Breaking CNN Poll: Obama leads McCain 49-46, shows his base more solidified than McCain's.

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/06/poll.mccain.obama/index.html

Obama is starting the general election with a 3-point lead on McCain. And while the lead is slim and within the margin of error, there is some major concern for McCain.

Firstly, Bush's approval is bad and Obama will continue to link McCain and Bush.

Secondly, Obama isn't doing poorly with white voters, grabbing 42% of the vote. That's about how much Clinton, Gore and Kerry got in the past 3 elections. This is his starting point, I expect these numbers to rise a bit.

Thirdly, and most importantly, Obama's Democratic base is far more stronger than McCain's. This flies in the face of what everyone suggests, but it does appear Obama is doing well with traditional Democratic voters and definitely doing better than McCain is with the Republican base.

Obama will expand his lead, I predict, by July and will hold it until November.

[featherman]

1. A GOP strategist expects Obama's lead to grow to 15% by August

Check it out:

GOP strategist Steve Lombardo has a new poll and finds some troubling signs for McCain therein.

I was especially struck by his small lead among white voters -- keep a close eye on that figure after Obama secures the nomination.

LCG conducted a national survey of 1,000 registered voters May 26-28th. The following are the highlights:

The poor economy is THE driving force in this election. The economy is by far the most important issue for Americans, eclipsing Iraq by more than a 2 to 1 margin. Healthcare and social/moral issues are tied for third.

President Bush is dead weight for nearly every Republican running in November. Bush’s favorability is at 32%. More importantly, nearly half of voters (49%) have a “very unfavorable” opinion of the President.

McCain and Obama start the election with similar favorability ratings. Both have similar unfavorable ratings (approximately 40%); there are, however, some differences among specific sub-groups:
McCain does better among those who are married, non-Catholic Christians and evangelicals.
Obama does better among those who are younger, not married, have college degrees and are non-Christians.

In a head-to-head, Obama is beating McCain by a very narrow margin (44% to 40%). As we have said before, we believe that Obama will get a 10-point bounce once he is officially the nominee and Clinton voters “return home.” Having said that, this data is instructional as to where the strengths and weaknesses lie for each candidate.

more at the link:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0608/Warni...

[MarjorieG]

2. So much for Hillary holding her base hostage.

[blonndee]

3. Looking good so far.

Let's all work to see what we can do to make sure it grows and grows and grows!

[MadBadger]

4. Right now, 17% of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain according to this poll

that comes out to a total of 6 percent of voters, which isnt that bad (Clinton has 35% in this poll). Another 22% of Clinton supporters wont vote, which equals 7.7%. That 7.7% is the place that Obama can get the most votes from. If he can get 60% of those voters back, Obama would then only lose 8-9% of voters who were Clinton supporters. If he can get 85% or more, I think he's fine.

[DJ13]

5. McCain's popularity is sinking rapidly

[blm]

6. Great - it's good to have a more awake electorate for a change.

.

[Captain Hilts]

7. Within the margin of error. Not really a lead. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

8. If they were tied, they'd be tied. They aren't tied, so he's in the lead.

[Captain Hilts]

10. Eight years in polling taught me there are specific ways of describing results...

how you round off numbers and the language you use.

It's within the margin of error and, unless it persists over an extended period of time, is not considered a lead.

[Median Democrat]

9. Still Very Worried About Disney/ABC and News Corp. Fox

Most folks get their news from television, and recent history has shown that Disney and News Corp will pull out all the stops to make sure that a Republican is elected. Remember in 2004, we had Stolen Honor, which smeared Kerry, and the fake 9/11 documentary that smeared Bill Clinton? The one thing with Obama, at least it forces Disney and News Corp to spend money to fund a new mockumentary, rather than simply showing the 9/11 film blaming Clinton on the eve of the election.

[Carrieyazel]

11. Shouldn't he be up by a lot more than this? 3 points is an effective tie.