Eye on the Senate: Udall Widens Lead in New Mexico (and other races)

[babylonsister]

Eye on the Senate: Udall Widens Lead in New Mexico

September 22, 2008 5:00 PM


Today we update New Mexico ("Leans Democrat") in our round-up of polls on Senate races.

No Clear Favorite
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Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, has a modest lead over former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, leading him 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug .21 had Wicker ahead 47 percent to 42 percent advantage. Three percent preferred "other," 7 percent were undecided and the margin of error was 4.5 percent. If "leaners" were counted, Wicker's lead was a little bigger. Wicker's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 59 percent to 29 percent while Musgrove's were 49 percent to 44 percent. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."
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North Carolina: Recent polls present different pictures of this race with some having Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole ahead, one with Democratic challenger Kay Hagan leading Dole and another showing a statistical tie. A Public Policy Polling Survey conducted Sept. 17-19 shows Hagan leading 46 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent for Libertarian Chris Cole and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. On the issue of the economy, voters favor Hagan over Dole 57 percent to 30 percent. An Elon University poll conducted Sept. 15-18 has Hagan and Dole tied at 35 percent each. Forty-eight percent voiced dissatisfaction with Dole, a jump of 22 points since the last survey in April. A {Research 2000 poll} conducted Sept. 8-10 has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 6-8 had Dole ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent for Cole and 5 percent undecided. the margin of error is 3.9 percent. SurveyUSA's last poll had Dole ahead by 5 points. CQ Politics rates the race as "No Clear Favorite."

Leans Democratic

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Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has seen his August leads over Republican Ted Stevens drop in some polls, but he leads in the latest Research 200 survey conducted Sept. 15-17 by 50 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Begich's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 56 percent to 32 percent while Stevens is now viewed unfavorably by 56 percent and favorably by 40 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had Begich ahead by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Stevens' favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 45 percent compared to 61 percent to 34 percent for Begich. An Ivan Moore Research poll conducted for the Anchorage Press Aug. 30 - Sept. 1 had Begich ahead 48.9 percent to 45.6 percent margin with 3.1 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."
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Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall leads Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 39 percent to 31 percent with 22 percent undecided in a Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24. The margin of error is 4.6 percent. A Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post conducted Aug. 13-15 had Udall ahead by 10 points. However, the paper did not provide the actual figures for each beyond their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios which were 42 percent to 23 percent for Udall and 27 percent to 25 percent for Schaffer with 39 percent providing no view. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."
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Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, opened a 53 percent to 37 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 19. Four percent chose "other" and 6 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Landrieu's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 59 percent to 39 percent and Kennedy's are 52 percent to 42 percent. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."
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New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall is leading Rep. Steven Pearce 57 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent undecided in a {Public Policy Polling survey} conducted Sept. 17-19. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had Udall ahead 56 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Udall led across the board in all gender and age groups. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20 had Udall ahead 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Udall enjoyed a 59 percent favorable rating compared to 53 percent for Pearce. Pearce had considerably cut into Udall's lead which was 25 points in July. Udall's favorable rating slipped some, while Pearce's went up. Retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici had held this seat since 1973. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democratic."
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New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu by 51 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19. The margin of error is 4 percent. Shaheen's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 39 percent while Sununu's is 49 percent to 44 percent. Shaheen enjoys a 25 point lead among unaffiliated voters. An American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20 has Shaheen ahead of Sununu 52 percent to 42 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Shaheen leads among independents by nearly 2-to-1. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

more...

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/09/eye-on-the-senate-udall-widens.html

[codjh9]

1. Rock on! Udall is running in what was (asshole's) Domenici's seat, right?

I once sent him a letter about clear-cutting when I lived in NM and got the snottiest reply. Even most dickhead politicians respond with smarmy bullshit that still at least SOUNDS polite, but not him.

Looking forward to helping Obama in NM next month!

[Warpy]

2. He is! This accomplished two wonderful things

First and foremost it will give us two liberal Demcocratic Senators instead of one liberal (Bingaman) whose vote was canceled by one fossil (Domenici). The opening of the seat also took the hated Heather Wilson out of the House as she lost her Senate bid to Pearce, who is favored by the rapture addled inbreds in the southern two thirds of the state.

Wilson's seat is being contested by a law n order GOP guy who's gonna beat this country into shape and a guy who's running an ad with a runner with a flag on his chest pulling an oil baron with a cowboy hat in a wagon: punchline, "We've let these special interests hold this country back too long" as he cuts the rope, sending the runner on to win the race. It's a good graphic and I think it just might win him the seat.

In any case, most of us are delighted to see the old fossil Domenici gone, even if pleading senility did get him off the prosecutorial hook in Attorneygate.

I don't think NM is "leaning" Democratic. I think we're galloping.