Was the Libby jury fairly chosen?

[dsc]

What is the probability of choosing a jury made up like the Libby case jury in a place with the demographics of Washington DC? First the demographics.

http://dc.about.com/od/communities/a/CensusDC2000.htm

DC is 30% white and 70% non white. The Libby jury has 10 white jurors and 2 non white jurors. Since a jury with 11 or 12 whites would be every bit as suspicious we should count those cases as well. The proper distribution to use the binomial distribution. To find the probability of choosing a jury of 10 whites and 2 non whites in DC is found by:

12C10 x^10 y^2 where x is .3 and y is .7 and 12c10 is 12!/2!10!. That yields 0.00019.

The probability of choosing a jury with 11 whites and 1 non white is:

12x^11y^1 which gives us 0.0000148

The probability of choosing a jury with 12 whites and o non whites is:

1x^12y^0 which gives us 0.000000531

When we add that up we get 0.000205 or just over a 1 in 5000 chance. Impossible, no. Unlikely, well duh. I don't know what is up here but one does have to wonder.

[SteppingRazor]

1. If both sides want a mostly white jury...

it'd be easy to get one with an even smaller white population.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

2. Yes, It Was. It Went Through The Same Process As Any Other Trial.

Your flaw is the presumption that a jury is selected randomly from the general population. That just isn't the way it works. Sorry.

[dsc]

4. I know it isn't totally random

but even with peremptories this smells funny.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

6. Nope. Doesn't Smell Funny. The Process Was Perfectly Legitimate.

They choose who they want. That's who they chose. That's how it works. There is no reason to believe anything funny happened here.

Besides, you think Fitzy was born yesterday? Do you not trust his judgment in the jury selection process? C'mon now.

[dsc]

8. I would love to see what the original pool was

that should have been random.

[H2O Man]

3. Yes. n/t

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jonathan50]

9. Then don't read the thread..

[dsc]

10. I think he was being sarcastic

[Annces]

7. I think more black jurors were dismissed because

they said upfront that they did not trust the Bush administration.

[Spazito]

11. You would have to show that the jury notices went to a statistically

representative group ie to 30 percent whites and 70 percent non-white before you could even begin your calculation. How is the jury pool determined?

Jury selection procedures
Potential jurors are chosen from a jury pool generated by random selection
of citizens’ names from lists of registered voters, or combined lists of voters
and people with drivers licenses, in the judicial district. The potential jurors
complete questionnaires to help determine whether they are qualified to serve
on a jury. After reviewing the questionnaires, the court randomly selects
individuals to be summoned to appear for jury duty. These selection methods
help ensure that jurors represent a cross section of the community, without
regard to race, gender, national origin, age or political affiliation.

http://www.uscourts.gov/UFC99.pdf

Judging by this procedure alone, it would negate using D.C. demographics as a starting point in your calculation, imo, never mind adding in the questionnaires, etc.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kirby]

13. Jury of his peers...

He got a jury of his peers...

The whole statistical angle is silly. Both sides gets a say in the juror selection process and each have their own reasons.

[newyawker99]

15. Hi kirby!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[emulatorloo]

14. Yes - prosecution and defense both had a say in jury selection

just like in any trial