What happens when the Russians take Tbilisi?

[bushmeister0]

The Russians can write their own ticket in Georgia, they've created "facts on the ground" all the blustering of Condi and W. won't be able to undo. If I were in the White House right now, I'd be trying to make flight arrangements for Saakashvili, before its too late.

McClatchy reports.

"The Russians have made clear that despite the political demands of Washington, and treaties signed in Moscow, they are in control.

'There is no doubt that Russia right now, today, is an occupying power in Georgia,' said Lasha Zhvania, the chair of the Georgian parliament's foreign relations committee.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that Russia would take 'as much (time) as is needed' to pull out its military units.

As he was speaking, Russian armored fighting vehicles, tanks and troop transport trucks were staged alongside the side of the road between Gori and Igoeti."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/117/story/48673.html

(Igoeti, being one step closer to Tbilisi.)

McClatchy, continued . . .

"A policeman, Maj. Malkhaz Khubulovi, said in a dejected voice that the Russian soldiers 'just do whatever they want.'

That sense of panic and despair is exactly what the Russian troops want, and explains why they have been staging late-night feints toward Tbilisi, said Richard Holbrooke, a former U.S. representative to the United Nations.

'Their real goal here is to overthrow President (Mikheil) Saakashvili,' Holbrooke said."


Gregory Feifer of NPR reported this evening:

"Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says troops will start pulling back from Georgia to South Ossetia Monday.

But a day after Russia signed a cease-fire with Georgia, Russian forces appeared to be still tightening their control over Georgian territory.

Hundreds of Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers and trucks have been seen moving into the Georgian separatist region of South Ossetia from Russia in what appeared to be a major mobilization."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93671640

I don't get the impression Vlad & Co. are ready to just hand over all this territory they've gained so easily any time soon. Hell, by taking Abkhazia away from Georgia, they increase their Black Sea coast by 25 miles.

Every time they say they're moving out, they move a little closer to Tbilisi.

What's going to happen Russian troops -- sorry, "peacekeepers" -- go rolling into Tbilisi, as they withdraw backwards?

[rustydad]

1. Well

Russia is Baaaaaaaaaack! They are bad ass and bush et al are twittering nabobs. All we have left is the use of nucs and even w won't go there. Bob

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. Congress will give the Pentagon a lot more money for new toys to "protect" us from the big bogeyman.

As they always do.

[stillcool]

11. I don't know which boogeyman...

to be most afraid of. So many choices.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. I'm kinda fond of Fidel. He's always reliably scary to lotsa' folks.

Hugo has pretty much panned out as really terrifying and people are yawning over dreadful Osama. Maybe Mighty Grenada will make a resurgence.

Don't worry though. The Pentagon and the politicians have a knack for dreaming up ogres to finance their campaigns and keep the "defense" industry milking the suckers.

[JVS]

3. They do an endzone dance!

[bushmeister0]

4. Only after they spike Saakashvili's head first!

[JVS]

6. I think they'll try to take him to the Hague just to cheese off the West

[Monk06]

8. Did you say spike?

[DFW]

5. Cheneybush have some real leverage, drastic though it may be

I have heard through diplomatic back channels that the White
House has demanded that Russian troops stay far away from taking
Tbilisi or else the White House will immediately cease to offer
Russian dressing on salads.

Now THERE'S a threat that should stop Putin in his tracks........

[bushmeister0]

7. I'll have the "freedom" dressing, please.

[Turbineguy]

9. Maybe the Russians see

a change coming in the Whitehouse and are doing a Michael Corleone in the six months they have left to get away with this.

Obama in the Whitehouse will bring the Europeans in as allies, not buffers.

[bushmeister0]

10. I'd like to believe that Obama will be able to make any difference to Putin's

plans for reuniting the Soviet Union, but alas our military will still be a shambles and our dipomacy will still, like Luca Brasi, be sleeping with fishes.

[Truth2Tell]

12. The Russians aren't going to take Tbilisi

:eyes:

Neo-con hyperventilation.

Russia is simply gonna make sure the Georgian military infrastructure has been thoroughly demolished. Then they'll retreat to South Ossetia. They learned their lesson in Afghanistan. Too bad America hasn't.

