Aug 16, 2008
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page.html The bear is back
By Richard M Bennett
Despite being rather moth-eaten and while still missing a claw or two, the Russian bear is definitely back in business.
The conflict with Georgia over its troublesome breakaway provinces has as much to do with nationalistic pride and the Kremlin's wish to reassert itself on the international scene as a determination to protect the predominately Russian citizens of South Ossetia or the determinedly independent-minded Abkhazians.
Despite constant assertions by Washington that Russia risks isolation for its military actions of the past week, it is arguable that it is United States itself that faces the greatest dilemma.To enforce any form of diplomatic or economic "punishment" on the Russians, Washington desperately needs the wholehearted support of the international community and its closest allies in particular.
For a variety of reasons, this might not be forthcoming.
The former communist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia are increasingly and rightly wary of the growing confidence of Russia's leadership and the resurgence of Russian military capability.
Western Europe remains significantly reliant on Russian energy supplies and particularly at a time of the increasing instability of international markets.
India and China may well be loath to support Washington, particularly as both nations would wish to keep a free hand in dealing with areas such as Kashmir or Tibet. While not directly comparable, both these long-running problems are similar enough in that the protection of the lives and rights of their citizens may require military action at any time.
It cannot be seriously denied that Washington itself also desperately needs Russian cooperation in the "war on terror" and to be "on side" over the Middle East and Iran in particular.--------------------------
Saakashvili - nationalist crusader
President Mikheil Saakashvili came to power after November 2003 elections on a wave of nationalism and with the promise of recovering both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In the past four years, the acquisition of significant numbers of more modern armored vehicles, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, small arms, armed helicopters, reconnaissance drones and much else could not have failed to raise alarm in the breakaway provinces and in the Kremlin.
Western intelligence services were also fully aware of military developments and indeed significant numbers of US and Israeli military personnel helped the Georgian special forces in particular in preparing for large-scale counter-insurgency operations ... exactly the type of training required for any serious attempt to suppress the citizens of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who were certain to violently resist any Georgian takeover.
Richard M Bennett, intelligence and security consultant, AFI Research.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH16Ag01.html