The President will be elected based on the ELECTORAL COLLEGE, so look here:

[Lex]

Screen grab from today, from

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[baldguy]

1. k+r

[Amy6627]

2. Thank you I needed that!!! K&R n/t

[xanadu1979]

3. Not always current.

That map is all fine and good, but when you mouse-over the states you'll see that most of the polls are at least a week old. I won't put any stock into this until the data is updated with polls taken after the repub. convention. I predict a lot of those light-blue and white states will tip to McCain for a few weeks.

[Lex]

4. Of course it changes as the state polls are updated. McCain's bounce

will dissipate from the Convention.

It's a great site to see the overall look of the states, not just a Gallup poll of 1,000 individuals nationwide.

[xanadu1979]

6. Yes, the bounce will dissipate

but this map doesn't even register the bounce yet. I predict that by the end of the week the map will show McCain with a lead. If it lasts and how long it lasts is another story. But as of right now, this map is outdated.

[Lex]

7. The state polling comes in all at different times

so the updates are made as the data comes in.

I doubt Obama loses the Electoral College advantage just because McCain fired up the fundie nutbags.

[azmouse]

5. The 'sky is falling' crowd isn't gonna like that....

OTOH... I love it!

GObama!!

[TwilightZone]

8. It'll take some time for the state polls to catch up on post-convention numbers.

While this map is certainly positive news, it isn't really reflective of the present situation. It'll probably take another week or two to gauge how the state polls will react.

[Lex]

9. But it's better to see this compiled map data than 1000 random people

polled by Gallup, imho.

[TwilightZone]

15. Agreed.

National polls are meaningless. In the end, the presidential election is, of course, just 50 state elections compiled into one overall result.

[SoCalDem]

10. Only "needs" 270..all extra is gravy

[Road Scholar]

11. K&R Thanks for that Lex. It looks like there's still hope.

Of course where there's a glimmer hope, there's a republican right there too, trying to stamp it all out. Give this Sarah bump thingy a week or so to dissipate and I think you'll see the ball starting to roll our way for the finale. Your dad must be a helluva..... oh, never mind.:pals:

[intheflow]

12. Kicking for a DU reality check.

Rec'ing, too! :kick:

[Freddie Stubbs]

13. Many of these polls were conducted before the conventions

[ClayZ]

14. K and R Thank you!

[Bethesda Home]

16. This same site...

...had Dole ahead in 1996 and Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. That was on November 2nd of those years.

I would trust Yogi more... "It ain't over 'til it's over".

With two months to go there's little that polls can tell us.

I don't believe that McCain is ahead but the polls say he is. Go figure.

[TwilightZone]

18. They were right in '00 and '04.

Gore, by most accounts, won Florida and, therefore, should have won the election.

Ditto for Kerry and Ohio.

I don't think EV.com was around in '96, though I could be wrong.

[pocoloco]

17. Oh Hell Yeah!! It's all over but the counting!!!

[Bethesda Home]

19. If you don't like what the polls are saying you can make up your own here.

It's the LATimes.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory

If you need help you can get all polls at RealClearPolitics and they seem to be up to date.

[central scrutinizer]

20. Another polling site worth bookmarking

supposedly this guy nailed the 2004 vote exactly.

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/08/post-convention-national-polls/#more-854

Six weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.7 %. Later we’ll probably have more data from other organizations.

The six weekend polls span September 5-7 and are the most recent available from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Diageo/Hotline, USA Today/Gallup, CNN, and Zogby Interactive. They draw upon 10,766 respondents.

McCain leads Obama by a little over one 1 error bar (1.7%). The odds are about 8-1 in favor of him being ahead in this sample of respondents.

Based on the correction to pre-convention state polls I provided last week, applying the national margin as a correction to the Meta-Analysis gives a median EV estimate of McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 EV. The 95% confidence interval is McCain <265-341> EV, Obama <205-271> EV.

Omitting data from Zogby Interactive, a poll that is known to be of low data quality, we have a perfect tie, a Obama-McCain margin of 0.0 +/-2.1%. In this case the median EV estimate is so close to a tie (McCain 273 EV, Obama 265 EV) that the only statistic worth reporting is the 95% confidence interval: McCain <233-313> EV, Obama <225-305> EV.

