Do you understand the size of a 595mile wide hurricane?

[malaise]

The only good news so far is that it hasn't strengthened overnight. Let's see what today brings.

[babylonsister]

1. Gee, thanks for the reality check. Shit. Sectors A & B in Houston

are being incouraged to evacuate. I'm in sector C, and have been told to hunker down.

[malaise]

21. There are waves in Pensacola Florida between 15 - 20 ft

Highway 98 is closed. The problem with Ike is those big waves. There were waves five apartment storey's high lashing the East Coast of Cuba.

DUers on the gulf coast please take care. :grouphug:

[mike_c]

2. that's a beast....

Ya'll stay safe in and around the Gulf!

[spinbaby]

3. Jeff Masters says it looks like Wilma

Big storm, small eye.

[tannybogus]

4. Yes, I remember Camille and it was a Cat5. nt

[dysfunctional press]

5. the outer bands are still affecting jamaica and the bahamas.

wow.

[ensho]

17. and Key West too. the wind calmed down last night but started up

again today. not bad, but breezy.

[seabeyond]

6. sheeeit, my brother down there in houston with niece in rv park.

he is one of those macho manly man males not afraid of nuthin..... in a five wheeler thing. if i were to call and tell him to send daughter up here, he would just pump chest and say how not a big deal and they can ride it out and i am not afraid

[tannybogus]

8. He's in an RV?

That thing may end up as a plane without wings and landing gear. It's bad enough to be in a house.

Call him about the kid anyway. Better to be safe than sorry. If he wants to take a chance on flying,

then he's a stupid adult. The kid should not have to go along for the ride.

[Avalux]

10. You need to talk to him.

That storm is going to do horrible things to Houston if it hits close - it's a matter of life and death if they're in an RV. He needs to think about his daughter and her safety if not his own. Good luck!

[babylonsister]

11. The powers-that-be specifically mentioned RVs need to be

evacuated, if you want some ammo when/if you call. Hard to pump up/out your chest if you're dead.

[Buns_of_Fire]

19. Tell him this is not a fight he can win.

The beauty of an RV is that you can git when the gittin's good.

I rode out the outer bands of a hurricane once in a mobile home (the inner bands of the hurricane just missed us). Scariest thing I'd ever done (and it ranked right up there in the top five of stupidest, too!). And mobile homes are lashed down to the ground good and tight -- RVs aren't.

I've been told that Arizona and New Mexico are pretty this time of year. This sounds like an excellent time to truck on over there and check 'em out...

[seabeyond]

20. update. just talked to niece. not a big deal. just a little 2. school out cause people hysterical

needlessly. and htey are not concerned. further father hasnt talked to her about what they will do or where they will go if there is a problem.

not a big deal. just a bunch of fraidy cats

[Virginia Dare]

26. At the very least, this thing could spawn some good size tornados..

I'd be getting out of Dodge myself.

[OBrien]

7. I'm in Houston

our zip code does not evacuate, so hubby and I will hunker down. I have to say I'm pretty worried about this one. So is my cat. She's rarely wrong.

[demodonkey]

16. Your cat is worried? Animals can often sense weather and...

...other events such as earthquakes far in advance.

What's she doing to indicate worry? (serious question)

[dkf]

9. Would that help make it weaker?

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

12. It looks like half the size of the entire Gulf. Yikes!

[DS1]

13. Yes, there's a thread on Ike every 10 minutes telling me how big it is

[madrchsod]

14. dam.. that`s going to dump a lot of rain in the middle of the country

looks like a lot more rain all the way up to southern wisconsin...

[Strelnikov_]

15. As Uncle Joe Stalin said "Quantity has a quality all its own" n/t

[ensho]

18. it will play havoc with all of the oil rigs and stuff in the Gulf and

on land.

25 ft. waves already out in the Gulf making heavy surf all the way around the Gulf. from an early a.m. report.

[RL3AO]

22. Its now bigger than Katrina

Jeff Masters: "Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively."


Right now it has the pressure of a category 4 hurricane, but it only has the winds of a strong cat 1/weak cat 2. The reason is the storm has something called a double maxima. Basically, instead of the winds all flowing towards the center, with Ike, the winds are being shared between two eyewalls. One is about 10 miles wide and the other about 100 miles wide. What this is doing is creating a ridiculously large storm, but its not allowing the winds to increase. If the inner core weakens where the outer core can contract and become the new eyewall, then the storm will respond by increasing its winds very quickly. On a larger scale, the size of the storm would contract as well.

[malaise]

23. Thankfully not stronger

I'm beginning to wonder if the massive waves haven't helped to really stir up the water and cool down the gulf. That may be a good thing as Ike needs warm water to grow.

sp.

[RL3AO]

24. Looking at recon data, it appears the eyewall replacement cycle is starting to end.

My guess is the outer eyewall will contract for the next 12 to 24 hours and then intensification will begin.

[fed_up_mother]

25. great. just in time to make landfall

[malaise]

27. My guess is lots of damage and not just in Texas

Drill, drill, drill or spill, spill, spill!!!



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/111755.shtml


Hurricane IKE Public Advisory
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...
710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.