What would it take for Obama to Lose? Obama @368EV, but 253EV if 3% of votes Uncounted & 6% Switched

[tiptoe]

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7/24 Election Model: Obama 368EV, State-54.1%, Natl-53.8%; 253EV if 3% votes Uncounted & 6% Switched - x (TIA)

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: July 24

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update.

?click">Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

?click">Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

?click">Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Polls

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

?click">Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

?click">Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

?click">Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

7/24/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 47.06 (53.33) 
 41.18 (46.67) 
 47.20 (53.03) 
 41.80 (46.97) 
54.12
45.88
53.80
46.20
368
170

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

5P MA

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
NBC
NYT/CBS
ABC/WP

Zogby
Quinnipiac
Newsweek h
Pew
CNN

DemCorp
Time
Bloomberg
USA Today
Newsweek

Date
            
23-Jul
22-Jul
21-Jul
14-Jul
13-Jul

13-Jul
13-Jul
10-Jul
29-Jun
29-Jun

25-Jun
25-Jun
23-Jun
19-Jun
19-Jun

Size
            
3000LV
2645RV
1003RV
1462RV
1000RV

1039LV
1725LV
1037RV
1574RV
906RV

2000RV
805RV
1115RV
1310LV
896RV

MoE
            
1.79%
1.91%
3.09%
2.56%
3.10%

3.04%
2.36%
3.04%
2.47%
3.26%

2.19%
3.45%
2.93%
2.71%
3.27%

Obama
            
48
46
47
45
50

47
50
44
48
50

49
47
49
50
51

McCain
            
45
42
41
39
42

40
41
41
40
45

45
43
37
44
36

Spread
            
3
4
6
6
8

7
9
3
8
5

4
4
12
6
15

 

Obama
            
47.0
47.0
47.8
47.2
47.8

47.8
48.2
47.6
48.6
49.0

49.2
48.4
48.6
48.2
48.0

McCain
            
41.8
40.8
40.6
40.6
40.8

41.4
42.4
42.8
42.0
42.8

41.0
40.2
40.6
41.6
41.8

|

Obama
            
53.03
53.53
54.07
53.76
53.95

53.59
53.20
52.65
53.64
53.38

54.55
54.63
54.48
53.67
53.45

Win Prob
               
99.15
99.42
99.76
99.55
99.71

99.35
99.07
96.45
99.37
98.86

99.89
99.83
99.84
99.20
98.06

 

Obama
            
53.80
54.32
54.76
54.52
54.64

54.28
53.84
53.36
54.24
53.92

55.08
55.24
55.08
54.32
54.12

McCain
            
46.20
45.68
45.24
45.48
45.36

45.72
46.16
46.64
45.76
46.08

44.92
44.76
44.92
45.68
45.88

Diff
         
7.6
8.6
9.5
9.0
9.3

8.6
7.7
6.7
8.5
7.8

10.2
10.5
10.2
8.6
8.2

Win Prob
               
99.83
99.90
99.95
99.92
99.94

99.85
99.76
98.88
99.82
99.59

99.97
99.96
99.96
99.77
99.32

MoE
            
2.49%
2.74%
2.83%
2.82%
2.80%

2.83%
2.66%
2.88%
2.86%
2.91%

2.91%
3.09%
2.97%
2.99%
3.27%

 

 

Based on the latest state polls, projections and win probabilities, the 5000-election trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that Obama will win 54.1% of the two-party vote with 368 electoral votes — if the election is fraud-free and held today. The projection base case scenario assumes that he will win 60% of the undecided vote allocation (UVA). The national model 5-poll projection average confirms the state model (within 0.3%) and indicates that he will win 53.8%.

Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%. The probability of winning the electoral vote is based on a 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation; the probability of winning the popular vote is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. The near 100% match of state and national model vote shares and win probabilities confirms the polls as well as the mathematical methodology — just as it did in the final 2004 Election Model projection.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

In 2000 and 2004, the discrepancy was primarily due to two factors:

1. 5 million votes (70-80% Democratic) were uncounted in 2000; 3 million in 2004.
   
2. In 2004, approximately 5 million Kerry votes were switched to Bush.

...

 

[liberalla]

1. ... and should'nt we expect they'll increase their

election theft numbers and percentages? Possibly 9 million uncounted and 7.5% switched? They've been hard at work disqualifying existing voters and making it more difficult for new voters to register.

We need to win by a larger margin. A landslide, hopefully!

[tiptoe]

2. yep: "...Republicans continue their efforts to disenfranchise millions of Democratic voters. ...

The GOP Plan to Disenfranchise Millions of Democratic Voters

[tiptoe]

3. "a landslide"...necessarily. nt

[tiptoe]

4. CHART -- Effect of Fraudulent Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama Electoral Vote Projection

--> x - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6538214&mesg_id=6538214

[debbierlus]

5. Keep it kicked. They stole two. They WILL try again.

[tiptoe]

6. yep! ...and if recommending...

also here (full text of OP): 7/24 Election Model: Obama 368EV, State-54.1%, Natl-53.8%; 253EV if 3% votes Uncounted & 6% Switched

and/or here (Election Reform): What would it take for Obama to Lose? Obama @368EV, but 253EV if 3% of votes Uncounted & 6% Switched

[Canuckistanian]

7. The trick is....

Make the legitimate projected vote count significantly larger than the anticipated results less the election fraud effect.

I would suggest basing that number on the 2000 election fraud Bush gains.

I'd like to see those numbers instead of the "straight" statistical numbers.