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So here’s the breakdown as I see it. Each question is judged on a 10 point scale.
Question 1: Financial Crisis
Obama was successful in equating the failed policies of George W. Bush with John McCain. He was also able to establish key conditions for the bailout, including oversight, taxpayers benefiting from profits, CEO salaries and protection for homeowners. Obama was able to point out the difference between the need for a short-term fix and a long-term solution. He slammed trickle-down economics and talked about the need for restoring regulations on the financial services industry. He also took the opportunity to note McCain’s lack of command on the economy, noting McCain’s statements that the fundamentals of the economy are sound.
McCain predictably went into a narrative in which he tried to take credit for the progress that has been made to date. He blamed greed and corruption and also tried to blame lax oversight, failing to note that the regulations have been largely removed.
Although Obama did not start off exceptionally well on this question, McCain was in the tank. He offered nothing substantive. Obama - 8, McCain 4.
Question 2: Fundamental Differences
McCain noted the need for dramatic spending cuts. McCain then attacked Obama for seeking $932 million in earmarks, an attack that Obama either ignored or failed to address. McCain seemingly only attacked pork-barrel spending, rather than looking at broader issues. McCain did offer a doubling of the child tax credit, something likely to play well with the electorate. But McCain hurt himself by repeating the lie that Obama was seeking to raise the taxes of those earning as little as $42,000.
As noted, Obama failed to address the earmark attack, other than to note that he had stopped seeking earmarks. He pointed out that McCain’s plan offered massive tax breaks to corporations that were shipping American jobs overseas. He connected with middle class voters by talking about growing the economy from the bottom up, paying attention to daily needs. Obama again successfully linked McCain with Bush’s failed policies. Obama noted that 95% of taxpayers would receive a tax break under his proposals. He also pointed out a huge flaw in McCain’s health care tax credit proposal, noting that McCain would be the first president to tax health benefits.
On the whole, McCain performed better than he did on the first question, but was simply not supported by the facts. Obama was strong throughout the substance of this answer, hurt only by the earmarks issue. Obama - 8, McCain 6.
Question 3: What will you give up because of the bailout?
This was an inherently unfair question. While the point is well taken that changes will need to be made, the fact of the matter is that no one knows how bad a mess the failed policies of the Bush administration is leaving behind. This was Jim Lehrer’s only real error of the evening.
Neither candidate truly answered the question, but made related points. Obama talked about the priorities that still must be addressed even in a difficult economic environment. He noted the errors in providing subsidies to private insurers and noted the problems with the prescription drug bill. Obama also again connected with the middle class, noting that medical deductibles had gone up 30%. He also keenly pointed out the need to improve America’s infrastructure - electrical, roads, bridges, and technological. He cited his ability to work across the aisle and brought up McCain’s 90% rate of agreement with the Bush administration. He pointed out that it is hard to accept that someone who agreed with the Bush administration can be an advocate for real change. He also had the opportunity to raise the issue of spending $10 billion a month in Iraq and the need to bring the war to a close.
McCain talked about massive spending cuts and called for reform in military contracts, but when way overboard on calling for a spending freeze on everything but military spending and veteran’s benefits. McCain touted his disagreements with the administration and other Senators. He objected to turning over health care to the government, noting that choices should be left to families, but he failed to note that the current system leaves the real choice up to the insurance companies.
This was one of McCain’s weaker answers when comparing content with Obama. But again, neither truly addressed the specific question in detail. Obama 7, McCain 5.
Question 4: What are the lessons of Iraq?
Predictably, McCain spent some of his time talking about the need to win in Iraq, but made numerous errors of real significance. He argued that we will be leaving behind a stable, democratic Iraq that will be largely free of Iranian influence. In fact, Iran has great influence not just in Iraq, but with its government. McCain also reiterated the fallacy that Iraq is the central battleground in the war on terror. McCain also talked about the failed early strategy and how important the change in strategy was. He of course called the surge a success, which it was on a military level. McCain reiterated the misrepresentation that Obama voted to cut off funding to the troops in Iraq. McCain’s strong point was noting that the next president had to deal with the future of Iraq, not its past.
In addressing this question, Obama was assertive and laid out McCain for his failures. He first noted the question of judgment; should we have gone in? This was a question that McCain could not dare to address. Obama noted that he opposed the war when that was an unpopular thing to do. He correctly cited that “we took our eye off the ball” in Afghanistan due to our fixation on Iraq. He stated that it was critical that we use our military wisely.
Then came the soundbites of the night. Obama told McCain he sounded like the war started in 2007 rather than in 2003. Obama slammed McCain for being wrong on Iraq being a quick and easy war, wrong about WMDs, wrong about being greeted as liberators, and wrong about there being no history of violence between Sunni and Shi’ia Muslims. Obama corrected the “supporting the troops” line by noting a funding bill that McCain had voted against. Obama also raised the fact that McCain had declared Afghanistan essentially won, and how the situation there has worsened.
This is a question that McCain, if foreign policy were truly his strength, should have been able to handle. But he didn’t. Obama not only showed that he understood policy, but reminded the American people that McCain had been wrong, wrong, and wrong. McCain had no credible response. His tone sounded more confident than his words betrayed. Obama 9, McCain 6.
Question 5: Afghanistan
Obama called for the immediate deployment of 2 to 3 more brigades, noting that the situation could not be separated from Iraq because most of our troops are in Iraq. He also noted the fallacy of the Iraq invasion, recalling that there were no al Qaeda in Iraq prior to the invasion. He also called for dealing with Pakistan, noting how McCain and Bush had failed to address a nation that was granting safe haven to terrorists. After McCain misrepresented Obama’s statement on military strikes into Pakistan, Obama struck back, noting he didn’t call for an attack on Pakistan, but would go after al Qaeda or bin Laden if they could be found.
