Hurricane Gustav situation far worse than Katrina in '05

[ddeclue]

People seem to think that everything is all in control for tomorrow night's hit on New Orleans by Gustav..

I tend to think otherwise..

If current track projections hold, Gustav will hit the NOLA metro area on the front right quadrant of the storm which has the highest winds, highest rains, highest storm surge and highest number of embedded tornadoes.

Katrina weakened considerably just before landfall and hit NOLA on the front LEFT quadrant which is a significantly weaker part of the storm. Katrina was effectively a Cat 1 storm in New Orleans not a Cat 3. The vast majority of damage was due to failed levies and flooding - POST STORM.

The real cause of the devastation there was government neglect and underfunding so that we could afford a war in Iraq and tax cuts for the richest 1% of Americans.

Gustav will likely be a Cat 3 to Cat 4 storm when it hits and if projections hold will hit much closer to NOLA than Katrina did.

Add to that the fact that the damage from Katrina is nowhere near repaired so the damage will likely be far far worse. Katrina softened New Orleans up so that Gustav is set to deliver the final coup-de-grace.

Let's add to this mix that there is also a good possibility of a second hurricane (Hanna) making landfall in the Continental U.S. hitting between South Florida and South Carolina sometime in the next week while everyone is still trying to pick up the pieces from Gustav.

The media is SO focused on the devastating hit that is about to happen to Louisiana that they aren't even seeing another clobbering on the way for Central Florida (which has already suffered 4 hurricanes: Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Fay) in four years.

All in all, Hanna will not likely have nearly the consequences that Gustav will have but it will be just one more place our totally over stretched National Guard and FEMA will need to deal with and will take away from Florida's ability to render aid to Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.

One can only hope that we don't get an earthquake in California, a volcanic eruption in Washington (state) or at Yellowstone, a pacific hurricane in Hawaii, a terrorist attack in NY and/or some other combination of calamities to add to the problems that are about to occur in New Orleans and probably in Florida too.

The only advantage that Ray Naglin, Bobby Jindal and George W. Bush have going for them this time is that Katrina is still fresh in everyone's mind and that they got to practice and learn on the job in 2005(at the horrific cost of 1800 lives and $200 billion in damage) with Hurricane Katrina and that there are half as many people to evacuate since NOLA still has not returned to it's pre-Katrina population.

Doug De Clue
Survivor,
Hurricanes Opel, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Fay

[Cooley Hurd]

1. Recommended - I fear you're right...

:(

[zeemike]

2. Great piece...K&R

And I just had the thought?
If God sends messages with natural disasters, like the fundies believe, what message is being sent when a one two punch with dangerous storms comes at the time that the Re thugs plan to celebrate?

[frogcycle]

3. You explain it well

The actual point of landfall is a big, big factor.

One point though - unlike everyplace else, NOLA's big vulnerability is a binary thing. Either the levees/barriers hold and it is "just" wind damage or they don't, and it is a bathtub just like with Katrina. It doesn't really matter how much more or less wind hits the city. It is all about the surge. Everything points to the surge being big enough to top the levees/barriers, which will be bad, and the probability then is that somewhere a breach will occur. At that point the flooding won't stop until the bathtub is full. Period.

This is why this lunatic approach to defending the area is so damned stupid. They simply MUST fill enough of the western end of Pontchartrain to dissipate surges permanently, and they simply MUST build insurmountable barriers - not vertical concrete walls, but massive sand dunes. That, combined with partitioning the city to isolate any potential localized flooding would make a sustainable defense. More concrete barriers built by crooked contractors will not. If Gustav doesn't fill the bathtub, it is only a matter of time - 1 year, two, four, eight? until it does happen again.

If there is not a sustainable solution designed and implemented, then the area should, sadly, be evacuated permanently.

http://www.dbc3.com/NOLAPlan

[ddeclue]

7. In 3 years since Katrina, it has not been a national priority.

Despite 1800 deaths and 200 billion in property damage, the Bush administration has chosen instead to spend 300 billion+ in Iraq instead. Had that much money been actually spent on restoring New Orlean's infrastructure and rebuilding the levies, New Orleans would be in a much better position today to face Gustav.

As it is, New Orleans is probably going to be finished off, sacrificed to Republican neo-con delusions of empire in Iraq.

[malaise]

4. K & R

Good post

[Wilber_Stool]

5. I just checked the satellite map.

If it zoomed straight north right now, it would be big enough to cover the states of Alabama and Georgia. This is one big storm.

[Blackhatjack]

6. Pictures do NOT lie, Govt Officials and the MSM do, and what is not being reported...

The evacuation plan is not occurring quick enough to get everyone out.

*Look at the massive traffic jams, even with all the lanes of travel turned into outgoing lanes.
*Look at the people standing in lines over a mile long to get on a bus to move them outside the city -- many stood for over 10 1/2 hrs yesterday, AND SOME BUSES DID NOT APPEAR as scheduled.
*Nagin has instituted a 'non-looting' priority over the lives of people by instituting a dusk to dawn curfew -- AND PROMISING people will go directly to PRISON and be put in the general population.
*So for the people who have no other way of getting out, what is to be done for them? The Govt has mandated no REd Cross Aid Stations will be allowed anywhere near NOLA. There will be no shelters or aid stations inside the City. No police, firefighter or rescue personnel will be allowed to stay. No superstructure like the SuperDome will be opened to those stranded.
*The Mayor has decreed once tropical storm winds arrive there won't be any further transportation out of NOLA by Plane or Bus.
*THe levees have not been been repaired and they already know that the 8-10 ft levees will be breached by 15 ft storm surges.
*There is no evidence that the water pumps installed since Katrina will operate properly, and in fact that there is such doubt that an investigation was order in the last week to answer that question.

They can say everything is going according to scheduled, but tell that to those on highways who run out of gas, those who cannot get to and on public transportation out of the area, etc.

THis has all the characteristics of another Katrina, and even today the areas of the city inhabited by the poor will take the worst of it.

Hope I am wrong, but it sure looks like another Katrina is on the way...

AND NOW the Hurricane has picked up speed reducing the time available to get everyone out.

[DemReadingDU]

8. Hurricane Katrina (08/23 - 08/31)

From wunderground - shows the path of Katrina, windspeed (mph), pressure (mb), and the category# of the hurricane at various latitudes/longitudes.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200511.asp