Ladies, gents and undecideds, do you get the feeling that we're heading for a landslide here? In the last couple of weeks, several things have happened which hint at Obama romping to victory in November with a comfortable margin. The political stats site Fivethirtyeight.com (
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ) which combines and weights polls to produce what is probably the most complete overview around, predicts that if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would end up with 336 electoral votes to McCain's 202. There's a lot of reasons for that, some of which are beyond Obama's control but here's a few:
- The economy. John McCain has repeatedly said that he doesn't know much about the economy. No shit, Captain Obvious? Obama's economic plan is rich, detailed to the point of being boring and plausable. In the endlessly repeated Wall St / Main St dichotomy (guys, find a new metaphor, I'm begging you!), McCain wears expensive loafers, has a private jet and so many houses that he loses track of them. Obama was still paying off his student loans a couple of years ago, drives a modest family car and needs a new pair of shoes. Which guy would you trust to understand how much difference a hundred bucks a month makes?
- Palin. Oh lord, Palin. Either Sarah Palin is a moron or this is the greatest work in human history. It's difficult to say which is worse, the growing impression provided by her interviews that she has the brains of a stunned herring or the fact that in areas she actually understands, she's actively evil (see the rape kit thing). The number of Palin inanities is starting to approach Chimpy Bush levels and that has spawned several best-selling books.
- Lies and damned lies. McCain's campaign has been spitting out more outright lies than Goebbals or possibly St. Ralph the Liar (Swampy, got a graphic for that one?). Now, Republicans lying in campaigns is nothing new but getting called on them is. Not only is McCain lying his ass off in his adverts but, when called on them, he actively restates the lie. When it was pointed out that the ad implying Senator Obama supported sex ed for kindergarteners was a huge lie, McCain just restated it. Moreover, as he's called on them, McCain starts getting increasingly irritable.
- Letterman. Do not underestimate this one, Letterman's audience is enormous and they are loyal. Ducking out of Letterman's show and lying about it and Letterman's three-day evisceration of him for it will have reduced McCain to a punchline for many of those viewers.
- The debate. Opinions vary on who won the debate but even if we charitably assume it was a draw, that debate was on foreign policy, McCain's supposed strong suit and Obama went toe-to-toe with him on his chosen ground. If Obama can go the distance with McCain on McCain's supposed best subject, he should be able to crush McCain in the other debates.
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