In 2009, the U.S. economy is going to collapse...

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

(Posted with permission from http://www.saneramblings.com)
Dear Reader,

In 2009, the U.S. economy is going to collapse, the worst since the Great Depression. You will see much higher interest rates and tremendous fallout from the crashing real estate market and from the crumbling financial institutions. Gasoline prices and availability are anyone's guess.

To postpone this financial disaster until after the November elections, U.S. politicians have cynically assured the public and stoked the economy. But inflation is sweeping through nations across the globe, food shortages are spreading and the U.S. is already incurring higher food and gas prices. This is just the beginning.

We're going to pay a severe price for the wild, irresponsible financial speculation that took place in recent years. An example is the packagers who sold trillions of dollars in "securitized" unregulated mortgages many of which are going bad.

While packagers such as Bear Stearns made huge fees, with some people becoming billionaires, the buyers such as many pension funds and mutual funds of hard working people have been put in peril. As with Bear Stearns, any bailouts will come from the taxpayers, not those who made fortunes selling these risky deals.

And we'll all be sharply impacted by the vast waste of money the U.S. government is spending on wars and weapons, money it doesn't have and continues to borrow. Think of it like a thief who stole your credit card and is running up big bills and has no idea how this money will be paid back.

But we will get through this crisis together. As you prepare for this fierce financial storm about to hit us, if possible, pay down or renegotiate your credit card balances, put your savings in FDIC insured accounts and make sure your job is safe. When we're in the throes of this storm, you'll be thankful you did.

Dick

[butterfly77]

1. I have heard more and more pundits..

saying this, are we in a recession yet?:sarcasm:

[gateley]

2. According to my checkbook and cupboards, Yes we are. nt

[roguevalley]

65. it needs to be undone, take all the money they made off our dead

bodies and do something good with it. billionaires, even the idea of it in this world is an affront to God.

[Vincardog]

3. Hey Dick. The financial storm sank my career 6 years ago. How do I prepare for the

Storm?

[brooklynite]

4. I'm good...

We paid off the mortgage, never carry a credit card balance, moved our retirement money into Euros and don't drive to work...

[Deja Q]

20. Right now, if the US sinks, the rest of the world seems poised to go with it.

Yon euros will crash too.

Never mind property taxes and things you have to pay for every year anyway...

[TheWatcher]

27. This is true, for the most part.

However, perhaps it is best to be proactive and do what one can to preserve one's assets, than to take the approach most in this country are taking, and pretend that outcomes such as this can never exist.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, as it were.

Sadly though, there may be no escape from harm for anyone if the shit truly hits the fan.

And even more sadly, there are so may that won't be able to prepare at all.

[Wcross]

79. Got food & the means to produce enough to live on?

You may be "good" financially but what happens when there is very little food available & no income coming in to pay for the food? I suppose you could rely on "government feeding centers", after all we all know how well the government helped those people who were victims of hurricane Katrina.:sarcasm:

[marmar]

5. The bricks are already falling.....

:scared:

[Crazy Dave]

6. A lot more to it than just the packagers

Thousands of factories and offices sending tens of thousands of jobs overseas yet they still expect the same people they laid off to be able to continue to buy their products and/or use their services. Sorry, can't just have a nation of consumers to have a good economy, you need a strong and stable work-force to have a good economy.

[Lifetimedem]

75. Exactly !

Henry Ford had it right.

He paid his workers enough that they could buy the product they produced.

They have tried to cover up the reality with cheap imports, thinking people would not notice, now the chickens have come home to roost, people can not even afford food and gas.


It used to be a recession only hit the least skilled, now even the highly educated are seeing their jobs replaced by cheap ( h2 visa holders or out sourced to other parts of the world).

No ones job is safe.

[Crazy Dave]

82. Even the guy who bagged groceries or sold ties at Sears....

...used to be able to buy a car and a home in the mid 50's until the mid 70's. An ex girlfriend of mine's father did nothing but bag groceries for 27 years and bought a home and raised her and her sister. Their mom never had to work. They were not rich of course but enjoyed a better standard of living than we do today.

