Home Sales, Durables Orders Probably Fell: U.S. Economy Preview

[marmar]

from Bloomberg:



Home Sales, Durables Orders Probably Fell: U.S. Economy Preview

By Bob Willis

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Home sales in the U.S. probably declined in June as the housing slump headed for a third year, undermining the economy and prompting businesses and consumers to trim spending, economists said before reports this week.

Combined sales of new and existing homes dropped 1.3 percent last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Orders for durable goods, products meant to last several years, probably fell 0.3 percent.

The biggest housing recession in a generation, now being exacerbated by a tightening in credit as financial losses spread, threatens to stall economic growth. The surge in raw-material costs and slowing demand will likely prompt companies to keep reducing investment in a bid to protect profits.

``Stress in financial markets and curtailment in lending are going to make it more difficult to buy homes,'' said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. ``Manufacturers that produce for homebuilders or homeowners are being hurt by the slump in housing.''

The National Association of Realtors' report on sales of existing homes is due July 24. Purchases declined to a 4.93 million annual pace from 4.99 million in May, according to the survey median. Sales reached a 4.89 million pace in April, the fewest since comparable records began in 1999.

A day later, the Commerce Department is forecast to report that sales of new houses dropped to an annual pace of 503,000 from 512,000 in May, according to survey estimates. Sales of existing and new homes are down 35 percent from their July 2005 peak. .......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azjsyRcw4Ag8&refer=home

[NightWatcher]

1. "probably"??? not exactly hard numbers. We know that things are shit, but "probably"

inflation- bad
home sales- bad
home prices- bad
food prices- bad
bankruptcy rate- bad
forclosures- bad

there is no "probably" there

[Arctic Dave]

2. This guy must be part of the Bloomberg Guessing Department.

When you call them, they answer, "Guessing Department, we might be here".

[hendo]

3. Yeah, but

without any hard numbers they can't make a definately claim. The actual numbers will be released soon.

[Arctic Dave]

4. So then you have to ask yourself, why

print this at all. Are they trying to blunt something(most likely), or, are they trying to stir something up? Either way, it really is lousy editor management.

[marmar]

5. Bloomberg isn't the only news organization that runs stories about analysts' estimates......

..... They all do it the week before various economic data are slated to be released.....Nothing new or nepharious here.

[Arctic Dave]

6. Yes, you are correct.

I'm not concerned about that point. What concerns me is the language they used, "probably", really, is this the best cognitive assumption the reporter can make. What is next, are they going to give a report on what the chicken bones say?
That is why I say, "lousy editor management".