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Isn't *this* what this financial disaster is really all about?

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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 08:52 PM
Original message
Isn't *this* what this financial disaster is really all about?
Clearly this is a huge mess. But correct me if I'm wrong: the real genesis of this problem (aside from the obvious regulation issues) is that the housing market became artificially inflated (due to the easy access to loans) so that many people started living on the new-found equity in their homes -- so much so that people lost sight of the fact that wages (not income generated by refinancing loans) have long been out-of-synch with housing costs -- and until either one of the two factors changes (wages increase or housing prices drop) then the problem still persists. Regardless of how many billions or trillions go towards some mystical "bail out".

Seems to me this bail out will just keep the housing market afloat a bit longer. But the underlying fact that WAGES (not interest from investments) are insufficient for most people to purchase a home at today's market prices.

Is that not really the actual bottom line of this whole problem?
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Betsy Ross Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 08:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. Pretty much.
And we cover the mortgage holders' losses.
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ananda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
2. hmm
It depends on location.

The commuting experience gets old fast. So people wanting to live close to work drive prices up in those areas, where real estate is prime.

There are places where housing is affordable, but the location isn't so great for work.

Add to that the fact that so many people want to own homes, no matter what.

I learned over the years that renting is not a bad deal. I never wanted to put that much cash into a house because of all the overhead and headaches.

What worries me is that my prudence is being punished by the greedy profligacy of those who bought and sold homes. It also pisses me off bigtime.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. that's the situation I'm in, too....
I never drank the home-ownership koolaid and I live within my real means. We'll go down too, despite being prudent.
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tnlefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
22. Well, we drank the home ownership koolaid years ago.
We worked like crazy on the first home that we owned/built and we sold it because we had to for work reasons. We rolled that money into the house we're in now (1989). We did a LOT of the work ourselves and within 15 yrs. it was paid for. We scrimped and saved to add what we wanted to (pool), and saved for our kids to go to college.

I'm not so happy either. We worked hard, played by the rules, don't have an extravagant lifestyle, and it's gonna get us, too.
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kirby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
3. You dont think all those who benefit from the house bubble want to admit
the game is over?

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Redbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
4. It'sa HUGE factor
The ridiculous derivatives are, to my understanding what has led to the current crisis BUT once that is resolved, the underlying problem you present will still be there.
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
5. The real problem was that a lack of proper regulation
allowed the loaners to go crazy and loan people money regardless of their ability to repay and then turn around and RESELL those loans to bundled buyers on Wall Street without properly disclosing the attached risk. It's pump and dump and Tony Soprano would be proud. These are "lemon loans".

Doug D.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:07 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Yes, but behind that was the motivation to inflate housing prices
That was the whole intent behind making loans so easily available -- the fact that they managed to rig together another underhanded trick to pass the debt on, is not so much the real problem, imho. It's that the market is artifically inflated, and now so many people have bought in at or near the top (or refinanced their way there) that they have a stake in keeping the housing prices maintained at those (artificial) levels.

I can't see the problem resolving as long as that fundamental factor remains unchanged.
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. It's not that the buyers worked AFTER their purchase to cause the prices to go up further..
The SELLERS did that since they needed to have ever better quarterly profits - it's just like the dot com bubble, quarterly profits and short term capital gains cause the problem. It is too easy to buy and then turn around and sell a stock. The Republicans speak of the sanctity of marriage well they need to be "married" to their stocks and stuck with them for at least a year at a time. That way the quarterly profit will be less of a motivator to CEO's - we should tax the crap out of capital gains, especially short term capital gains and make dividends tax free to encourage people to hold onto their stocks long term and this would take some of the craziness out of the market.

Doug D.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. True, but without easy loans, there wouldn't have been buyers n/t
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Of course but the blame assigns to the sellers in my mind..
they did this over and over.. the buyers bought once and were enticed.

Doug D.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. Sellers cannot sell if there aren't buyers
and without easy money, there would not have been buyers
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. Yeah but they manufactured the buyers out of thin air
from unqualified people.

and the houses were largely built by developers, not resales of old home so this was an organized industry and I blame the organization.