[blues90]

7. how does one make sure their job is safe?

[Deja Q]

21. Exactly. The author of the article that the OP linked to is living in a dream land.

[jpcrecom]

63. phew

I'm glad he mentioned that. I just went into my boss, and said that I need my job to be safe because the economy is crumbling.

Had I not said anything, she may have fired me.

[DJ13]

8. .........

[indepat]

9. The 'pukes wholly irresponsible fiscal and tax policies since the early days of der Gipper,

concomitant with perpetual pre-emptive wars to fulfill neocon PNAC wet dreams, would have long ago brought about the collapse of the US economy were it not the graciousness and folly(?) of others to fund our massive twin deficits: the day of reckoning is fast approaching as surely as God made little green apples in the summertime. :D

[unpossibles]

10. does this mean that Voodoo Economics didn't work?

</sarcasm>

[Occam Bandage]

11. We've been running a short-term economic plan for the last seven years. It's a pity that

"sustainability" is seen as a "liberal buzzword."

[galileoreloaded]

76. not necessarily

I know for a fact there is starting to be a shift in thought process. Sustainability will be co-opted and profited from. Nature abhors a vacuum, and markets are rushing to fill the space.

[BeHereNow]

12. Time to pull an oldie but a goodie from the archives. Junker's Warning: 2003 (Link fixed)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=2706

Miss you Junker; where are your naysayers now?
BHN

[closeupready]

13. Link doesn't work - can you fix?

?

[BeHereNow]

14. Hmmm... appears to be a glitch of some sort-

It appeared on another thread by accident also.
Let me try again.
BHN

[BeHereNow]

15. Fixed the link- thanks for letting me know it wasn't working!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=2706
There you go!
BHN

[Hannah Bell]

18. in 2003, he said:

"However,I do know what the hell is going on....and I said that the crisis would manifest in 10 days. It will take approximately 5 months to get to the Argentina meltdown stage. I expect by spring that the mobs will be howling as whole industries shut down..."

some prediction.

[BeHereNow]

22. Timing or not, I followed his advice and am DAMNED glad I did.

You?
How is the preservation of your assets going?
What price did you buy gold and silver at?
BHN

[Hannah Bell]

23. let's see, it's been 5 years since the blood was supposed to be running in the streets.

[BeHereNow]

25. You didn't answer my question.

And in case you haven't noticed, the blood is running in the streets.
Record numbers of homeless and if you think that isn't
going to land in your back yard eventually, you are delusional.

People sort of like to eat, and they have a tendency to do
what they need to, to survive.

BHN

[dysfunctional press]

29. no blood on the streets in our town...

maybe the rain washed it off...

:eyes:

[BeHereNow]

36. Well, I guess it depends on how you define "blood."

Hope the walls of your fortress of denial hold up through
what other people are experiencing right now.

As in Hungry?
Homeless?

Record numbers- if you don't recognize that as "blood"
then I guess you haven't faced it in your town yet.

BHN

[dysfunctional press]

39. nope.

btw- there have always been hungry and homeless people.

and goofy people who think that hording gold and other metals will get them a meal after an economic apocalypse.

[On the Road]

69. You Must be Very Sheltered

to think that "blood is running in the streets." It isn't even as bad as 1980. There have been at least ten other recessions which were worse than this one, and each time people ran around screaming. This is a stupid crisis brought about by Bush policies, but it won't destroy the country any more than Reagan's policies did.

Adjusted for inflation, gas was higher in 1979 than it is today. It was much harder to get a job during much of the 70s. More financial institutions failed in the late 80s. The stock market saw a worse crash in 2001. The dollar was dead in the water when Reagan took office. None of those have driven the population into homelessness.

There are, of course, places which actually do have blood in the streets. It's generally been there a long time, and there are no prospects for improvement. Those are the places to worry about.

[Wcross]

83. Uh, it has barely started.

How can you say how bad this one is at this time? Wait until next year & tell us how good we have it.............

