CURRENT Hurricane Forecast: GUSTAV to hit just South-West of New Orleans as CAT 4!!!

[Up2Late]

In other word,

This is going to be a BAD ONE!

Do NOT take this storm for granted! It would not take much for this storm to shift a little east and make a direct hit in the absolutely worst (and most venerable parts of New Orleans)!

Btw, it's already forecast to hit in a VERY bad place for the people of the Central Louisiana Coast, this is not going to be fun for any of those unfortunate people either.

Current Storm Track:

Current 21 Hour Wind-field Forecast:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/200807N.html

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[itsrobert]

1. The guy on MSNBC said it's weakening

and probably hit as a 3 or 2.

[WilliamPitt]

2. I hope someone tells that to the levies.

:(

[Up2Late]

3. The "Guy on NBC" is an Idiot!

And has obviously not clue what he's talking about if he said it would hit the coast as a Cat 2.

The Gulf water Temperatures, due to the current that flows threw it and the differences in depth, varies a LOT, which causes the storm to vary in intensity as it moves across those variations. In other words, it's weaker now, but will regain intensity when it hit's the warmer waters closer to shore.

[thewiseguy]

Well the storm just weakened more. I guess the jury is still out on who the idiot is.

The storm is experiencing shear and that will not let up until landfall. I dont see any chance for a Cat 4 landfall.

It will most probably be a minimal Cat 3 or a strong Cat 2.

[HooptieWagon]

12. Agreed

Gus is trying to strengthen over the warm loop current, but upper level sheer is preventing it. Current wind is 105kn, but NHC is continuing to call it a CAT3. Later this evening Gus will pass over a cool eddy, which will further prevent significant strengthening. A strong 2 or weak 3 is what I'm seeing at landfall, although the predicted landfall location and the vast size of the storm still will cause plenty of problems for NO and western Mississippi. There probably will be some levee topping and failures in NO, and the Bay St Louis/Pass Christian/Gulfport stretch of Miss. coast is very vulnerable to storm surge.

[HooptieWagon]

14. Wrong!

The northern Gulf is COOLER water. The warmest area is the loop current that flows north between Cuba and Yucatan, loops around, and then flows east through the Florida Straits - it's the beginning of the Gulf Stream. Northern Gulf water is several degrees cooler - once storms have passed over the loop current and are being fed by cooler water they weaken.

[200overcast]

20. The waters near the coast are cooler. There are rivers going into the sea around there.

:eyes:

[magellan]

11. Irresponsible unless he qualified it

Gustav still has many hours over the warm waters of the gulf, and forecasting intensity is a very inexact science. Lives could easily be lost if residents in the cone decide to stay because they hear someone say the storm is weakening without adding the qualifier above.

[Barack_America]

17. Apparently the models still predict some strengthening...

So making landfall as a Cat 4, though unlikely, is still possible. (per the official NOAA advisory)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/311457.shtml?

[lebkuchen]

31. I remember when Katrina passed and weakened, and CNNI talked about

the beautiful blue skies.

[WillyT]

4. Remember...

Katrina hit slightly to the East of New Orleans, and that was bad enough.

If Gustav hits slightly to the West of NOLA, it could actually be a lot worse.

The magnitude of devastation is always in the north-west quadrant from the eye, and that looks like what's gonna happen this time. The most powerful winds, the strongest storm surge, the most rain...

:shrug:

[Up2Late]

6. Absolutely Right!

That's definitely the worry here, and if anyone reading this is in Plaquemines Parish,turn OFF the computer and get out Now!

[malaise]

5. I doubt if it will be a Cat 2 at landfall

Gustav is weakening as she approaches the mainland - mostly due to its speed at 17mph.
The real problem with Gustav is rain, but if it keeps moving at this speed, it won't dump the kind of rain that Fay poured on Florida.

[Up2Late]

8. Pardon my French, but you are serious, you are a...

...F*cking Idiot. :mad:

If you had any clue, you would know it will NOT continue to weaken as it moves toward the coast, because it will get stronger. They always do with these current conditions.

[WillyT]

10. Um... Malaise Lives In Jamaica...

So probably already got an introduction to Gustav.

Maybe hoping for a good outcome for us? Maybe not necessary to be so rude?

:shrug:

[malaise]

16. Got nearly 36 hours of rain

Thankfully we only had tropical storm winds. The original forecast was that Gustav would weaken before hitting the mainland because of shear. That is what is happening. If it slows down and turns WNW Texas better be ready.

[Up2Late]

19. Sometimes rude is necessary when someone is posts a statement that could get people killed...

...if they listen to them.

