-- Intrade.com Political Futures Market: EFFECTS of the VP Debate

[LVZ]

I won't ask who won - that is one of those "depends upon how you define won". Palin beat her abysmally low expectations. She knows how to speak in generalities, buzzwords and talking points - this will please the Republican base (that is their native language.) Palin is unlikely to impress the intelligentsia, either left or right. Biden played it safe and that was probably wise. Why take any risk when you are so far ahead?

What I think one should look at are the likely effects of the debate.

1) no significant SNL moments to embarrass the McCain/Palin campaign

2) reassure those who had major doubts among the McCain base voters

3) no change in momentum for the election - she did neither harm nor good

One way to access the likely results is to view the Intrade political futures after the debate:



1) Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate before 2008 presidential election?

Before debate: 9.9%
After debate: 4.5%

2) John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election?

Before debate: 35.6%
After debate: 33.2%

By this measure, Palin helped herself (a pattern) a lot but did absolutely nothing for improving the prospects for the McCain/Palin campaign.

[JCMach1]

1. SNL moment= shout out and THE WINK

ARG!

[AzNick]

3. And Joe Six Pack... And can I call you Joe....

And speaking like a drone.

[MiniMe]

2. All of the "ya"s were driving me crazy

For a politician, pronounce the word you.

[LVZ]

4. McCain Prediction $$ Chart ...