285 K jobs lost in May

[unlawflcombatnt]

June 6, 2008

Friday's Employment Report is another testament to government science fiction writers' creative talents. Nonfarm Payroll Employment fell "only" -49,000. But this number was highly manipulated, and greatly understates true job losses.

Let's start with the "Household Survey" ( which is ≠ NonFarm Payroll Employment, which comes from the "Establishment Survey").

A total of 285,000 jobs were lost in May, falling from April's 146.331 million down to 146.046 million for May.

Unemployment rose from 5.0% to 5.5%

The number of those unemployed increased by a whopping 861,000 in May, from April's 7.626 million up to 8.487 million in May. (This is an addition of 861,000 workers to the unused labor supply, putting even more downward pressure on wages.)

There are now 87 million working age Americans who are NOT employed.
(This is the sum of those Unemployed + "Not-in-labor-force").

Now let's go to the Establishment Survey, which creates the numbers for Nonfarm Payroll Employment.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment declined "only" -49,000. This number, however, was manipulated upward by the BLS's favorite tool — the business "birth/death" model. This concoction added 217,000 jobs to the total. ( The "birth/death" addition is based on an imaginary number of jobs created that are not counted, unlike the bulk of the Payroll Employment number, which is based on actual, countable jobs. The birth/death model is like a "mark-to-model" addition to the employment number.)

What this really means is, that Payroll Employment would have declined -266,000, were it not for the fictitious addition of jobs from the Birth/Death guesstimate. Below is a copy of the BLS's Birth/Death estimate, showing the addition.



This model can also be found at the following link:
http://stats.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

The Payroll Employment breakdown showed a decline of -34K jobs in Construction and -26K in Manufacturing. Service sector jobs increased +8K. (The individual breakdowns can best be seen at Briefing.com )

Below is a bar graph from Briefing.com showing the month-to-month losses in Payroll Employment:



This is the 5th straight month of Payroll Employment job losses. The lion's share of job losses have come from Construction and Manufacturing. And without the addition of virtual jobs to both Construction and Manufacturing, those job losses would be much larger. Expect these job losses to be revised upward, once the BLS is forced to replace the fictitious birth/death additions with the actual countable numbers.

This is also at least the 5th month of the Recession as well, though it may have started even sooner.

[gateley]

1. Over a QUARTER OF A MILLION jobs in ONE MONTH!

Sorry for the caps, but I'm screaming!

[unlawflcombatnt]

6. You should be

Screaming. Everyone should be.

The economy is circling the drain, yet the government and the MSM pretend otherwise.

[unlawflcombatnt]

2. Effect of Employment Report on Markets

Review of the Housing Survey shows an sum total of -165K jobs have been lost during 2008, going from 146.211 million in December 2007 down to 146.046 million.

Despite the claims by the media that the oil price spike is the cause of the Dow's nearly 400-point loss, there was a sharp downturn at the market's opening at 9:30 AM, after the Employment Report came out at 8:30 AM.

Below is a link to a 2-day market chart showing the movement of several different market indexes and stocks:

Markets

Legend for the above chart:

XAU=Gold-Silver Index
0001=Oil
XBD=Investment Brokers/Investment Banks
FNM=Fannie Mae
INDU=Dow Jones Industrial
TNX=Treasury, 10-year

[laylah]

3. Make that

285,001 jobs lost in May as of May 31 :cry:

[KharmaTrain]

4. Welcome To Stagflation...

Hang on to your hats, this ride could make the late 70's seem like a bump in the road. Not only are incomes declining, jobs being lost...but there's no end in sight. If anything a chain reaction has set in that every wave of bad economic news this cycle speeds up...any jump in the price of oil, more foreclosures, a dip in the market and so on. The result in a combination of rising prices and stagnating incomes...known as Stagflation...and those of us who survived the late 70's and early 80's can tell you how difficult this situation is...especially for those just trying to keep afloat. There ends up more and more month at the end of each paycheck and this hurt the economy as spending on consumer and luxuary items all be vanish thus forcing even more people out of work and stressing the economy further.

The other day I read where the airlines will now start cutting back flights in addition to raising fares. This will all but destroy whatever summer travel. High Diesel prices will mount as goods cost more to both manufacture and distribute...and with those higher prices, sales will fall, more people will be laid off...the cycle is a hard one to break.

And this lame duck regime won't lift a finger to do a thing. They're just looking at their exit...the rest of us can go pound sand. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if this regime feels this is just retribution for the low approval ratings and greater scrutiny. Look at how the lame congressional repugnicans already are blaming all problems on Democrats...many in that coven believe its in their best interests to see this country go down the tubes...and that they can make a few bucks on the way down.

