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if we have a depression we are looking at 20-50% unemployment and 10% or more GNP contraction... in my view if this is the case... we are looking at ten years and the country will be changed in ways that will make it unrecognizable. It will also lead to quite possibly 20 million dead, 50 or more million economic refugees, etcetera. We may even see social crisis the way we have not since oh the 1930s.
A deep recession (which is what I am hoping for at this time), will take most of the Obama first term, if not all of it. It will lead to upwards of 20% unemployment, with a GNP contraction UNDER 10%... it still will be very painful and in order for that not to become a great depression we need a series of legislative measures.
There is more
The Great Depression took 1T and ten years (and some historians argue a world war) to get out off.
Now if I take into account that pesky thing called inflation we are looking at least at 12T... read that number again... 12 T.
So the "bailout" is just the beginning of what it will cost to get out of it.
Now if John McHoover gets elected you ARE looking at a great depression... if Obama gets elected with a Dem congress, as blue dogs, they will fight the necessary changes legislatively, including the social net and re-regulation of the markets. That said... the Dems tend to be MORE flexible than the Rs... so we will have to keep the pressure
That said... for all who believe that the package passed it would immediately affect this... that is not the way things work... it took us at LEAST two years to get here... it is not instant... and it will take anywhere from 3-5 weeks to see the INITIAL effect... and we will need MORE BILLS to be passed to deal with different aspects of this mess
Many of us (rather a few of us) have tried to 'splain that this is but the first of many legislative passages to deal with multiple things and I am betting that like the early depression (this bill has aspects of that), folks round these parts will keep fighting it... because most folks believe the New Deal was one thing... wrong, it was six major legislative packages... the bailout is not even to that level... and many targeted packages
Anyhow... if anybody believes that the New Deal also emerged Athena like from FDR's head... that is magical thinking. It came from the times, as a way to short circuit the commies... but I am sure you knew that.. and I will repeat this... took YEARS to talk form.
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