Folks, you're missing something about this hurricane

[Ex Lurker]

New Orleans is not in the direct path of Gustavo. New Orleans and environs will absolutely be affected, some areas severely so. But because of geography and where the storm comes ashore, it will be areas that were largely spared last time, like the West Bank, and the suburbs along the North Shore of Lake Pontchartrain. I think the lower 9th and Lakefront stand a decent chance of being relatively unscathed.

Also, you won't see the terrible hardships and loss of life, because people simply won't be there. They are dead serious about getting everybody out this time, and they are doing a better job, helped by the fact that there are fewer people to deal with. The national guard is back from Iraq and already on duty in New Orleans. If anybody is left in New Orleans proper this time around, it won't be because the various government entities didn't do everything humanly possible to get them out.

The big story is what happen in the rest of the state, and it probably won't get covered nearly as well. Acadiana looks to take a direct hit, and Houma, a town of nearly 35,000 is square in the bullseye and will likely be wiped completely off the map. Baton Rouge and Lafayette, the largest and 4th largest cities in the state, will be raked as the storm comes ashore. By mid week, most of the state will be out of power for an extended period. While Anderson Cooper and his buddies are roaming around NOLA, remember the rest of Louisiana.

[dkf]

1. Thanks for that information.

Where is New Iberia in relation to all of this? My sister's in-laws are there.

[Ex Lurker]

3. Hate to tell you this

but New Iberia will get hit pretty hard. It's far enough inland that it shouldn't flood too bad, but a lot of wind.

[dkf]

6. Oh oh. That sucks.

[roguevalley]

33. I heard this is slow moving so it will sit and grind. I worry about

everyone and everything, especially animals. God, this is so awful.

[Muttocracy]

2. is it headed where Rita went?

[Ex Lurker]

4. Katrina went in on the eastern side of Louisiana

Rita went in on the far western side. If Gustavo comes in as expected, it will split the difference more or less.

[Breeze54]

Katrina didn't flatten NO... the broken levee's from the surge did! n/t

[fishnfla]

5. You are right and wrong at the same time, me thinks

The destruction will be different, more widespread.

But the old areas will get hit too. They worked on those levees for decades and they did not hold. Think they will after a mere 3 years?

Not wanting this to happen. My brother was born and lived most of his life in NOLA. Business in Gretna, home on the North Shore. I think he is moving after this storm

[Breeze54]

7. Sorry but NO is on the NE side of the hurricane and that's BAD!

But I guess we'll all know more on Tuesday.

[eshfemme]

8. Yeesh... what happens if Gustav veers off in another direction.

Any idea if surrounding states are taking any precautions too? I really do NOT want a repetition of NOLA... even though everyone's eyes are focused on New Orleans, if Gustav hits another state and they're taken off guard... I don't want to think about it.

[Breeze54]

10. TX, LA, Mississippi and Alabama all will be effected. n/t

[eshfemme]

13. Wow, I really hope that the GOP really knows that their asses are on the fucking line.

I hear that they're making a big production out of how much they care this time but for the sake of the citizens, I really hope the GOP pulls through here. I don't care if they score big political points as long as people are safe and/or helped.

[fishnfla]

14. GOP pulls thru to what effect?

its up to the storm mostly, I guess, but as far as the human efforts, its a no winner. If the pols come thru and learn from their mistakes, the people that got screwed over last time will be like 'too little too late' or even even more pissed when they consider what might have been. (Except for the kilt and drownt, there is no 'shoulda woulda coulda' for them.)

and I hate to say this, but others very likely will, hell they said it after Katrina....how many times to rebuild or rehab an area that is below sea level and prone to destruction, at how much cost?

I truly fear that a monster storm spells the end for NOLA

[Breeze54]

15. Well, aren't you the bright and shining beacon of hope!

:sarcasm:

:eyes:

[fishnfla]

20. Unfortunately, I fear and am prepared for the worst

perhaps you missed my earlier post upthread. my brother and his family went thru Katrina. To the point of the OP: his home on the North shore was heavily damaged. His business on the west bank survived the storm, but was gutted by looters. The OP is saying, and is very likely correct, that they and many others may have it worse this time. The Times-Picayune agrees. There are too many other personal experiences with 'canes that lead me to respect their power and to expect the worse...I dont want it to be so and am greatly concerned but you cant wish it away. Hell everybody is concerned. They are gonna turn the GOP convention into a telethon.

This time, thankfully, hopefully, lives will be saved. Way too late from last time ( N.O. residents often compare the response to the Tsunami to the response to Katrina). And what about next time? My brother, who rebuilt and was just now getting back on his feet has told me they are leaving town and will no longer live in a coastal area ( which sucks because I have a place to stay and a job for him here).

[Ex Lurker]

16. I think you are right, but for a different reason

People can only take so much, and this will be the last straw for many. I have a friend who hopes if it comes in, it wipes his home clean to the slab, so the decision to leave permanently will be easy.