[bushmeister0]

13. I hope you're right.

I don't know about "Neo-con hyperventilation," though.

Afghanistan was before Putin was in power. The lessons he's learned have come from Chechnya, where he's basically dealt with his problems by blowing them to smithereens.

I don't see anything to stop him from marching right into Tbilisi and removing Saakashvili & co.

At the very least, I would expect them to continue to feint towards taking Tbilisi until the administration either crumbles from the economic strangulaton or W. sells Sasha down to river to get the Russians the hell away from our precious oil pipeline.

[bemildred]

15. FWIW, it seems to me if the Russians wanted Tbilisi, they would be there now.

No reason to procrastinate, if that's what you are going to do.

And I doubt that they need to do anything more about Saakashvili. I'm not sure they would even want to get rid of him, he is like a gift to them.

[bushmeister0]

17. My thinking is they're waiting until they have enough troops to

occupy the place sufficiently. They have learned from our mistakes.

I don't buy the theory about them wanting to keep Sasha around.

This is what Vlad said the other day about him:

"Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages. And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection."

He wants Saakashvili's head in a noose.

[bemildred]

21. Well, OK, you go with that. nt

[Truth2Tell]

16. Putin inherited Chechnya.

I really don't think the Russians want an extended guerrilla war on their hands. Nothing to gain and everything to lose. It would defy common sense. And despite what our media whores would like us to believe, Russian foreign policy has been very common-sense based in recent years - unlike our own.

Zbigniew Brzezinski lured them in once. Not this time.

And speaking of neo-con hyperventilation: what makes you think Putin has "plans for reuniting the Soviet Union?"

[bushmeister0]

18. Putin hardly inherited it. He used it as a stepping stone to take over.

He sent his KBG buddies into several Moscow apartments and blew them up to create an excuse to go into Chechnya.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings

Chechnya was disasterous for both sides, but Putin seems to feel it was a great success.

Hardly what I would call "common-sense based" foreign policy.

I'd say his recent threats of nuclear annihilation against, Poland, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and any and all countries not onboard with his plans for Russian resurgence would tend to point towards reuniting Russia with its former "glory" with you know who at the helm.

[Truth2Tell]

19. Now you're just being goofy.

:crazy:

Please link to these "recent threats of nuclear annihilation."

And thanks for the right-wing tinfoil on the apartment bombings. I think it's clear where you're coming from now.

[bushmeister0]

20. OK, so it was the usual asian-looking terrorists who blew up all those buildings?

That the Moscow police actually caught the KBG redhanded actually setting up another bomb, just goes to prove it was the Chechens.

Uh huh.

I think I know where you're coming from now.

Russian general threatens Poland with nuclear attack:

"'Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,' (Gen. Anatoly) Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons 'against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them.' Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax."

http://www.startribune.com/world/27012084.html?elr=KArks:DCiUBcy7hUiacyKUU

Is that clear enough for you?

[Truth2Tell]

22. Fail.

Sorry, you fail. That link in no way supports what you said about Putin threatening to nuke a whole list of countries and reclaim USSR glory.

Welcome to the new booga booga. Are you sure Putin isn't in league with Osama?

[bushmeister0]

25. Will you get off the whole reclaiming soviet glory crap.

It's painfully clear Putin is trying to regain ground the country lost in the 90's.

That's plain for all to see. I don't generally get my news from FOX, which what you seem to be implying, if I was I'd be over at RePuke right now.

Russian generals generally don't come out and say they'll use nukes unless it's OK'd from above. use your brain and get off the witch hunt.

[Truth2Tell]

31. I have no idea where you get your news

but wherever it is, it's obviously being served with a large dose of very silly anti-Russian/Putin propaganda. Booga booga!

[riverdeep]

23. By the time the Bush term is over,

I wouldn't be surprised if the wall between East and West Germany is put back up. Yes, the Bush administration had their grubby hands in this too. There are neo-cons floating all around this story from Rove's vacation in the region, to Condi's visit before the conflict erupted to McCain's adviser working for Georgia, to the total incompetence shown after the conflict started.