Doug D.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Agreed. Buyers were manufactured out of thin air. EXACTLY!
That's what I'm saying. And these manufactured buyers caused the housing market to rise substantially, and it has not fallen back to pre-mfg'd-buyer levels, and until it does, it's still a problem. Dealing with the debt caused by the bad loans won't address the underlying problem.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. exactly-- home prices TRIPLED in my neighborhood during...
...2000-2004 or 2005. Nothing else changed to raise their value-- it was all artificially inflated. It was-- and is-- obscene.
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Aqaba Donating Member (781 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
7. Yes but theres much more to it...
In a nutshell, the investment banks (Goldman Sachs, Lehman etc) took these original bad loans and made mountains of illusionary money with them. They packaged them, insured them, hedged them over and over and sold them all over the planet. Their business model (the marked to model value) value was waay overstated in comparison to their real value (marked to market). This is why AIG failed, they had tons of these crap investment packages on their books. The market traders knew these assets were crap, so they started shorting the shit out of those banks. Thats why they started falling down one right after the other, because they all held much of the same crap. The jig was up, and if Paulson didn't have his hissy fit last week all those banks would be dead. Likely the death of our entire financial system as well. Total meltdown based on the criminalistic greed of the banksters, Alan Greenspan (for reducing the interest rates to prop up and fuel the whole scheme and the Bush administration.

The banksters that did all of this, paid themselves very highly while the Bush administration propped this up as proof of a strong economy.

It is nothing less than fraud on a scale this planet has never seen, and now Paulson wants you and me to bailout the Ponzi scheme which he presided over as Chairman of Goldman Sachs.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Agreed, that compounded the original problem
But I can't see how addressing the meta-issue is going to do anything to solve the underlying problem: wage levels are NOT sufficient for most people to afford a home.

Let's see, what would the federal minimum wage have to be in order for a worker to be able to afford a median priced home?

I can't see how it's any more complicated than that.
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Aqaba Donating Member (781 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Absolutely correct.
The basis for all of this is that housing prices skyrocketed past supportable income levels. The root problem right there. But that in itself isn't enough to wreck global meltdown in my opinion.

The fraud in creating trillions of dollars of false assets in deriviatives and other financial wizardry based on those bad loans is the threat.


Its all going to unwind and ultimately were looking at the dollar becoming worthless. This is really freaking huge.
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stopbush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #7
28. Bingo! Good analysis.
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Emillereid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
8. Yep. But what happened in the last week to bring on dire measures. Is there
Edited on Mon Sep-22-08 09:09 PM by Emillereid
something we don't know?
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Aqaba Donating Member (781 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. Not really...
...everyone who was paying attention knew that Paulson's beloved Goldman Sachs was going to go down, as well as Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Wachovia, Washington Mutual. The short sellers literally called "BULLSHIT THESE BANKS ARE INSOLVENT" and were right.

Heres another thing to consider. Hank Paulson *knew* about this, but every step of the way over the past two years he has been telling us its 'contained', 'its behind us' etc. Nothing of the sort is true. What is true is that he was trying to kick the can down the road past January of 2009 when he and the Bush Junta left office.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. That's all smoke and mirrors, imho
Everything else has been manufactured or manipulated in order to create wealth for a certain group (Bush's base).

This current "emergency" is simply Bush's "scorched earth" tactic before he leaves office, imho.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
9. bingo!-- and I suspect the "bailout" is just meant to keep the profit machine...
...cranking along a little longer, because once it collapses the Wall Street fun and games will be over.
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MadMaddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:11 PM
Response to Original message
11. Don't forget the flippers - these people also helped push
up artificial prices in neighborhoods that have never seen the kind of increases we saw.

I was trying to rent a home in the Seattle area and no one would take pet owners. Why because they wanted to see if the market would get better so they could sell the house they had invested tons of money in so they double their money. They gambled and they lost.
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #11
21. Without easy money (buyers) there wouldn't be flippers
People who could afford to flip had likely either gotten one of those easy loans or used equity from another property (equity earned due to rapid rise in price due to easy money flooding in).