[davsand]

28. Sometimes you just can't DEAL with any more.

Up here in Illinois we don't have to face hurricanes like you folks on the coast do. We get tornadoes instead. Maybe they are not as widespread, but they are every bit as devastating if your house or business gets hit.

We live close to a small town that has been hit multiple times in my lifetime. Literally, they lost about 2/3 of the town to the last really big tornado. In my lifetime I have personally helped clean up three different storms there. I live a few miles from there and in my town we have cleaned up a couple of times from suspected tornadoes and we have been lucky that it has been mostly downed limbs and power lines.

After the last really big storm there were several families that left for good. They did have insurance, and they did have the ability to rebuild but they chose NOT to rebuild THERE. I can't say I disagree with them, either. How many times can you get the shit kicked out of you by a storm before you decide you are gonna try someplace else?

Something else that I want to point out about all this is the level of anxiety that hangs on for the rest of your life after you live thru this kind of stuff. This is not just about worrying over your "stuff." This is a matter of anxiety EVERY time and all the time. If there is ANY kind of hard weather moving in your general anxiety level starts to climb.

My heart goes out to NOLA and to everybody else dealing with this stuff.

Stay safe, and peace to you and yours.



Laura

[trof]

23. I'm in Foley, AL. Some 'mandatory' evacuations.

You can google my location, but I'm 10 miles straight-line distance north of the beach, on Wolf Bay.

Small towns and communities south of Mobile (Coden, Bayou La Batre, etc.) are now under mandatory evacuation orders.
So is the Ft. Morgan peninsula on the east side of Mobile Bay.

But they can't really make you leave your house.
They just make you understand that you're totally on your own until after the storm blows through.

Frankly, unless it changes course to the east, I think we're OK.

[Barack_America]

9. A 15-20 storm surge is being forecast for New Orleans proper...

It is entirely possible, and quite likely, that New Orleans will flood again.

[KharmaTrain]

11. A Couple of Points...The MRGO Canal...

When I was in New Orleans last Spring the one thing locals told me was that the city itself and its canals withstood the initial shock of Katrina...the real horror came when a storm surge came up the Misssissippi River-Gulf Outlet Canal...better known as Mr. Go.

That water overwhelemed the Industrial canal that flattened the lower 9th and also led to power and pump failures that backed up other canals that led to the London canal breech.



Here's the wiki on Katrina's affects...

Levees along MR-GO were breached in approximately 20 places along its length, directly flooding most of Saint Bernard Parish and New Orleans East. Storm surge from MR-GO is also a leading suspect in the three breaches of the Industrial Canal.

Three months before Katrina, Hassan Mashriqui, a storm surge expert at Louisiana State University's Hurricane Center, called MR-GO a "critical and fundamental flaw" in the Corps' hurricane defenses, a "Trojan Horse" that could amplify storm surges 20 to 40 percent. Following the storm, an engineering investigation and computer modelling showed that the outlet intensified the initial surge by 20 percent, raised the height of the wall of water about three feet, and increased the velocity of the surge from 3 feet per second (0.9 m/s) to 8 feet per second (2.4 m/s) in the funnel. Mashriqui believes this contributed to the scouring that undermined the levees and floodwalls along the outlet and Industrial Canal. "Without MRGO, the flooding would have been much less," he said. "The levees might have overtopped, but they wouldn't have been washed away." The Army Corps of Engineers disputes this causality and maintains Katrina would have overwhelmed the levees with or without the contributing effect of MR-GO.<5>

While Lake Ponchetrain may miss a brunt of the storm, the Mr. Go lies right in the dangerous southwest quandrant footprint...and note where the surge pattern is compared with the dotted blue line in the map above...



A serious surge would create havoc in St. Bernard and also send a rush of water into the Industrial Canal. Hopefully there are no barges in there this time unlike Katrina.

So, I'm very, very concerned about my beloved NOLA...and hope that other precautions that have been taken...new modular homes that are built higher to withstand a canal topping of Katrina's size, stronger walls on the canals (I'll hope they're a bit stronger this time than they were in 2005...despite reports they might not be...I want to play optimist on this one) and a more informed population should lead to a different result this time. I dare not to predict...but almost everyone I spoke with there (and we're seeing it with DU'ers here) aren't gonna take chances this time and are heading out of town. Yes there are still poor and elderly who aren't so fortunate, but hopefully the city's new response system will be more alert this time. Also, some of the worst areas of the lower 9th are still inhabitable...get off the beaten tourist path and you'll find blocks that still remain house shells and open fields.

[Dead_Parrot]

12. You've missed something

Other places will indeed take a beating, but NOLA is particularly vulnerable because it lies at and below sea-level: Where the eye hits is secondary to the size of the storm surge for them.

And if Gustav hits as a cat 4, that surge will be pretty high.