After a meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Ms. Rice emphasized the urgency of bringing the fighting to a halt, rather than how and why it started. But around Washington, there are some rumblings already over whether the crisis might have somehow been headed off.

In a flurry of briefings intended to counter the critics and overcome the impression of having been caught flatfooted, senior Bush administration officials tried to paint a portrait of American reason and calm in the midst of hot tempers in what several called “a hot zone.”

"After Mixed U.S. Messages, a War Erupted in Georgia"
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/13/washington/13diplo.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss


Sometimes I start to wonder, can they really be this incompetent? This is the same woman who, when tasked with the security of the US, 'could never have imagined' planes flying into buildings after getting a memo entitled 'Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US'.

[bushmeister0]

26. It's hard to imagine, I know, but I think that, yes, they can be that imcompetent.

This is bunch whose very DNA has "government can do no good" written into it.

They've even gone as far as to outsourse our national security both military and intelligence. Some 70% of the US intelligece community's work is now done by private companies. I mean, WTF?

If you've ever worked for a big corporation you know the guys who run the show are the biggest bunch of stupid assholes you've ever met. Sorry, but I don't want every function of my government, from policing the streets, to reacting to a natural disaster, to protecting the national defense in these guys hands, but this is what we've got.

An MBA is no qualification for running a country.

This entire administration is the living enbodiment of the Peter Principle, which is how corporate America works.

[Monk06]

24. Russia has no intention of taking Tbilisi. That's Saakashvili's propaganda wetdream.

He can't wait for the US to move in and take
Tbilsi like it was the Berlin Airlift.

It is important to remember that this guy is
a Georgian expat who spent more of his life in
the US than Georgia.

He worked at the same law firm as Guilani for
criminy sakes.

He's a US plant.

[DailyGrind51]

27. They will hang a banner from a Russian ship reading "Mission Accomplished" in Russian.

http://www.1800blogger.com/2008/08/12/russia-vs-georgia-medvedev-declares-mission-accomplished/

[KharmaTrain]

28. Now Let's Put Shoes On Another Foot

Imagine Americans in Baja are attacked by the Mexican government. Would this country sit by and let it happen...or if they decided to "regain" lost territory in the Southwest. Should the US just sit still and let it happen. Or, letsay a state decides to succeede and then starts bombarding a government bastion (think South Carolina)...how would you react? Fret?

Until two weeks ago, my bets are a majority of people out here thought the only Georgia was the one that has peaches and Michael Vick...and I'll bet a bright shiny dime given a map, they still couldn't find Abkhazia or South Ossetia. But now, we're all "experts"...300 years of Russian/Georgian history be damned, it's all about America and our distorted view of the world.

So...if the Russians go into Tblisi it would be just like a certain military marching into Baghdad. I don't see any military or strategic purpose of the Russians attempting to absorb Georgia again...why bother when you've got the U.S. paying a lot of the freight in the country now...less of a drain on the Russian economy. And then what?

Bottom line is if the Russians want to march into Tblisi, there's ZERO we can do. Sabre rattle? Send in troops and arms? What troops?

It's long time this country realized the earth doesn't revolve around us...and trying to impose our economics and politics and multi-nationals on others will have implications.

No doubt the right wing pines for the days of the Cold War...bring out the old strawmen cause those were the "good old days"...far more satisfying to demonize than those dirty A-rabs...and it diverts attention from the U.S's own adventurism that emboldened Putin to flex his muscles as well.

[bushmeister0]

29. Georgia has been on my mind for a while now.

"But now, we're all 'experts.'"

I have been following Pooty Poot's adventures for a while now.