[dysfunctional press]

28. if the economy fails- what good are gold and silver holdings going to be...?

i'm amazed at how many people actually think that we'll be going back to the old west days, where people carry around bags of gold dust, and the merchants all have little scales by the register...:eyes:

[BeHereNow]

33. It's called owning a globally recognized asset in a global economy.

The point being, you can transfer it any where.
Good luck with that using dollars in the future.
You'll be lucky to get 60 cents for your dollar soon.
In the mean time, some of us have actually quadrupled
our dollars in value by holding metal.

BHN

[dysfunctional press]

34. good luck with that if the u.s. economy fails...

because it will take the global economy with it...:hi:

and i hope you get to wherever you plan on transferring it before the fall actually happens- those kinds of things tend to make countries close their borders to foreigners.

btw- if dollars become worthless, what difference does it make if you've quadrupled yours? :shrug:

[BeHereNow]

35. The POG is global, that is the difference.

What I USED to hold in dollars, is now in metals.
Metal is not going to fail in value.

BHN

[dysfunctional press]

38. like i said...good luck with that...

:hi:

personally- i think it's goofy.

to each his own.

[BeHereNow]

43. I find nothing goofy about more than doubling the value of my dollars.

http://www.kitco.com/market/

For the record, had I left my assets in dollars, I would be nearing
a 50% loss at this point.

So what exactly is goofy about have not only preserved assets,
but more than doubled them?

Again, tell me how you've preserved yours?

BHN

[dysfunctional press]

45. well- it's not the main focus of my life, for one thing- as it apparently seems to be with you

preserving my assets...

well- i'll admit that most of ours are currently in our house and property. we sold our evanston co-op unit in 1996, and purchased a chicago two-flat for $130,000. ten years later, we sold it for $425,000. we used that money to buy a single family home on a little over an acre next door to my best friend, and across the street from another. we have a large garden, a woodshop, a large deck w/wooden hot tub, and we had enough room to get a dog too- a black lab that just loves to play.

rather than sitting around counting our money, we get out and enjoy life with friends and family- and in that sense, we pretty much take life as it comes, and it's tended to work out just fine for us. we don't have any car payments or credit card debt.

i retired when i was 38(disability), so saving for mine is a non-issue.

but that's just what works for us- taking life as it comes, making the most of it, and enjoying the times we have and the company we keep. in the future, we may not have large stashes of accumulated wealth, but we will have a comprehensive, supportive and loving network of precious friends and family to be a part of.

and you'll have your precious metals.

good luck with that...:hi:

[Renew Deal]

78. Gold is worth more than double what it was when this was posted.

It says $403/ounce in that thread. It's worth like $900/ounce now.

I am always skeptical of gold pushers, but I would have made a nic profit if I bought in 2003.

[TheMadMonk]

41. Do you hold the metal, or a piece of pretty paper that...

...says you own some metal sitting in someone else's vault somewhere?

Do you really need to be told that the owners of those vaults are for the most part, exactly the same people who created this bloody mess in the first place?

[BeHereNow]

42. No paper. Wouldn't even consider that for the very reason you state.

When the shit hits the fan, what I have will be worth what ever
the global market price is.
And, it transfers to other part of the world
which ultimately, is what I have my sights on.
A country with no social safety net or concern for
its citizens is not where I plan to end up.
BHN

[Art_from_Ark]

44. In every case of economic meltdown so far

including, but not limited to, France, Germany, Hungary, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Brazil, Yugoslavia/Serbia, Japan, Italy, and, most recently, Zimbabwe, those who had precious metals fared much better than those who did not, everything else being equal. Even going back to the Roman Empire, when they started debasing their coins in the 3rd century AD, the people who held the solid silver and gold coins were much better off financially than those who could get nothing but the debased (silverplated base metal) stuff.

And no one is saying anything about going back to weighing gold dust. That's just nonsense.