[indepat]

5. The huge bubbles created by Greenspan's accommodation of junior's

tax cuts just might ultimately make this seem like a walk in the park 'cause our economy is likely to contract at an accelerating rate due to the housing debacle, tight credit, and spiraling energy and food prices. It's great fun watching those RW talking heads on the likes of CNBC trying to explain all this away, like everything will be coming up roses for you and me and all Americans. Remember tens of millions of Americans were chanting four years ago: four more years, four more years although the die had long been cast. :D

[unlawflcombatnt]

7. Bailing out Rich Financiers

Bailing our rich financiers seems to be the only plan the government has for saving the economy. Apparently their logic is that if we save enough rich people, everything will be OK.

[indepat]

8. 'cause then, some will trickle down to the little people

:D

[lumberjack_jeff]

9. How did I miss this yesterday? Kicking anyway. n/t

[leftofthedial]

10. 87 million Americans of working age are unemployed

that puts the REAL unemployment rate somewhere around 40%.

[The Inquisitive]

11. no, not all working Americans are in the labor force

Unemployment are those who want a job and are looking for one currently. The percentage actually represents a turnover rate, IE how quickly one can find a new job following quiting/being laid off/being fired.

[leftofthedial]

16. I'm not talking about the technical definition.

40% (or so) of the possible working people in this country do not have work.

For example, I haven't been "unemployed" since November of 2005 when I received my last unemployment check. I haven't been able to find work either, so I haven't had a "real" job. But I'm not "unemployed." I call bullshit to the raygun-era propaganda definition of "unemployment."


and 40% doesn't even include the underemployed, which is just as big a problem.

[KillCapitalism]

12. 40% is a little high.

It's not anywhere near that now, but when the next Great Depression comes it will be.

The highest REAL not fudged numbers unemployment rate you will find right now anywhere in the country will be about 20% at most. You will only find this in the most economically depressed cities in the country such as Detroit, Flint, Gary, Cleveland, St. Louis, etc.

[sarcasmo]

14. Living in Michigan, I think most of the State runs at close to 40percent

Detroit and Flint don't stand alone.

[leftofthedial]

17. 300 million people in the US. 100 million (plus) are kids and old folks and infirm.

That leaves 200 million who can work. 87 million are not working. 87/200 = 43.5%


we agree though (I think) that the government numbers are meaningless, except as pro-corporate propaganda.

[Zynx]

15. That's not how unemployment has EVER been measured.

By that standard every country in the world is operating between probably 30-50% unemployment.

[leftofthedial]

18. EVER?

I'd say that was *exactly* how unemployment was measured until fairly recent history.

[Zynx]

19. Um, no. Never.

Well, maybe back in the Middle Ages when they didn't collect data they may have referred to anyone who wasn't working as unemployed, but your definition has never been applied in the modern era anywhere. Ever.

[leftofthedial]

20. number of workers without jobs divided by total number of workers in the population?

Really?

Never used in the modern era. Can you prove that?

If, in fact, you aren't just making that up; if it truly has never been used (whatever that means) by anyone (whoever that might be) in the modern era (whatever that is), I wonder why? Perhaps because it would make poor propaganda? How does the fact that one's unemployment benefit runs out negate the fact that a person is out of work?

[leftofthedial]

21. From Wiki

Unemployment is the state in which a person is without work, available to work, and is currently seeking work. The unemployment rate is used in economic studies and economic indexes such as the United States' Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators. The rate is determined as the percentage of those in the labor force without jobs.

No mention here of any of the additional criteria used in our government's unemployment statistics. It says, "the percentage of those in the labor force without jobs." America has 300 million people, about 200 million of whom are of working age and not disabled. (We can quibble about that number if you want. Bush's "government" believes the work force to number about 160 million.) The OP points out that the government's own statistics show there are 87 million Americans who are in the labor force but aren't working. 87 divided by 200 is 43.5% 87 divided by 160 would be a whopping 54%. As I mentioned, this doesn't even consider underemployment, which is rampant.

Whatever the "real" number is for unemployment, it isn't any 5.5%. That's ludicrous.

[lumberjack_jeff]

22. In 2000 the employment to population ratio was 73%. Today it is 71%.

Millions of people who are not working, yet not considered "unemployed" would return to work if they had the opportunity.

[sarcasmo]

13. Didn't Bush say it was because of all the high school graduates, LMFAO.