So the real problem was flooding the market with money in the form of subprime loans -- simply and only to provide the air to inflate the bubble.

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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #21
29. This is also a cornerstone reason not to bail Wall Street out
It's not that anything will come of it, but more of the idea of throwing good money after bad. You don't give things to people who have shown a lack of understanding of what they are handling. No bail out till they get people in their that can handle their job and act responsibly x(
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magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:14 PM
Response to Original message
15. Yep, you nailed it
We're insolvent. WS will dance on the ashes of this country using our money.
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Waiting For Everyman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
24. If homeownership is kool aid, then so are pensions rising. Yes,
it's about artificially low wages... also the Repub philosophy. It's an attempt to "colonialize" us right here, just as they do around the world.
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stopbush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
27. Easy credit led to a shortage of inventory, which inflated prices of homes.
Edited on Mon Sep-22-08 10:40 PM by stopbush
A building boom kicked in, but the biggest problem was that existing and new homes became horribly overpriced. Consumers who wanted to buy a home couldn't do it the traditional way (ie: with a 20% down payment), so the robber barons introduced products and strategies that got around the problem. The hook to the consumer was the ever-inflating price of homes and what people believed was a guarantee that home prices could only go up. Most believed that they could treat their homes like an interest-bearing bank account, and that if they stayed in the home 2-3 years, they could sell and make out on the deal. The sale of that first home would give them the 20% in cash they needed to get into a 30- or 15-year fixed on their next purchase.

Longtime home owners saw that the equity in their homes could be tapped not only to buy products but to cover shortfalls in their earnings.

But like any Ponzi scheme, someone is left holding the bag when the bubble deflates. That someone is anybody who believed that a scheme that worked pretty well for about a decade would go on forever. What we've learned now is that the scheme was unsustainable because the guys who thought up the scheme started believing it themselves. They, at least, were at the top of the pyramid and escaped unscathed. Those at the bottom - ie: anyone who bought a house in the last 4 years - are screwed.
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kurt_cagle Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:10 PM
Response to Original message
30. Stagnant Wages
The one thing that Republicans in the government have feared for at least the past twenty years is wage inflation. When wages go up, since wages constitute the lions share of expenses in a business, profits go down and hence dividends go down. One reason for the push to off-shoring is to drive down labor costs. Automation is a big component of that as well. The problem of course was that this was one of those rather bizarre systemic gotchas - while increased wages were considered bad at the individual business level, in the aggregate increased wages move more money into the economy, result in more goods purchased and increasing the bottom line of those same companies. However, when businesses are run to only focus on the bottom line this quarter, these larger scale benefits didn't show up in the bean counters figures.

The other problem with this approach is that as people have more spending power in their pocket, they also tend to save more. This is where greed came into play. If you run a credit card company, you don't want people to save. You want people to spend, in order to get larger amounts of interest onto your balance sheets. If you're an automotive finance company, you want people to buy more expensive cars so that you get more from the finance charges. If you're a bank, you don't want people to put your money into savings accounts where it's inaccessible - you want them to buy financial instruments, mortgages for expensive houses, longer term obligations that paid in both fees and interest, and that you could use for more speculative purposes. Especially if you can manage to get the government to lower the barriers between bank types and to relax regulatory requirements on mortgages and related loans, you make far more on these than you do with piddling savings accounts.

Local effects all working in tandem produce collective behaviors that are often counterproductive to those local effects. Most people have at best a sixth grade education in economics, and that almost invariably microeconomics (and this is being generous). Many people cannot balance a checkbook, cannot compute even simple interest on a loan or set up a budget. Moreover, most people will tend to overestimate their ability to earn money in the long term. The banking industry knows these facts as well as anyone (and more so than most) and so they typically preyed upon people's ignorance in order to set them up in loans that they couldn't afford, knowing full well that it didn't matter because they could always sell off the properties to a slice and dice securities fund.