This may sound crazy to a proud American, which I'm sure everyone he is, but Jamaica is not the Gulf Coast of Louisiana. The people of Jamaica are in a MUCH better place to ride out a Cat.3-Cat.4 Hurricane for 2 simple reasons:

1) Jamaica has Higher ground that they can walk to within reasonable amount of time, the people on the Louisiana Coast do not! It's very flat there (along the Louisiana Coast)

And

2) Jamaica has Stronger Storm Shelters than they have along the Louisiana Coast! Why? Because they have to have them because they are on an Island, so they have to ride out the storms. Very few can afford to get off the island every time a storm hits there, so they build better storm shelters.

[malaise]

21. As soon as power returned I told Duers to get out of harm's way

That said, the storm is getting weaker and moving rather fast. What's more it is shifting WNW.
Hopefully NOLA will be spared this time.

[Up2Late]

23. How long does it take to get power back after a storm like this?

And where do most people go to ride it out?

I swear, here in Georgia, if we get just a strong breeze and a light rain (if it hasn't rained in a while) we lose power for 3 to 6 hours. I'm glad we don't have to deal with major storms.

A few years back, when a tornado hit near my parent's house, they had no power for at least a week.

[malaise]

26. People in the two worst hit parishes don't have their power

back yet but about 92% of customers have power. We lost power very late Thursday night and it returned late yesterday evening. Remember though Gustav hit us as a rain event - just a tropical storm. After hurricane Gilbert in 1988, it took weeks for power to return.

Schools and church halls are shelters here. The Office of Disaster Preparation and Emergency Management have worked this out to a science. Still there are no mandatory evacuations because lots of Jamaicans refuse to leave their homes.

[magellan]

15. The forecast is for it to slow down and turn more WNW

...as it bumps into the high pressure ridge building in from the NE. Where it does that, before or after landfall, is still in the air so to speak. Forecast I saw earlier today suggested Gustav may be dumping rain on the TX/LA/MS area through the end of the week.

[bullwinkle428]

7. If the eye hits just west of NOLA, it could be absolutely horrific

in terms of the damage it does! Remember, Katrina's eye hit maybe 50 miles east of NOLA, so they really didn't sustain a tremendous amount of damage from the direct blow of the storm itself.



It was the failure of all the levees that led to the horrible flooding that devastated the city. There will be no comparison if those direct winds from the south hit the city... :scared:

[BelgianMadCow]

25. Good point about what to look out for - not just the place of landfall, but the surge...

Which is why I used the surge overlay in my post below.

:hi:
bmc

[jab105]

9. The northern GOM is a lot cooler, also, there is enough wind shear there that

the hurricane is running out of time to strengthen - which is good...

Cuba took more of a chunk out of it than originally expected, and there is some colder water that just doesn't allow for strengthening...

Hopefully this will occur - I really dont see it strengthening right now, based on what I've read about the GOM and shearing factors...

That being said, the real test is the levees, three years after Katrina, they should - SHOULD - be secure for this storm, I hold out no false illusions that they actually will be!

[WillyT]

13. It's In The Warmest Waters Right Now However...

:shrug:

[malaise]

18. Unless this slows down significantly

Gustav will not be a Katrina. I don't even see an eye at this stage.

[Up2Late]

22. Here's a more accurate thermal satellite image from a few days ago from NASA's Aqua satellite

Sorry, the area is covered in clouds in today's image, but I doubt water temp have changed much from a few days ago, and this shows the water in one degree increments, not five.

Unfortunately, the website here at DU won't let me post this image, because it's too big, but you can see it if you copy this link, paste it into a new window and then add the letters jpg to the end of the link and hit go or enter, otherwise it just gives an "illegal code" error.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2008241/lst2.A2008241192500-2008241193000.2km. jpg

If you do this, you will see there is no cool water near the coast, in fact some is hotter just off shore, which is a bad thing as far as hurricane intensity goes. Their is a link next to that image that says "1km" so, if you want an even closer look, click it for a view that is twice as close.


AND, if the speed stays in the 15 to 17 mph range, that not a good thing either, as it adds to the wind speeds on the west side of the storm.

[BelgianMadCow]

24. What I wonder about is, what would a 12-18 foot storm surge do to NOLA?

I am unaware of the present state of the levees...anyone?

I find this map pretty scary - I did not know NOLA lies it the apparent epicenter of storm surges.
(click on max potential storm surge below the map to get that overlay)
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=26.4&lon=-87.3&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0

bmc

on edit: on that same page, in the Wunderblog:

"Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed."

[meow mix]

27. this storm has killed a lot of people... dont trust forecasts

its an evil one

[Up2Late]

28. Since it's getting close to land fall now, here's the current Wind Field forecast model...

...which will update it's self each time you reload this page (just like the graphics in the OP have been doing)

Current Wind Field forecast model:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/200807N_0H.html

[brettdale]

29. Is it cat 3 or four now?

Thoughts with everyone in the area.

[magellan]

30. Minimal Cat 3

The eye isn't as organized as it was earlier so, for the moment, not as intense as it could be but still dangerous. It could intensify a little before landfall as it slows.

Storm surge remains the main threat.

[brettdale]

32. well thats something

Lets hope it dies a natural death.