Snub for Iran eases nuclear crisis

[Dover]

Snub for Iran eases nuclear crisis
By M K Bhadrakumar

A window of opportunity for Iran to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) seemed to have opened when on July 18 the Russian news agency quoted a source in the Foreign Ministry in Moscow hinting at such a prospect. It happened two days after Washington let it be known that a shift in its Iran policy was under way.

The unnamed Russian diplomat said the SCO foreign ministers at a meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, a week later would decide on whether to lift a moratorium on bringing in new states. "The moratorium has lasted for two years. We have now decided to consider the possibility of the SCO's enlargement," he said. It appeared that weathering US opposition, Moscow was pushing

Iran's pending request for SCO membership. Founded in 2001, the SCO currently comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran has observer status.

However, in the event, following the meeting in Dushanbe on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov revealed that the foreign ministers did not discuss the enlargement of the SCO, while finalizing the agenda of the organization's summit meeting on August 28, and that Iran wouldn't be able to get the status of an associate member.

Not only that, Friday's meeting also decided to set up a "mechanism for dialogue partnership to establish links with all countries and international organizations that are interested in the SCO". In other words, the US may finally be on the verge of establishing links with the SCO.

Since such issues are invariably decided within the SCO on the basis of a consensus between Russia and China, it stands to reason that either Russia didn't press Iran's membership case or China disfavored the idea. On balance, it seems to be a combination of both. Conceivably, Moscow didn't press after informally ascertaining Beijing's lukewarm attitude. Tajikistan, which hosts the SCO summit in August, has openly favored Iran's membership. If the two Big Brothers had given the green signal, Tajikistan would have asked Iran to come in from the cold. No doubt, Tehran, which openly canvassed for SCO membership, has suffered a diplomatic setback.

On the face of it, neither Russia nor China would have any conflict of interests to keep Iran out of SCO membership. Both countries enjoy excellent relations with Iran. As The Russian news agency acknowledged, "Both China and Russia have major commercial interests in Iran. China wants Iranian oil and gas, and to sell weapons and other goods to that country, while Moscow hopes to sell more weapons and nuclear energy technology to Tehran. The Kremlin also needs Iran's endorsement for a multinational arrangement to exploit the Caspian Sea's energy resources." They have been, arguably, the principal beneficiaries of the Iran nuclear problem. Their "principled position" on the Iran problem enabled them to optimally tap business opportunities in Iran so long as the West continued to boycott Iran and Tehran needed friends.

What emerges is that Moscow and Beijing take great care that their doublespeak on the Iran problem never quite gets to the point of antagonizing Washington. As for Tehran, being an experienced player itself, it let the charade continue and even to try to extract any advantages out of it as far as possible, until options opened up with regard to Iran's relations with the West....>

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JG29Ak02.html