Another soundbite came when Obama called out McCain on his temperament, noting that McCain had threatened North Korea and famously sang that we should bomb Iran. He also noted that we coddled a Pakistani government while angering its people. After McCain’s story about wearing a military bracelet, Obama countered it with his own, and was able to bring the issue back to that of judgment. He also pointed out McCain’s gaffe that we could “muddle” through Afghanistan.
McCain noted that we were wrong to turn our back on Afghanistan after the Russians left; a fair point. He defended supported Pakistan, and called for the Iraqi surge strategy to be applied to Afghanistan. However, he mistakenly asserted that Pakistan was a “failed state” when Musharref took control of the nation; this is simply not true. Pakistan had a democratically elected government that was thrown out in the coup. McCain did successfully cited his history of making good votes on Lebanon, the first Gulf War, Bosnia, and Kosovo. McCain continually talked about the places he had been to, and kept going after a date certain departure from Iraq, even though the Bush administration is agreeing to it and the Iraqis are demanding it.
They were both strong on this question, in different ways. Obama 9, McCain 9.
Question 6: Iran
McCain noted the danger of Iran becoming a nuclear state and stated we would not allow a second Holocaust. But then McCain went and talked about developing some abstract “League of Democracies” in the region… first, there are few working democracies in the Middle East, and Iraq is not one of them. Second, a “League of Democracies”? How much does that sound like League of Nations? Not a good strategy.
McCain went on to start blasting Obama on agreeing to meet with adversaries without pre-conditions, but was seemingly clueless about what that actually meant. He meandered meaninglessly on this point until he was able to bring up Reagan’s message of “trust, but verify.”
Obama noted correctly that Iran has been strengthened and emboldened by the Iraq invasion. He pointed out Iran’s support of Hezbollah and Hamas, and concerns over Iranian nuclear development. He pointed out the the Bush policy of non-engagement has not worked for the past eight years and that we are in need of tough, direct diplomacy. Obama pointed out the difference between pre-conditions and preparation, which seemed completely lost on McCain. Obama also focused on the need to work with allies to form effective alliances, and chided McCain for not remembering that Spain was a NATO ally.
Once again, this was a question where McCain should have the advantage, but did not. Obama 8, McCain 6.
Question 7: Russia
Obama noted that Russia is becoming a threat to peace and stability in the region, specifically calling them out on Georgia. He advocated adding Georgia and the Ukraine to NATO. He said we can not fall back into a cold war mentality and can’t judge Russia by looking into Putin’s soul. He pointed out working with Richard Lugar on the troublesome issue of proliferation, especially “loose nukes.” Obama called for foresight in foreign policy; being able to anticipate problems. Obama also noted that Russia has been emboldened through its wealth acquired by petro-dollars, and said energy independence would increase our security. he then used that opportunity to point out that McCain has voted against alternative energy sources on 23 different occasions.
McCain criticized Obama for not being strong enough when Russia invaded Georgia, and called Russia a KGB-run state. He said we couldn’t go back to a cold war as well, and also supported Georgia and the Ukraine’s admission into NATO. He noted the Russians are currently violating the ceasefire agreement in Georgia.
Time was limited for this question, and the answers both hit and missed the mark. Obama 7, McCain 6.
Question 8: Are we safer after 9/11? What is the likelihood of another attack on American soil?
McCain said we are safer, but not safe. He took credit for developing the 9/11 Commission and enacting many of its recommendations. He noted the need to improve our intelligence capabilities. He also said it was important that we not torture in the future, almost a tacit admission to the torture that has taken place under this administration. McCain reiterated the fallacy that Iraq is the central issue of our time, and accused Obama of not understanding the world by insisting on a date definite pullout. He ended by saying he didn’t need on the job training.
Obama said we are safer in some ways and not in others. He keenly noted our need to improve port security and mass transit security. He also spoke intelligently about nuclear nonproliferation and the need to be concerned with suitcase nukes. He again rejected that Iraq is the central point of the war on terror, noting al Qaeda is active in 60 nations and the areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Obama noted that Bush and McCain have been solely focused on Iraq while bin Laden is still loose and the al Qaeda threat grows, and while China is increasingly active around the globe. Obama talked about the need to restore American standing around the world.
Once again, Obama had the more coherent answers. Obama 9, McCain 7.
Overall Score: Obama 65, McCain 49
Final Analysis: It wasn’t a knockout, but it was a pretty clear Obama victory on points. Obama needed to show he could hold his own against McCain, and more than accomplished this task. He demonstrated deep understanding of the issues, making McCain’s claims that Obama didn’t “get it” fall flat. Obama seemed to determined to throw the last punch, but not the first. As a result, he seemed to let McCain dictate the subject matter, but this did not prevent him from being a very effective counter-puncher. He also seemed to miss an opportunity to connect more strongly than he did with the middle class. Obama probably could have been even stronger in connecting John McCain to George W. Bush, but was effective overall in doing so. Obama might be criticized for agreeing too often with McCain tonight, but this is a negotiation technique that actually translated well to make Obama look both reasonable and presidential; it was a good thing to employ, but he did leave a lot of points on the table tonight.
McCain came across as angry, and refused to even look at Obama throughout the debate, despite the fact that direct conversation was the format of the debate. On the plus side for McCain, he came across much more strongly than one might expect given the rough two weeks that his campaign has experienced. But ultimately his attacks were baseless. His appeals to emotion were effective on the surface, but well countered by Obama.
If people make up their minds after the first debate, and we know that many will, it seems likely that Obama faired very well tonight. He needed to pass the Commander in Chief test, and did. McCain needed to get rid of the memories of the past week, and did so very effectively. McCain lost the debate to Obama, but may have succeeded in restoring some confidence in his own campaign.
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