The Top 5 Senate Vulnerables, Revisited and Revised

[babylonsister]

The Top 5 Senate Vulnerables, Revisited and Revised
By Bob Benenson, CQ Staff

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Top 5 Vulnerable Senate Seats

Virginia: The presidential campaign of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama announced this week that former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner — who is running to succeed retiring five-term Republican Sen. John W. Warner — will be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention being held the last week of this month. The move was seen as a signal that Obama is following through on plans to seriously compete for the 13 electoral votes in Virginia, which has gone Republican in each of the past 10 presidential elections.

But the Democrats would not be doing this if they also weren’t fully confident that Mark Warner is going to win his Senate race, just as they felt certain about Obama’s prospects in his 2004 Senate bid when they picked him for a keynote speech that launched his meteoric rise in national politics.

And it again looks like the Democrats are making a pretty safe bet. Warner — whose highly popular tenure as governor from 2002 to 2006 set the stage for other significant Democratic victories in a state that long had been trending Republican — is heavily favored over his gubernatorial predecessor, Republican James S. Gilmore III, with the most recent poll earlier this month showing the Democrat with a whopping 24 percentage-point lead.

New Mexico: Nothing has changed of yet to shake the perception that five-term Democratic Rep. Tom Udall has a solid edge over Republican Rep. Steve Pearce in the contest to succeed retiring six-term Republican Sen. Pete V. Domenici . While Udall was unopposed for the Democratic Senate nomination, Pearce made the finals by narrowly winning a bruising primary, and the congressman faces a tough obstacle in winning over those supporters of Rep. Heather A. Wilson , his more centrist GOP opponent, who argued during the primary campaign that Pearce is too conservative to win a highly competitive swing state such as New Mexico.

Alaska: FBI and IRS agents raided Stevens’ Alaska home in July 2007 as part of a sweeping political corruption investigation involving the Alaska-based Veco oil field services company. This, in turn, emboldened Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the most prominent Democratic officeholder in the strongly Republican-leaning state, to launch a challenge to Stevens after a series of elections in which his party essentially ceded the seat.

That cloud of ethics controversy that hung over Stevens for a year burst into a storm when federal prosecutors charged he had failed to report more than $250,000, including major renovations to the Alaska house, an expensive car and a top-of-the-line gas grill, provided to him by Veco executives.

more...

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002938213

[Warpy]

1. NM is fascinating

because first Domenici and then Wilson used base closure hysteria during every election to scare all the military retirees in this state into voting for them. If there's one thing that terrifies a military retiree, it's the loss of access to a PX. Both Domenici and Wilson were tarred by attorneygate as both made threatening phone calls to the state attorney, Iglesias. Domenici's seat is now open because he pled senility to avoid prosecution.

Pearce is one of the dumbest people on the planet and would give Inhofe and Bunning a run for the title of biggest dummy in the Senate should he get cheated into office. The fundies and big ranchers love him, though.

My hope is that Udall has a lock.

Alaska is a little more problematic, a traditionally GOP state that is highly unlikely to elect a Democrat even if they run Jesus Christ and the GOP puts up Satan.

[Muttocracy]

2. and NY should add 2 more Dems to the house

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002911219

:bounce: