What are Obama's chances in the G/E?

[El Pinko]

I really had a hard time picking who to vote for in the primary. I felt about the same about Obama as I did about Clinton - ambivalent. Both are fine, competent candidates, both are far from liberal.

So the choice was down to electability.

On the plus side, Hillary is bright, has an experienced machine behind her.

On the minus side, some find her "grating" and she has long had "high negatives". I have fairly liberal friends that hate her, but I've never gotten a good reason out of them for feeling that way.

Then there's Obama. On the plus side, he's handsome, competent, a wonderful speaker and REALLY likable.

On the minus side, there is the fact that his record of accomplishment in the Senate is a bit slim, and supposedly there are some scandals (Rezko or something) that the repugs are waiting for the G/E to hurl at him. The fact that he doesn't want to "fight dirty" worries me, too.




But in the end, I finally did settle on Obama, because of the two of them, his message was more inspiring, and I just felt like he would be more likely to motivate people to get out and vote. (This is the first time my primary candidate has EVER gotten the democratic nomination, so I hope that's a good sign).


But let's be real, he's got a hard row to hoe. He has to win back some of the Hillary voters. He will have to overcome a certain amount of racism in voters in some swing states. I desperately want to believe he can pull it off, but all my relatives in Texas are all ready to go vote for McThuselah, and they're not even particularly right-wing.


So where do you put Obama's odds to won?








PS - just a thought, what if McThuselah picked Alan Keyes as his running mate in an obvious counter to Obama being the first black candidate? Would it help McThuselah, or would Keyes bore the pugs so much that they'd sleep through the election, giving the democrats a landslide?

[MrModerate]

1. I think 60 is a bit high, but he might get up around there . . .

Which is by any measure a mandate.

Re: Keyes -- Please, please, please bring it on! What a walking, talking, farting disaster of a candidate he'd make! My eyes positively glisten at the prospect.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I don't think you're talking the same numbers.

OP is talking about odds of winning & you seem to be talking about % of popular vote.

[MrModerate]

5. Oh, I see. I read the dang thing too quickly.

I'd still say the odds are about 60-40 for an Obama victory though.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. According to Intrade, today's odds are

61% Obama, 36% McNutso.

[yourout]

4. You have exactly the same position as me. After Edwards dropped out I went though the same process.

[El Pinko]

6. Does it surprise you that I was an Edwards supporter too?

As a leftist/socialist, I find the rancor between the various democratic candidates pretty amusing. Aside from Kucinich, who we all know would have been HOPELESS in the G/E, they are all pretty much alike. Well, maybe Gravel was a bit off the reservation, too...


I went for Edwards because I truly believe he would have had the best shot in the G/E, and I think he should have had Hillary as his running mate.

I think the two of them could have sewn up so many key groups that it would have been a fantastic victory.


Obama has amazing charisma. Let's hope it really shines through at the convention and in the debates.

[yourout]

7. I suspect a great many of Edwards supporters are like us.

[Mike Nelson]

8. McWho

Good anaylsis. I think stupididy and racism are going to be tough to overcome. Someday, it will happen, I know. Hillary would have had sexism in place of racism. You have to figure the Republicans will cheat and smear, too. Let's hope everyone gets out to vote and people have had enough.

[Juche]

9. There are alot of weird factors

Young voters and black voters should make up 30-35% of the electorate this election. Obama will carry the black vote (dems always do) by 80 pt margins and will probably carry the youth vote by 30+ pt margins. What is also important is that Obama will be able to get their turnout higher. Whatever problem Obama has with white rural reagan democrats (who probably make up about 10-15% of the democrat coalition) can be overcome with higher turnout among youth and blacks.

Also, there is division in the GOP. Evangelicals and conservatives do not like McCain. They may stay home. Around 25% of GOP voters voted for Romney, Huckabee or Paul after McCain won the nomination.

Obama is doing really well among hispanics, despite what the media is telling people.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/05/obama-doing-better-among_n_105456.html

Unions are going to play a much bigger role this time around.

On alot of levels this is not a normal election.

If McCain picks Keyes all it'll do it make the bigot branch of the GOP (the ones that really don't like gays, blacks or mexicans) stay home even moreso than they already are. Besides Obama beat Keyes in a landslide in the senate in 2004. Keyes left the GOP a month ago anyway.

[El Pinko]

11. Your comment is the scariest one so far...

Obama will carry the black vote (dems always do) by 80 pt margins and will probably carry the youth vote by 30+ pt margins. What is also important is that Obama will be able to get their turnout higher.

I'm only 38, but I've heard the one about candidate X "bringing out the young voters", and then THEY NEVER SHOW.

After Stevenson and McGovern, are we REALLY supposed to pin our hopes on "the young voters"?

Of course I hope it happens, but the youth vote's record at putting dems over the top is pretty bad.


At this point, the best thing Obama has going for him are 1. Bush's record and McThuselah's identical ideology 2. His amazing charisma and ability to reach people 3. The fact that McThuselah is pretty damn uninspiring.


Unfortunately, McThuselah is a "war hero" who went through hell "for his country", and he's got a long record in the senate. He's an ultra-right-winger, but despite that has cultivated an image as a moderate "maverick".

I'm afraid many center-right-leaning voters will see him as the choice of familiarity and safety and will be afraid to vote for a young black man that Limbaugh's telling them is "a marxist".

[Juche]

13. What is scary about it

Youth always have lower turnout than older people because they are new to politics and voting and someoen with 2 years experience of paying attention to politics doesn't have the turnout of someone with 25 years. But youth turnout is increasing.

From 2000 to 2004 it went up by about 20-30%. It should boost the same level again in 2008. In 2004 they were 16% of the electorate, they'll probably be 20% this election. 20% of the electorate voting with 30 pt margins is nothing to sneeze at.

It is not just getting youth to vote, but getting them to vote democrat consistently. If the dems can get the youth to keep voting dem by 20 pt margins there is a chance that an entire generation will carry that political bias with them for life. By 2015 people born after 1977 will make up 1/3 of the electorate. After they become 30 or 40 and start turnout out at 70-80% rates if they carry that dem bias it'll help the dem party for the next 50 years and we will see progressive majorities until the 2050s. That is what is important, not a single election.

And there are other ways Obama will win. He will probably win alot of libertarian votes because he wants to uphold the constitution, alot of independent votes, alot of women who will run from McCain when they find out his stance on Roe v Wade, alot of union members who truly find out McCains views on the economy, alot of people sick of the Iraq war, latinos sick of the GOP, etc.

The youth vote is just one of many things Obama has going for him.

[stillcool]

10. it's up to 'we the people'

I don't know how much influence the cable soap operas will have this time around. I like to think that the very idea that we are where we are is a good omen. I'm sure that race will continue to be used to divide and conquer, it is McCain's only path to winning. If your relatives won't vote for an African American that's their business. At this point, I could care less. I believe that there are more of us will not be voting according to skin color, than people would have me think. At least in my little corner of the world.

[El Pinko]

12. I don't think it's Obama's color...

...my relatives live in Texas - that means most media is right-wing, all the time.

They already believe that Obama has the "most liberal voting record in the senate" and that McThuselah is a "moderate maverick".

They consider themselves "centrist independents" and think McThuselah is the centrist choice...



My dad hates bush and is a loyal democrat. He's going to vote for Obama, but he says "McCain's a good guy". :banghead:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. All any Democrat has to do to win is run as the "Not a Republican".

Bush and his toadies have made such a staggering mess of everything that even the most obtuse voters are looking at McGoofy as just a slightly different variety of more of the same.