Gustav back down to a CAT 3.

[lonestarnot]

Does that mean good news or will he pick back up due to the hot water?

[ixion]

1. we'll have to see what happens when the tail end clears Cuba

right now it's not tightly organized. I read there was some speculation on wind-shear keeping it from re-grouping back to a cat5, but we'll have to see what happens in the next few hours.

[lonestarnot]

2. fickle is sure nerve racking.

[glowing]

3. Katrina ended up being a Cat 3 just before land fall.

[lonestarnot]

8. Yes I know.

[jab105]

4. It went over Cuba, so that caused it to weaken...

there is some wind shear in the Gulf of MExico as well as some areas of colder water...if Gustav takes its time, then this will also weaken...the models just don't show it weakening much though...even a Cat 3, since they didn't repair the levees sufficiently, that wont do them much good...

[POAS]

5. To be expected

as it crossed Cuba, especially at night.

Looking at the infrared satellite images the eye is already reforming and as teh Sun comes up it should re-energize. The warmer Gulf waters will help and the wind shear is minimal this year (from what I've read).

[Lasher]

6. From NOAA

700 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 18 TO 25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/311140.shtml

[hobbit709]

7. It's doing exactly as predicted.

It was expected to lose 20-25mph over Cuba. It will pick up speed again now that it's over open water-almost 90° surface temps is like throwing gasoline on a fire.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807.html
If you listen to the local weather guys on TV-they're always panicking because that gets their ratings up.
Around here I've seen them panic over a "major hard freeze" and then 3 minutes later forecast a low of 34°. My dog is more accurate than our local clowns at predicting major storms. If they're flashing severe weather alerts on the screen and she's sleeping on the floor-ain't nothing gonna happen. If they say 20% and an hour later she gets up and hides in the bathtub-it's gonna come down in buckets.

[lonestarnot]

9. You know I also watch my animals for storm prediction too!

:highfive: When the cats come flying at the door to get in, it's going to be a dilly. Dogs start to indicate nervousness, something about to blow.

[GoesTo11]

10. This is a bit of improvement from earlier prospects

This is the guru of hurricane analysis.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Basically he says it looks like it weakened more than expected over Cuba, and might not strengthen (due to some cool water pockets in its path) as much as expected. Fingers crossed, could be a Category 2 or a weak 3 by the time it gets to shore near NOLA; also says that would mean a smaller storm surge much less likely to cause levees to fail.

[lonestarnot]

12. Has 36 hours to pick up strength. Ackety!

[bullimiami]

11. strong storms always fluctuate up and down. its a crap shoot what it will be at landfall.

they got lucky with katrina that it was only a 3.

[madokie]

13. Heres a satellite pic from this morning

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_sat.html#a_topad

I don't have much experience with hurricanes but I can tell you all about tornations and how they fuck peoples lives up :-)

Hope everyone in this ones path makes it to safe ground