http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0809/S00022.htm (also a
DU thread, where I took grief for even mentioning Paul)
"Paul started out by winning 10% of the popular vote in New Hampshire, three points behind McCain's 13%. He placed second in the following primaries (by state population):
Pennsylvania (16%), Indiana (8%), Oregon (15%), Nevada (14% caucus), New Mexico (14%), Nebraska (13%), Idaho (24%), Montana (22% - primary), Montana (25% caucus), South Dakota (17%). Snip
"There differences between the Paul movement and the current Republican Party are too profound to imagine any benefit to the Republicans from his supporters. McCain's staff may be worried about these energized Pauli's distracting from his ratification as the standard bearer for the policies of the imperial Republicans. There focus will quickly turn to the states listed above where Paul made impressive showings among Republicans. Snip
"The real impact on the 2008 presidential election is the threat to the Republican base. In 2000, the rural segment accounted for 23% of the total vote count. In 2004, that "red" segment dropped to 16%. Bush won there by a substantial percentage but his 2000 rural vote count was down by 2.4 million from 2004.
"Now the McCain camp sees a highly energized, ideologically intense segment of the party holding a "counter convention" in the other "Twin City," Minneapolis. They must be wondering what happens if Paul's block goes elsewhere and those disaffected rural voters stay home again.
Link:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0809/S00022.htm