[Lex]

21. Thanks.

Bookmarked. :thumbsup:

[Truth2Tell]

22. This map helps them decide

which states to steal.

[OneBlueSky]

25. exactly . . . 224 for the Republicans is WAY too close to breath easily . . .

that means they only have to pick up 46 electoral votes to win the election . . . if they rig the results in Virginia (13) and Ohio (20), which I fully expect, that gives them 257, or only 13 short of victory . . . a little magic by the tabulators in Colorado (9) and Nevada (5) would do the trick . . .

they have the means, they have the motivation, they have the opportunity . . . they did it in 2000, and they did it in 2004, with no consequences whatsoever . . . anyone honestly think that they won't do it again in 2008? . . .

[Lex]

26. Well ***VOTE ANYWAY***

despite the fact you think it's already stolen.

[OneBlueSky]

33. oh, I'll be voting . . . though living in New York makes a vote for Obama . . .

a bit redundant . . . he'll carry the state no matter what . . . it's places like Ohio and Florida and Colorado etc. that worry me . . .

[glinda]

32. Missouri

tonight on one of the shows they were pointing out Missouri having an elderly population and a lot of Evangelicals. I know my friend Dot is up from Missouri right now and two years ago she was almost in tears because her long time Church (and she is a God fearing good Baptist that helps the poor and single mothers, homeless, etc...) said she and some of her friends had to leave their Church. Apparently the Minister starting preaching extremely political sermons endorsing particular people, and getting on very angry rants about Dems. She began to fear parking her car in the parking lot with her Dem stickers on it because people were actually getting hostile to her and her husband, people they had known for years. Really sad. Apparently the move to make Evangelicals get angry and prepare for this election was at least started two years ago down there pretty seriously.

[yellowcanine]

23. I would feel better if Florida and Virginia would be blue. Hate to hang much on Ohio.

Ohio is too close, and it would be nice to have some cushion in case we lose a Michigan, for example. Still, it appears that it is McCain who has to "run the table" this time, so that is good.

[Aslanspal]

24. The poll today was a shakup ...lets use that

It was a bounce, for the Republicans the culture war base is es-tactic if not orgasmic over Sarah Palin, but the good news if we can finally beat these guys we can get to work and start protecting our democracy with progressive measures. Karl Rove has found a way to game the system a lot of our Democratic voters are not even available for polling they have dropped out of the middle class. It is about the ground game and following through when they make you stand in line for 8 hours to vote, it is about not just taking you to the polls it is about taking a car full, your neighbor, your sister who has never voted before.

Make no mistake the Dobson types mirror the Union get out the vote, they are the workhorse of the Republican party because of Church directories and networking of right wing religious types, but are they as strong as they were in the past, I don't think so but you work as if they are the 2000 and 2004 style group hoping they are the 2006 group.

I think we win because of the silent and unreachable who must be reached on election day and given a ride to the polls and check off all the requirements and have a plan a,b, and c in case of voter suppression.

yeah it is frustrating and roll your eyes at the return of the culture wars, Obama/Biden must turn that around they have the money they must use it wisely, yes even compromise to start peeling off
the middle. It really is about winning the White House this time and changing things for the future and saving our nation from right wing religion and the rapture ready crowd.

Get mad but use that to do something on the day of the ground war.

I am still hanging in there and ready to work and give I did in 2000 and 2004 and in my heart of hearts they stole that election and we all want to know the truth and the only way to get to that truth is this election by throwing them out of office and get that truth commission up and running.

[aikoaiko]

27. In concept, this is such a better tool than national polling data, but in practice

I'm bothered that they call states when polls are within the usual +-3% (or whatever the calculated error margin is).

Plus it would be better if the poll data were more current and used composite information.

[suston96]

28. Wanna have some fun? Check these every couple of days. Compare.....Average them....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.pollster.com/polls/

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.270towin.com/

[VOX]

34. Thanks for posting these! n/t

[jazzjunkysue]

29. 260 Obama-160 Gramps: That's the Strong/Weak leaners.

That's leaving out the ties and barelys. The barelys are pretty close: 41-59.

But, look at the north-east: all blue except indiana, which is wobbling.
This looks nothing like the 2000 or 2004 maps.

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

30. Hmmm

Interesting

[magellan]

31. knr!