[dysfunctional press]

47. you'd be surprised at the number of people who think that we'll have little bags of gold dust ...

they're usually big time rush listeners and bush defenders.

considering the sheer vast number of people who don't have gold coins- IF there is an economic "collapse" & social breakdown in this country, the ones who DO have them aren't going to be faring much better than those who don't.

lead (in bullet form) may end up being the most precious metal for survival in the brave new world.

[Art_from_Ark]

48. Even if there is a complete economic collapse

the government is still going to be printing money. No modern (post-war) country in an economic meltdown has ever gone out of the money-printing business. Just the opposite-- in the post-1930s world, when a meltdown occurs the printing presses go into overdrive, diluting the value of the existing currency and leading to hyperinflation. Most people in such countries haven't held gold, either. But the ones who did, fared much, much better than the ones who didn't, everything else being equal.

Saying that, I do not believe that there will be a return to circulating precious metals coinage anytime in the foreseeable future. Rather, if there is hyperinflation (a more likely scenario, considering how much the dollar has depreciated in just the past 30-40 years), people holding gold will most likely trade their gold for cash through a dealer, like today.

[Renew Deal]

77. His timing might have been off, but he could still see what was happening.

"Commodities first, then bonds/interest rates/derivatives, then banks, then general govt. debt. Then the currency goes. It took Argentina 2 months from this stage..how long for the USofA?"

[Javaman]

16. right now, all the financial institutions are currently run by the repukes...

they are doing everything they can to keep floating. moron* and his room full of dopes are pumping more and more fiat dollars into the system to give the impression that things aren't as bad as they really are.

once 1/20/09 comes and goes, the last of the repukes are going to pull out the stops and let the economy free fall.

They will be out in time and laughing all the way to their off shore swiss bank account.

I can't say it enough, don't plant a garden, make your backyard into a small farm. You will thankful for it.

[shanti]

19. that only works

IF you have a backyard :eyes:

[Javaman]

24. true, but there is always...

http://www.gardenguides.com/how-to/tipstechniques/containerindoor/container.asp

[ThePowerofWill]

26. You don't need a yard to grow a good bit of food,

Think container/shelf gardening in or near windows, in window boxes, on patio's. I have been cleaning up around town teaching this stuff to folks living in apartments, and cramped areas. You would be amazed at what you can grow in minimal space. I have families almost feeding themselves from a 1/10th acre. With containers and shelves you can maximize you yield by growing vertically.

[Clark2008]

53. Or if your zoning laws allow it.

I have a huge backyard, but I live in the city. No chickens allowed.

[Mr. Ected]

17. Save This Message

And rest assured that in 2009, when the forecasted economic disaster unfolds, the right-wingers will fully and unabashedly blame it on President Barack Obama.

[conflictgirl]

50. And that will probably put Republicans back in power for another 25 years

And be used as a reason that a black man can't do a good job as President. :( (Note that these are not my views...I just unfortunately have a pretty low opinion of the state of our society....)

[Wcross]

84. Barack Obama is walking into a mess.

Only a freeptard would believe HE caused it though. I believe he will have a rough start but no sane person will blame him for it.

[dysfunctional press]

30. :sigh:...

these kinds of posts appear time after time...but the date keeps getting pushed back.

why is that...:shrug:

[skooooo]

32. No kidding..

I've been hearing about the impending collapse since the 1970s. Granted, we're in for a recession. But collapse? I'll believe it when I see it.

[Virginia Dare]

55. The entire banking industry is sitting on the brink..

and all of the so-called "experts" seem to be in denial. I don't think this is chicken little stuff anymore.

[Dreamer Tatum]

49. Because it isn't going to happen, despite the dearest wishes of many

Just for fun...for grins: those of you who think the economy is going to collapse,
just what does that mean? Be specific.

What does a collapse of the US economy mean? Help me out.

[Virginia Dare]

56. Good question..

I don't think anybody can tell you for certain what it means. The only thing that I know is that there are a hell of a lot of banks and other financial insitutions, large and small, out there whose debts vastly outweigh assets, and they're probably ultimately going to fail. What does that mean?

