Carter is the only president since 1948 to have the Dow Jones industrials fall

[Newsjock]

When the Current Occupant took office in 2001, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 10,578. As I write this, it's sitting at 10,828 (and falling). Has the market ever done so poorly? Has a president ever presided over an actual decline (not even adjusting for inflation) in the Dow industrials during their term in office? Since 1948, the answer is only once: Carter.

Change in Dow industrials during presidential term (not inflation-adjusted):

1948: Truman +65%
1952: Eisenhower +71%
1956: Eisenhower +23%
1960: Kennedy +42%
1964: LBJ +8%
1968: Nixon +8%
1972: Nixon/Ford -2%
1976: Carter -4%
1980: Reagan +26%
1984: Reagan +79%
1988: Bush I +52%
1992: Clinton +95%
1996: Clinton +67%

Nixon had one term of increase and another of decline, but the net result for Nixon's two terms is an increase.

My source for these numbers is http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04-09-04PresidentialElections.doc

[tjwash]

1. Nice list.

1972: Nixon -2%
1976: Carter -4%

Carter inherited Nixon's bright "lets take the US off of the gold standard and let the fed print as much money as they want" idea. The list is also conspicuously missing Gerald R Ford, although I have to admit...Ford's great idea of curbing inflation by having everyone wear those stupid fucking "WIN" pins really worked wonders.:eyes:

Funny thing is...you can really see the "pump and dump" ponzi schemes that the junk-bonders put us through in the 80's taking root right after Reagan started his little "let the corps and banks do whatever the hell they want" mass deregulation program.

[Newsjock]

3. Ack!

Ford was missing! Updated the list accordingly. I should look into this more and get the split on the numbers when Nixon left vs. when Ford left.

I'd also be interested in running the numbers back through at least Hoover. But real life interferes, and I don't have the time to do that right now.

[Wednesdays]

2. Wasn't the Carter decrease because of FUBAR/October Surprise?

I read somewhere that the whole financial mess of 1979/1980 was engineered just to make Carter look bad--Poppy talking to Iranian officials on the sly, Hunt Brothers cornering the silver market, and a whole bunch of other shenanigans behind the scenes.

Someone with more info can fill in the details.

[wtmusic]

4. In all due fairness

you're cherry-picking your bottom in the midst of a sizeable correction.

Jan 20 2009 would be the date to measure from. Although historically there's no doubt the economy has done better with Democrats in office.

[Wednesdays]

5. Yes, plus the Dow is only one piece of the economic puzzle

Seems to me that the Dow fell for a while during FDR's second term, but aside from freeper types no one will argue that the average person did better economically during that period.

Also, while the Dow was rallying in 1976, the average Joe was still feeling the effects of the mid-70s recession (a small part of the reason Ford was defeated).

[Old and In the Way]

6. OPEC was created during the Carter years.

I forget the increase % that oil went up, but it was steep and immediate. At that time our economy was heavily industrialized (the term "outsourcing" hadn't been invented yet) and this increase impacted our economy heavily.