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Salonept. 23, 2008 | PHOENIX -- This should be a tough year to be a Democrat in Arizona. After all, the state's senior Republican, John McCain, is on the top of the national ticket. For the first time in three presidential elections, Arizona won't be a battleground -- you'd think the GOP would be nicely set up to win races up and down the ballot.
But try telling that to the nearly 1,000 people who turned out for a rally a few weeks ago to open Barack Obama's state headquarters downtown. (Or, for that matter, the 400 people who showed up a day early because a blog post got the date wrong.) Despite McCain, Democrats in Arizona are very much looking forward to the elections. Come November, McCain will almost certainly win his home state -- but he may find he doesn't bring a lot of Republicans to victory along with him. Instead, Democrats look likely to pick up a House seat, hold on to two others they won in 2006, and at least challenge -- if not overturn -- Republican control of the state Legislature.
Like other purple Southwestern states, Arizona has seen an influx of newcomers and rapid growth in the number of Latino voters, two trends that could help tilt it farther away from its conservative past. Which is why Don Bivens, the chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, is feeling pretty good these days. "We're still going full steam ahead," he said last week. His only regret? "I wish I had some of the resources they're giving to New Mexico" for the presidential race. The presidential campaign is basically passing Arizona by, but even so, McCain was only up by 10 points in recent public polls; private polls for campaigns have Obama even closer in some congressional districts around the state. (Bivens says Obama's strategists in Chicago tell him they'll consider buying ads and spending some money in Arizona if it's still close after the debates.)
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http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/09/23/arizona_blue/