GOP's Senate Stock Falls
The idea that Republicans could lose nine Senate seats is no longer implausible.
by Charlie Cook
Saturday, Sept. 27, 2008
Early last year, some notable Senate leaders on both sides of the aisle speculated that the Democrats just might gain enough seats in 2008 to hit 60 votes, a filibuster-proof majority on strict party-line votes. At the time, the prospect seemed pretty outlandish.
When I heard it from Democrats, it seemed like overly optimistic happy talk -- the kind frequently ventured after a landslide win such as the one they enjoyed in 2006. Hearing the idea from Republicans was a bit more interesting, but I considered it a fundraising tool, the kind of "apocalypse is coming" hyperbole that first appeared in over-caffeinated direct mail -- and, more recently, e-mail--appeals for money. Since neither the Federal Trade Commission nor the mail-fraud folks at the U.S. Postal Service pay any attention to political fundraising, Republicans were pretty safe crying, "The sky is falling!"
These days, Democrats still seem very unlikely to make the nine-seat gain necessary to reach 60, no matter whether Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut is wearing a blue, red, or independent purple jersey next season. But talk of hitting that threshold doesn't sound nearly as insane today as it did 20 months ago. Although Republicans enjoyed a brief burst of euphoria immediately after John McCain selected Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, effectively giving the 72-year-old nominee the political equivalent of a Vitamin B12 shot, the rush has subsided. And most folks who watch Senate races closely say that the outlook for Republicans has deteriorated in recent weeks.
Today, holding its losses down to four seats would be manna from heaven for the GOP. Party leaders would take a five- or six-seat loss in stride, given the circumstances. A seven-seat loss would be bad but not shockingly horrible. Even an eight-seat loss is possible if Democrats draw an inside straight, as they did in 2006.
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http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080927_7390.php
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