If Obama wins, his 2012 opponent will be either Lamar Alexander or Huckabee

[Hippo_Tron]

Yea I know it's way too early to be thinking about 2012 but I enjoy making predictions about these things.

The GOP has a tendency of respecting their elders and having a seniority candidate in the race like Dole or McCain and often nominating that candidate. In this case it will probably be Lamar Alexander. He ran in '96 and '00 and had a poor showing both times (like Dole did in 1980 and 1988) and he didn't run this time because he was up for re-election and Fred Thompson entering the race made that difficult. He will also be 71 and you'd think by now that the GOP would realize that nominating people in their 70's might not be the best idea but maybe not.

Huckabee, assuming he isn't McCain's VP, will be the "I told you so" candidate. He will have to strengthen his ties to party leaders and assure them he will play ball when he's in office and sharpen his rhetoric so as not to scare the shit out of everyone who does believe in evolution. But if he does these two things he could be a serious force in the GOP primaries.

[justinsb]

1. Typo - When is spelled W - H - E - N not I - F

Cheers!

[Liberal Veteran]

3. Gah! I was just about to post the same thing.

[speedoo]

2. Rethug "party leaders"... who are they? (serious question)

I really don't know who they are. There is so much disarray, it's hard to tell.

[Hippo_Tron]

4. The rich guys that give lots of money

[speedoo]

5. Good answer, given the context of your OP.

But who are the POLITICAL rethug party leaders? I assume Cheney and the neocons will retain some power. Maybe the Bush family will also, despite the chimp's disastrous failure.

Hastert and DeLay are gone. Boehner? I don't even know who the rethug leader is in the Senate. Is it McConnell? He may not even be re-elected. Gingrich seems to still be hanging around.

Like I said. Disarray. Congressional rethugs right now are just trying to survive. Assuming leadership of their sinking barge is the last thing on their mind.

Davis, their congressman from Virginia, recently said some thing like "The republican brand is in the trashpile." He's right.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. I agree, the GOP is looking at a period similar to what we went through from 2000-2005

Tom Daschle was the closest thing we had to a de facto leader and he wasn't up to the task. We were in disarray and going in too many different directions.

Howard Dean really re-energized the party when he became Chairman. He may not have been universally respected as a leader (and he still isn't) but he really made the Democrats get our shit together and have some sort of cohesive message. Once we won the midterms it was pretty clear that Pelosi, Reid, and Dean were in charge and now Obama is going to take the mantle.

I think you are right that they are going to go through that phase for the next few years. DeLay was a powerful enough figure that he could have kept the party in line as Minority Leader in the House but Boehner and McConnell are pretty weak.

The 2010 midterms will also be critical in keeping the GOP in permanent disarray. Right now we have a majority in the house that will likely expand in 2008 and we're playing on a Republican drawn map because they had more Governors and state legislatures after the 2000 census. We won back a lot of Governors mansions and state legislatures in 2006 and if we retain them in 2012 we will get to re-draw the map to our favor.

In terms of the Bush family and the Cheney's power, again, it's all a question of money. If Bush and Cheney can raise money for Republicans you can bet that they will still wield power.