Are we in a recession?

[Deja Q]

I was told today we are not, and how unemployment is only at 5.5% (and she didn't bat an eyelash when I said "But what happens when their 6 months of UI runs out and they are no longer considered unemployed?")

She's a very reasonable person, in many ways, but this time it doesn't make sense. Especially with all the season sets of "Married with Children" for 50% off at Best Buy, you know there's a recession.

[DJ13]

1. Our ever honest government says no

George Soros and Warren Buffett say yes.

Who do you trust?

[Muttocracy]

2. Well, recessions are based on trends, not just absolute #s, right?

What I heard on the radio was that the jump in unemployment was the biggest one-month change in decades. Don't have a link for that handy. Economist DUers?

[DJ13]

5. Biggest jobless jump since '86 -- Wall Street sinks

Jobless rate zooms to biggest increase in decades; stocks plunge nearly 400 points

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Pink slips piled up and jobs disappeared into thin air in May as the nation's unemployment rate zoomed to 5.5 percent in the biggest one-month jump in decades. Wall Street swooned, and the White House said President Bush was considering new proposals to revive the economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/economy.html

[jojo54]

3. I would say a resounding YES!

Actually, I thought we were in the start of one in '04. When people have to start deciding whether they should buy medicine or food, then we're in deep shit.

And ya know damn right well we'll never see the numbers for those whose benefits have run out and STILL don't have a job.

[Muttocracy]

8. yes - that 5.5% leaves out many. nt

[Firespirit]

4. The gov't economic numbers are fudged

We know that, of course.

What's that passage in 1984 about boot production? More and more, record production, everything's great according to the telescreen. "In all likelihood, no boots had been produced at all."

Here we are.

[ThoughtCriminal]

12. Yep

In particular, the meager amount of "growth" in those numbers adjusts for a very bogus inflation rate.

[elfin]

6. Yes, and on the cusp of a depression

Thanks to Dumbya and conservative politics.

The recession will be prolonged and while "experts" deny and refute that "depression" is in the works - it will be so UNLESS we elect Obama and a strong majority in both houses to turn things around.

[blue sky at night]

7. how about where you live....

is traffic way down??...it sure is in NE Ohio, kind of nice in a way, but you have to wonder how bad it is for businesses. The Friday night rush hour jams are just not happening, and the traffic out on the Ohio Turnpike, it is a real pleasure right now.

[Muttocracy]

10. I've been hearing that certain bus routes are now standing room only

I've been trying to buy a house for the last year and most of the ones I can afford are 15 miles one way from work. Now I'm giving up, moving in with someone else into an apartment with better bus service than where I live now. So going from buying my own house to sharing an apt in part due to the cost of gas, utilities, food.

:cry:

[Hekate]

9. Unemployment numbers are cooked, afaik. They stop counting you when you run out of unemployment ins

...insurance. That doesn't mean you have a job, just that you ran out of benefits. Also, they count you as employed even if you are an engineer flipping burgers at a fraction of your former salary and you have to send all your children out to work just to keep the lights on.

I have a suspicion that the numbers are much higher, but I don't know how to obtain that information.

Hekate

[Captain Angry]

11. The numbers are structured in such a way that it is very hard to hit a recession...

by the definition of two consecutive quarters of slowed growth.

So, they can honestly continue to say that we're not in a recession based on the definition.

However, we may not be in a recession, but we sure are in trouble. I've got 75 job applications out in the last two weeks, one interview scheduled. I have extensive experience along with a bachelor's degree and can't get a hit.

[anigbrowl]

13. Ask your friend...

How much growth we'd be enjoying if we hadn't drastically devalued the dollar. Better yet, ask her what kind of return she's getting on her 401k right now.

(You might be tempted to mention oil profits as well, but since about half of oil stocks re held by pension funds etc. the economic benefits are spread a bit wider than most people imagine. I only mention this so you don't feel tempted to go on a rant about evil oil companies and permanently lose credibility with your friend.)