Laden. He said energy independence was a key to dealing with Russia and would cut off some of the money they use to act aggressively.

Brokaw than asked if Russia was the new “evil empire.” Obama said it was evil behavior, but this was not the Soviet Union, but they have dangerous impulses. McCain said “maybe” and contextualized this answer fairly effectively, also noting the need to gain energy independence. He stated that we can deal with the Russians.

Obama 7, McCain 6

Question Ten: If Iran attacks Israel, will we wait for the U.N. Security Council before taking action?

McCain stated that the U.S. would not await U.N. approval, mostly because China and Russia might well opposed military action. He said Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and this represents a threat to the entire region. He then once again dove into the “pre-conditions” nonsense that hasn’t worked before, not understanding that most Americans understand what Obama was communicating and that diplomacy is better than the silent treatment. He called for sanctions along with allies and then again floated the “league of democracies” concept that fell flat. McCain did again articulate that we could never allow a second Holocaust.

Obama responded with the statement that Iran can not be allowed to acquire nukes… that it would be a “game changer.” He said military options are never off the table and that the U.S. would not wait for U.N. approval to act. He said he would use all tools, including diplomacy. he cited the need for tougher sanctions, direct talk, and becoming free of imported oil as tools in the arsenal. he said that diplomacy must demonstrate that there are consequences and benefits and that diplomacy may not work, but must be tried.

Obama 7, McCain 6

Question Eleven: What don’t you know, and how will you learn it?

Obama made the joke that Michelle knows better than he does what he doesn’t know. he said the challenges of the presidency are immense and that it is the challenges you don’t expect that define a presidency. He recalled his own story in becoming successful to point out America’s greatness, and ended by saying that we can’t repeat what has been going on for the last eight years. He said we need the courage now to move in a new direction.

McCain responded that situations will change both here and abroad, and that he has spent his whole life serving his country and preparing for this opportunity. He said that he knows what tough times are like, and believes this country needs a steady hand to guide it.

Obama 5, McCain 5

Final Score: Obama 87, McCain 60

McCain needed a knockout, but was instead left reeling. He and his campaign seem directionless and without ideas, and this became clear as the debate went on. Obama has stayed on message, been effective and given a more presidential performance than McCain. In the increasing feud for the decreasing pool of undecided voter, McCain didn’t do himself any favors last night.