In Jan. '06 I wrote:

Georgia on my mind:

"The big story that's being totally ignored today is the power crisis in Georgia. The Georgian president Mikail Saakashvili cut his visit short to the economic conference in Davos to go back to Tbilisi to deal with his country's energy problem caused by two simultaneous bombings of pipelines and power lines on the Russian side of the border. The total lack of power coming from Russia (without love) has sent a modernizing, western leaning democracy back into the middle ages. The NYT today basically buys the Russian line, hook-line-and-sinker, that it was the Chechans or some other group bend on disrupting Russian's energy infrastructure. I don't believe it for a second: there's no doubt in mind that Vlad 'the Impaler' Putin is taking advantage of his leverage over the US right now vis the Iran nuke issue, to get a little payback from that young punk Saakashvili."

http://bushmeister0.tripod.com/bushmeister0/index.blog/1398514/hamas-georgia-and-the-pla/

Just this past March I wrote about the effect W.'s apparent impulsive decision to recognize Kosovo's independence has had on the Georgian situation.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/bushmeister0/24

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at with the whole mexico thing. Are you saying the Russians are justified in retaking parts of Georgia or the Georgians were justified in trying to retake South Ossetia?

You write: "I don't see any military or strategic purpose of the Russians attempting to absorb Georgia again."

I do, the only pipelines taking Caspian oil into Europe, which would make them totally dependent on Russia for most of its energy. Vlad takes the pieplines, he's got a monopoly.

Though, probably he'd prefer to simply have a friendlier regime in power in Tbilisi, one that would hew more to the Russian way of looking on things. Occupying all of Georgia would not only be a big international black eye, it would also tie Russia down when it's trying to throw its weight around the entire area. I should think they're just as ticked off at Ukraine and Poland, if not more so, at this point.

"No doubt the right wing pines for the days of the Cold War."

No doubt they do, but they don't control what Vlad does. I keep getting all this crap about being a neocon dupe for pointing out what a creep Putin is. I'm not saying we should be marching into Georgia, you're right "there's ZERO we can do," about it if they decide to go into Tbilisi, I'm just trying to point out that Vlad is no saint.

Just because BushCo is bad doesn't make the Russians any better.

In this case, there is actually a democratic country being attacked by a decidedly non-democratic state and the people of Georgia want to remain democratic and independent.

I don't know what the solution to this thing is, but writing off 4 million people, leaving them to the tender mercies of Vlad the Impaler, just because the current administration is run by a bunch of idiots doesn't seen like much of an answer either.

[KharmaTrain]

30. There Are Too Many Conflicts Of Interest At Play

Thank you for your thoughtful response...and my "experts" line is more directed at the corporate media than it is at any one here...I believe those who are members of this site take the extra measure to educate themselves on issues and see these situations as learning opportunities rather than political points.

Pootie is far from being a saint. He's a nationalist and has emerged in a country that traded one form of patrician control for another. But it's also a different Russia...where it's now a player in the global economy...a place the Soviet Union never went.

I agree that control of the Baku pipelines is a big motivation for Russian actions...but I also contend it benefits certain elements in this country who make more if the oil stays in the ground than if it goes into gas tanks. The fact that boooshie was joking with his pal Vlad while tanks were rolling toward Gori shows how entangled these webs have become. No, it's not a simple situation to grasp....especially me.

I'm very sympathetic to the plight of the Georgian people. They have endured centuries of outside domination and repression and their independence must be supported. However, it's hard to support a government that has gotten in bed with the biggest bullies on the planet and has been used by both sides to gain political and propaganda points with this crisis.

I really don't think it's in Russia's interest to occupy the whole of Georgia...as you say, a puppet government would do just as well. And, I see this more of a threat to the Azerbaijani's (who control the pipleines), Armenia and the other nearby former Soviet Republics about letting the U.S. get a military or political foothold in that region.

Cheers and thank you for your thoughts.

[Truth2Tell]

32. a democratic country being attacked by a decidedly non-democratic state

Why do you think the police-state Georgians are any more democratic than the Russians? Is it just because they are oligarch-style capitalists? Why don't you ask some of the imprisoned and tortured political opposition figures in Georgia how democratic their country is? How can a President whose entire political movement was financed from abroad (mainly the US) be considered "democratic?" How would that fly in the US? Of course the Georgians don't get to hear about that because their "democratic" media is fully controlled by their "democratic" police-state.

[Overseas]

33. Don't buy into the Cold War Flashback spin designed to promote John Sidney McCain III

There's a whole new balance of powers these days after Bush Cheney have turned the former superpower USA into a bankrupt beggar in debt to one of the other superpowers, the People's Republic of China. Whoops.