[Dreamer Tatum]

60. Here is my prediction

We will see increasing prices and unemployment, along with steady interest rates, until the speculative oil bubble softens.
Commodities will slowly follow, which will slowly lead to a strengthening of the dollar, which, with luck, will permit interest
rates to rise. Commodity prices have to fall in order for us to increase employment without spurring more inflation.

I do not see banks failing so much as I see real investment declining. Each is bad in its own way.

[Virginia Dare]

72. What's going to save the banks?

there are an increasing number of people who can't make their payments, there is a glut of foreclosed homes on the market. Do you see the Feds stepping in to save the day? Are they in a real position to?

[MrSlayer]

31. Ok, so how do we capitalize on it?

If it is inevitable then there should be a way to come out on the winning side. During the depression most people got fucked but some people got rich, we need to figure out how to be on the "get rich" side of it.

[A HERETIC I AM]

40. It's easy.

Buy puts, sell calls and sell short.

Of course, you have to know exactly WHAT to buy the Put on, sell the Call on and what to sell short.

For instance, if you are convinced the S&P 500 will be considerably lower in 12 months than it is today, you can use an Exchange Traded Fund for the purpose.

You will need to set up an account with a brokerage firm and get qualified for a Margin account with Options trading privileges. Once you've done that and deposited the minimum the firm requires, you're off and running.

Best of luck. You'll need it.

On edit to add: Actually, it's simple, but it's not easy.

[Virginia Dare]

57. If there is a silver lining..

it's that socialism is going to look mighty good to people out there, just like it did in the 30's. Is Obama the new Roosevelt? I hope he's up to it. With McCain we'll have the new Hitler.

[MrSlayer]

70. McCain would not be Hitler.

He would be a terrible disaster of course but he doesn't have a chance of being Hitler. He would never have the initial successes, he can't speak at all, let alone captivate massive audiences and convince them to accept him as dictator and he's really not that sharp. He's too old, he's not a man of the future. Hell, he's not even a man of the present being computer illiterate and all. McCain would just be a tool of the fascists as President, not Hitler. Now, those fascist forces pulling the strings would certainly be ..... hmmmm.... Hitlerian. The results of McCain would be more like those of Reagan then Hitler. Just saying.


Now as far as Obama being the next FDR, I doubt it. But that's my natural cynicism talking. He has the potential to be transformative and great but will he? I don't know. He might sell out at the drop of a hat or might even be bought off already. We'll need to judge him as he goes along, he has an X factor. We know for sure what we're getting from McCain. And it's nothing good.

[Initech]

37. The first thing Obama needs to do is to make market speculation a federal crime.

Only then will we get back on track.

[Dreamer Tatum]

61. Throwing the baby out with the bathwater nt

[Scriptor Ignotus]

62. if you want to kill every small and medium sized

business then yea i guess that's a great idea.

[Heywood J]

68. Speculation in necessary commodities like energy (in all forms). various foods,

water, etc. that humanity requires to live should be illegal - it serves no purpose but to make a tiny few rich at the expense of all others. Find something else to speculate on.

[deaniac21]

46. If the US economy collapses the entire world economy will

collapse.

[bdamomma]

52. whatever we do has a ripple effect, gee we just love

being the bully huh?:sarcasm:

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

51. Thank you all for the interesting comments..NT

[katty]

54. yeah, duh....look around as the walls come tumbling down NOW

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

58. Dick began this column last November...

it started:

Are you prepared for the coming financial crisis?"

We Americans haven't seen one like this since The Great Depression, as the dollar's value will get cut in half, real estate will lose 1/3 of its value and millions of people will lose their jobs.

As a veteran businessman and long term investor, I offer you suggestions to help protect you and your family and as many other people as you and I can reach.


you can read the whole post, here, if you wish:
http://saneramblings.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=217&start=0

peace.

[katty]

59. yes, my friends in finance have been advising for several yrs &

i have been downsizing for about 5 yrs+---many of my associates and family are still in denial about all this-i guess that works for them.

