FL-13: Buchanan Well Under 50% in New Poll

[ccharles000]

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=A07563D267303A17DFF9CDB8BAE0A657?diaryId=3208

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):

Christine Jennings (D): 31
Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 43
Other: 6
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±5%)
43% is a weak place to be for any incumbent, and just take a look an Vern's fave/unfave rating: 37-42. Not good. On the other hand, Christine Jenning's favorables aren't exactly hot either: 32-38. You never like to see a challenger with a net negative favorable rating.

A recent Feldman Group poll showed Jennings trailing by four points, with Buchanan at the 44% mark. Popping open the hood, R2K shows that McCain is leading Obama by 51-38 in the district. Considering that Bush beat Kerry by 12% here in 2004, we're not seeing any evidence of a blue shift in this district based on this poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

[graywarrior]

1. Could it be that Jennings used to be a republican?

This does not sound good for dems in Sarasota County. Vern is such an asswipe, but he has millions. Jennings fought for election reform, so I don't know why she is trailing. Jesus, I'm glad I'm out of there.

[FLAprogressive]

4. She's trailing because her only ads are negative ones....

....she is turning people OFF. Time for the Sarasota County Dems to find a COMPETENT candidate.

[graywarrior]

6. When I was there, the DEC was run by ego freaks and incompetents.

I heard there was a new president and that she was more organized, but man, what a difficult group to deal with.

Buchanon owns the airport, for crissakes. He owns a huge building downtown on Main St. He OWNS Sarasota. And he's owed lots of favors.

[FLAprogressive]

7. Buchanan owns Sarasota Ford and Venice Dodge/Nissan too....

...he's connected. So is Jennings. Really, between these two you have a corporate Republican and corporate Dem. Now I'd rather take the corporate Dem but neither are really appealing.

[graywarrior]

11. Got that right.

Too bad Jan Schneider was such a flake.

[FLAprogressive]

12. Schneider is one of the reasons why Jennings probably won't win....

She's running as an independent and will likely take 6-10% of the Dem vote away from Jennings.

[graywarrior]

13. I hadn't heard that.

Wow. Sarasota is just as nutty as ever.

[FLAprogressive]

14. In polls where she's included she's doing relatively good...

Hopefully we'll field a better candidate in 2010.

[graywarrior]

15. I saw her debate Katherine Harris in 2004. No contest.

Harris had to read her answers. Sound familiar?

[FLAprogressive]

16. lol...I'm ashamed to say that that woman was my congress critter :( nt

[graywarrior]

17. I used to see her plastic boobs at Whole Foods

What a walking contradiction.

[FLAprogressive]

18. I thought only "godless liberals" shopped at Whole Foods? :P nt

[graywarrior]

19. Hell no. The parking garage used to be filled with Bush/Cheney cars

They're the only ones who cannot afford to shop there.

[FLAprogressive]

20. That's true....pukes in their nice downtown condos gotta eat too ;)

And all the rich pukes on Siesta Key :P

Us poor folk have to stick to Publix. :)

[graywarrior]

21. Publix ain't much cheaper.

Winn Dixie is a total rip off. Sweetbay is another rip off. I used to shop at the Granary and Richards. Richards has the best honey salted almonds I ever tried. I miss them.

[FLAprogressive]

22. That's true....Publix's generic stuff is pretty good however.

Cheap and comparable to the big brands.

But back to Vern and the Sarasota GOP Political Machine. lol.

[graywarrior]

26. Ever hear Vern talk?

He cannot string two sentences together. His money talks for him.

[FLAprogressive]

27. In his one ad he sounds like he's out of breath...

the one where he's at the gas pumps

[graywarrior]

28. He's getting off on the money he's making with deals he has going on with oil companies.

He must have deals with them. Right?

[FLAprogressive]

29. He's taken $17,000 in oil money. nt

[graywarrior]

30. I knew it!

What is wrong with Sarasota? I really thought things were changing there. Guess I was wrong.

[Eric J in MN]

2. I donated to Christine Jennings.

It's a way to help get-out-the-vote in Florida.

http://www.actblue.com/page/jennings2008

[FLAprogressive]

3. Trust me, Vern is gonna win this one.

He's a used car crook, but let's face it.

This area is FAR too Republican and the fact that Pukechanan is an incumbent Republican helps him, along with the fact that Jennings is coming across as a vindictive "sore loser" and seems to even be turning off Dems. Also, Jan Schneider will take away enough of the Dem vote to give our favorite used car salesman another victory.

She needs to quit and a better candidate for 2010 needs to be recruited.

[flvegan]

5. And Buchanan is running a crazy number of ads.

I've seen more ads for him than for Burger King.

[FLAprogressive]

8. Yeah...he's trying to make himself the "change" candidate....

And he's trying to rebut Jennings' ads highlighting his lawsuits. Jennings doesn't have a single ad out there that talks about what SHE's going to do and that's hurting her. They're all attacking Pukechanan which is backfiring on her.....

[Cristobolocolombus]

9. Is he related to Pat Buchanan?

By any chance?

[FLAprogressive]

10. No, they're both blowhards however. nt

[BreweryYardRat]

23. My old man knows both of them from business and dislikes both of them.

To quote: "Buchanan's corrupt and Jennings is incompetent."

Sarasota really does need better Dem candidates. Just glad I moved to Tampa.

[FLAprogressive]

24. Don't blame him....

Your rep is Kathy Castor right? She seems pretty good.

[BreweryYardRat]

25. Yeah.

I think I'm better off signing on with the Obama campaign, though.