Gustav is currently on track to hit where Betsy did in '65 (SW corner of the delta) - which caused quite a bit of flooding and took dozens of lives, from the surge entering Lake Pontchartrain: Betsy was a cat 3 at landfall, with a smaller surge than Gustav is likely to produce.

[brettdale]

17. lets hope

The storm takes a dramatic turn and moves out to sea.

[uppityperson]

18. k&r for all LA coastal residents, and MS, AL, TX with Gustav, graphic here...

Indeed NO gets lots of coverage due to the terrible flooding and crappy fix of the levees, but a whole lot of other places and people are in danger also. Looking at the map I noticed Houma getting hit hard again and the MS coast also. Thank you for pointing out that NO is not the only thing at risk here, and best wishes to all down there.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W+gif/143912W_sm.gif

[dendrobium]

19. The hurricane is not only the eye.

The hurricane is very large. Please do not be deceived. You do not have to get a direct hit. In fact, the north east quadrant of the storm is often the most powerful. There is no sense in trying to pretty this up. This is a bad situation for everyone.

Good luck to everyone in the path of this storm. Gustav killed at least 11 people here in Jamaica and it was "just a tropical storm". Most of the deaths resulted from flooding, not winds. Everyone should just play it safe and evacuate.

[Danascot]

29. Here's a satellite image

The outer edges are not far from coastal areas and effects will be starting to be felt soon.

[ThomWV]

21. There isn't a person in the world that can tell you where that storm will make landfall

And certainly not which neighborhoods will be effected. Its still 1,000 miles from landfall. The thing could make a U-turn and hit Aruba for all we know. Weather prediction is one of the most fascinating sciences there is, but its anything but as exact as would be required for the predictions above.

[fishnfla]

25. for all you know it could hit aruba

clearly

the 3-day forecasts are accurate or nearly accurate 90% of the time. They are not 'predicting the weather' A Gulf of Mexico hurricane, over warm water and approaching relatively shallow water with no upper level steering currents is easier to call. The Coarealis (sp?) effect increases the size and strength of the strom the further North he/she goes

[200overcast]

31. 1000 miles from landfall?

:silly:

[malaise]

22. I think you are correct

I'm also worried about Houston flooding. I called my niece and told her to head to her brother's home away from danger.

[barbtries]

27. hey malaise

been worrying about you. how was gustav in jamaica? :hi:
glad you're back online and if you posted earlier sorry i missed it.

[barbtries]

24. good information and good advice.

send it to the networks and news channels. :)

[Jawja]

26. What Gustav is going to do is remind the

public of the immoral failure of George W. Bush's criminal government to respond to a National disaster.

The GOP will be sharing the news cycle with this hurricane; and those photos of John McCain eating birthday cake with Bush when Katrina was devastating Louisiana and Mississippi will resonate from the Pacific Coast to the Florida panhandle.

Karma is indeed a BITCH.

[Fumesucker]

30. The West Bank is right across the river from N'awlins

And the north shore of Ponchartrain is quite a ways from both of them.

[ddeclue]

32. Actually this situation is far worse.

If current track projections hold, the storm will hit the NOLA metro area on the front right quadrant of the storm which has the highest winds, highest rains, highest storm surge and highest number of embedded tornadoes.

The storm will likely be a Cat 3 to Cat 4 storm and if projections hold will hit much closer to NOLA than Katrina did.

Add to that the fact that the damage from Katrina is nowhere near repaired so the damage will likely be far far worse.

Let's add to the mix that there is a good possibility of a second hurricane (Hanna) making landfall in the Continental U.S. hitting between South Florida and South Carolina sometime in the next week. The media is SO focused on the devastating hit that is about to happen to Louisiana that they aren't even seeing another clobbering on the way for Central Florida (which has suffered 4 hurricanes: Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Fay) in four years.

All in all, Hanna will not likely have nearly the consequences that Gustav will have but it will be just one more place our totally over stretched National Guard and FEMA will need to deal with and will take away from Florida's ability to render aid to Louisian, Alabama and Mississippi.

One can only hope that we don't get an earthquake in California, a volcanic eruption in Washington or at Yellowstone, a pacific hurricane in Hawaii, a terrorist attack in NY or some other combination of calamities to add to the problems that are about to occur in New Orleans and probably in Florida too.

The only advantage that Ray Naglin, Bobby Jindal and George W. Bush have going for them this time is that Katrina is still fresh in everyone's mind and that they got to practice (at the cost of 1800 lives and $200 billion in damage) with Hurricane Katrina and that there are half as many people to evacuate since NOLA still has not returned to it's pre-Katrina population.

Doug De Clue
Survivor,
Hurricanes Opel, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Fay

[jules1962]

34. okay since nobody else remarked

about the remark about "Anderson Cooper and his buddies roaming around NOLA", I guess I will. Cooper stayed and got out in that toxic water to try and help rescue victims of Katrina.He did far more than our government did. He stayed to show the world the plight of this area. My hats off to him and others that showed us the failing of Bush and Co. during this and the aftermath.