When did you realize the US was in a speculation-driven property bubble of historic proportions?

[El Pinko]

When did you realize the US was in a speculation-driven property bubble of historic proportions?

[boobooday]

1. I have to say before 2002

Because my hubby was born and raised in Santa Barbara, CA, and we lived there then. It was absurd there before anywhere else.

[Deja Q]

2. I think there will be recovery, in the next 12 to 18 months.

I'll be saving for a down payment on a new home too.

Not a McMansion shanty but a proper house.

[Birthmark]

5. Seems unlikely to me.

Not unlikely that you'll buy a house. I wish you nothing but good. :)

It's just difficult for me to see a way that the American consumer comes back. We're up to our necks in debt, perhaps over our heads. Millions of the better paying jobs are being outsourced. Oil prices will continue to rise in the medium to long term. I just don't see how things get better for a fairly long time for Americans, if they ever do get better.

Those of us with little to no debt are a distinct minority. Until a dent is made in all the debt, public and private, I can't see the consumer economy taking any substantive upswing. It's possible, but inadvisable, that more debt can be extended but that's a temporary, unsustainable illusion not a solution.

[tbyg52]

3. I've been keeping track of CA prices ever since I foolishly moved.

So I've known for a loooooooooong time. Living near the coast is worth some premium, but prices all over the West became insane a long time ago.

[Birthmark]

4. Since at least 2004...

...I wrote about it at that time. I think it was a year, possibly two years, prior to that that I looked at the numbers and realized what was happening.