Races for Michigan GOP Reps. Walberg, Knollenberg Now Rated Tossups

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Races for Michigan GOP Reps. Walberg, Knollenberg Now Rated Tossups
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff


A tossup race this year seemed like a strong possibility for eight-term Michigan Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg . He survived a close 2006 contest in suburban Detroit’s 9th District, which is closely divided between the two major parties. The Democrats’ challenge to freshman Republican Tim Walberg looked like more of a long-shot, if only because GOP voting habits are generally strong in the south-central 7th District he represents.

But as both contests head into the home stretch, the outcomes appear highly uncertain, prompting CQ Politics to change its rating on each to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

There are two common threads between these races, the only two in Michigan’s 15 districts that are rated as competitive. Both Republicans survived unexpectedly close races in 2006 over little-known Democratic opponents, with Knollenberg winning by a career-low 5 percentage-point margin and Walberg winning by just 4 points. And these close shaves drew top-tier Democratic recruits in this year’s contests, with Walberg facing Mark Schauer, the minority leader in the state Senate, and Knollenberg battling Gary Peters, a former state senator who is a familiar figure in the 9th District.

In both contests, the most recent polling indicated the Democratic challengers were essentially tied with the Republican incumbents. Surveys on the congressional races taken before both parties’ political conventions about a month ago, conducted by the Lansing-based EPIC-MRA, indicated that Schauer was within the margin of error against Walberg, 43 percent to 40 percent, in the 7th District. In the 9th District, Knollenberg led former state Sen. Gary Peters 43 percent to 36 percent, but Peters took the lead (43 percent to 39 percent) once pollsters outlined the two men’s biographies, including their ages. Peters is 49 years old while Knollenberg is 75.

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