[lame54]

64. And it's going to fall in Obama's lap...

and the freepers are going to put the total blame on him - I hope he is ready

[MillieJo]

66. Here on the UK they are warning us of a recession within months...

The building trade is in serious trouble..

[Xenotime]

67. Tear the whole fucking system down...

It's a corrupt and failed system.

[Popol Vuh]

71. DOLLAR DEVALUATION

From monetary inflation makes up the vast majority behind this problem. n/t

[LanternWaste]

73. The secular end-timers...

The secular end-timers...

Sometimes I don't know group which makes me more frustrated to listen to-- the secular end-timers or the religious end-timers.

"The end is near!" written on every sandwich board for the past one hundred years.

[ProfessorGAC]

80. You & Me Both

Thanks for saying what needed to be said. The situation was 10x more precarious in 1928 and 1929 in nearly every way, and there was little mass media to keep the issue in the public eye. There is no comparison, either practically or statistically.
The Professor

[kpominville]

74. FDIC may claim they are broke

Because the Conservatives have spent America into financial ruin.

That insurance on our deposits may end up doing us no good after all, which will only make the whole thing that much worse.

[galileoreloaded]

81. You don't realize how bad it really is.

Most state unemployment funds have a year +/- left of funding with no hope of replenishment. The majority of public pensions (CalPers etc.) were so invested in CDO and LBO funds that the losses are staggering (10-15%) and not done. GM, Ford and Chrysler are done, and the best case scenario is that Federal pension insurance will be able to cover half. Most unions were so heavily invested in real estate (60-70% in some cases) that most likely 20-25% of that money is gone. All entitlement programs (SS,Medicare,Medicade) are gone, in 5-6 years, as they are already insolvent. The Dow, on average has done no better than .8 percent per year over the last 34 years. (remember that pesky inflation) What do you think is going to happen in two or three years when the boomers start to take their 401K disbursements?? Who will be there to buy them?? Where are these magical investors going to come from?? Asia, Arabs, etc. are moving AWAY from the dollar not towards it. Foreign investment will not be on par with the last 10 years, as this country has been picked clean of capital, natural resources, and reason, and we the people have not realized it yet. Just wait until we start monetizing the debt. You are going to get your $900 a month in Social Security sure, but they never promised you it would buy anything past a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk. The guarantee should never have been made, wasn't even really possible to sustain long term, and even though for a while it worked as long as the ratios were in order, the entitlements party is OVER. A bookie and a stock broker/funds manager make their money on the SALE, and a bonus off the profit. They don't care if you win or lose, just keep buying or selling, placing that bet. The guy who made the promise has been dead about 60 years, and Thomas Paine said "time makes more converts than reason".

Hell, we couldn't raise taxes now if we wanted to. Anybody with any net worth and half a brain is already off-shore in non-dollar denominated assets. Raise taxes, income, corporate, anything, and you will hear the biggest sucking sound ever as the rest flee an over regulated environment. I am reluctantly advising my 16 year old to choose career interests that will allow him flexibility to work out of the country, where there is better opportunity in the not so distant future. I can't expect him to pay another 300% of the current tax rates because my parents generation decided to piss away what was left to them. Think that this is a new idea?? Kids today are smart, and they have NO loyalty, to anything, even their own grandparents. Why?? That is what they were taught by us.

Now, I am new here, and an ex-repub to boot. But let me share something with you. 90% of the self identified republicans out there are just as pissed about most of the same stuff that the DU crowd seems to be hear. Do you realize that the only real difference is the disagreement of how to fix it?? Both parties have been hijacked by huge, self perpetuating financial interests, and the relative silence you hear from mainstream republicans is them keeping their heads down and quietly getting things in order. We spend so much time being pissed at each other, which provides great profit to anyone who can instill more class warfare, more us vs. them. How much interest is being generated by the tens of millions of dollars now sitting in bank accounts of the two presidential candidates?? Are they carried off-balance?? Has anyone ever even asked?? We better start figuring out the name of this game. This is a non-partisan issue. Both parties are complicit.

Sorry so long