About that overestimation on income - take into account that on top of everything else, inflation of the currency has produced a decline of 2%-8% (officially) or 8% to 14% unofficially, in the value of their earnings compared to the cost of goods and services. These percentages aren't additive - they're multiplicative. In the last ten years, total inflation has risen 102% * 102% * 103% * 103% * 104% * 104% * 105% * 105% * 106% * 108% = 152%, meaning that real value of wages has effectively dropped to 1/1.52 = 65% of its value - in just ten years. This means that if your wages have stayed relatively stagnant in nominal terms, they've lost 35% of their value in real terms ... and that's assuming you accept the government inflation figures as gospel. If you go with John Williams ShadowStats, which uses the inflation measure incorporating food and energy costs (which are usually excluded "due to volatility), the rise has been close to 241%, meaning that your income has lost nearly 60% of its value.

Of course, after all of this, lets say that you have been contributing to a 401K plan that has effectively earned nothing in the last decade - if you had an indexed fund to the DOW for instance, you're actually a little down over the course of the decade ... in nominal terms. In inflation adjusted terms, your nest egg has similarly lost nearly 60% of its value - and that's assuming you've been conservative.

So, yes, of course, lack of wage growth is a definite issue. Of course, one of the dangers of inflation is that it's subtle - even as you do gain wages over the course of your career, inflation is leeching it away - you get a 5% raise, and you increase your spending because you have the perception that you're getting wealthier. Instead, you're just keeping up with inflation or in many cases losing to inflation, and your increased spending occurs against a backdrop of less real money in the paycheck at the end of the month. Add into this the periodic explosive bubbles (health care spending, education, housing and so forth) which could not in general be predicted by the average person even if they had been budgeting, and you get the crisis we're in today.

This is part of the reason why this is going to be such a painful period, not just for those who were economically unsophisticated but even for the middle class wage-earner who thought he was. The hyper-wealthy (who generally have gained that wealth either by being paid through the government trough in the latest "wars" or who made money siphoning out what value people did have) will complain that its the people's fault, that people should have been more aware of the debt they were taking on, even though in point of fact the vast majority of people were simply trying to take advantage of the same things that most people expect - that if you work hard you can own your own home and build your own security. It was a convenient lie. I suspect that the class wars are going to start getting ugly soon as people realize just how much of a lie it was.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:12 PM
Response to Original message
31. No, the crisis comes from derivatives
and securitizing debt... mixing good with bad

(Damn, there i go using technical language)

The whole intent of this is to keep the trust between banks so we can keep money flowing (liquidity)

Stop blaming the victims ok
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. If by "victims" you mean the financial institutions that sought to prop
up the real estate market, then no, I will not stop blaming them as it is completely their fault.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. No, the people who took loans on fraudulent terms
as you did in your OP

And yes, I am betting there was fraud and malfeasance and those folks NEED to be prosecuted

Alas, you don't prosecute the arsonist in the middle of firefighting, but in the end you do
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. That was not my intent, not at all
If it seemed like so, then I miscommunicated - I have no issue with the people who took those loans. I blame those who WROTE those loans. Unless you think it's 6 of one half dozen of the other?
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. that is what I got from your OP
and this medium at times is a pain

:-)

No problem


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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #35
37. that is what I got from your OP
and this medium at times is a pain

:-)

No problem


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jazzjunkysue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-22-08 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
34. In addition, the bad mortgages are used as collateral for other loans that are now defunct.
So, several people are all holding the same paper on the same devalued property.
Add to it the fact that builders went crazy and flooded the market. And add to it the de-regulation of the trading, and then, CEO's hiding the lousy spreadsheets from investors.

And the bottom line is, no one knows what they own or how much it's worth. it's all a guessing game that I guess, just deflated.

And underneath it all is a lack of income because jobs are gone.

We no longer sell or make anything in this country and the trade deficit is killing the economy from the outside. We're killing the dollar form thi inside.
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