Mathematically, how do democrats lose elections

[Juche]

My impression of the democrat party is it is an alliance between 3 groups, more or less.

Liberals (financially secure, secular, progressive, etc)
Working class, unions and lower class workers
Minorities (non-whites, non-christians, non-heterosexuals, etc)

I don't know how true that assumption is, but I'm going with it. As far as minorities and the national electorate:


Blacks make up about 10-12% of the electorate. They go democrat about 90% of the time.

Jews make up 2-3% and go dem about 80%

Latinos make up about 7% and prefer the dems about 70% of the time, esp now that the GOP is so anti-immigrant. From 2000-2004 latinos became somewhat more GOP, but due to the Tancredos they are leaning dem again.

Secularists, agnostics and non-christans make up about 17% and go dem about 70% of the time

GLBT make up about 3-6% and go dem about 80% of the time


I know there is some overlap between race, religion and sexuality (the majority of agnostics are probably liberals, there are some blacks, jews or latinos who are GLBT, etc) so I'm subtracting a few percentage points. I don't know much about statistics, so I"m going to assume 'minorities' make up 30% of the electorate and vote dem 24% of the time.

THat leave the dems only needing 27% of the vote from the other 70% of the public. How the hell do they lose? Men slightly prefer the GOP but women slightly prefer the dems. The south prefers the GOP but new england prefers the dems. There are as many secularists as evangelicals. So those explanations (the explanation that everyone else is a southern christian male and votes GOP just as heavily) doesn't add up.

Am I looking at things through rose colored glasses? It seems that with the GOP alienating so many religious, cultural & racial minorities and driving them into the arms of the democrats that the dems would sweep up.

[hootinholler]

1. Subtraction.

In districts held by republican officials subtracting from Democratic votes.

-Hoot

[msongs]

2. by adding up the number of dems in congress who will not vote for clean and fair elections? nt

[bunkerbuster1]

3. Duh. The GOP always makes it about personalities.

They make it about who is the most trustworthy. They make it about "character."

They're very good at it.

[blm]

4. In crucial states GOPs gained control of every level of election process where votes are allowed,

cast and counted. The RNC targeted those states in concerted efforts over the last 10 years. The DNC under Clinton loyalists till 2005 sat on their hands and watched them do it.

That has resulted in purged voter rolls, and total control of the input and output of the electronic voting machines and their 'final' vote counts.

[alstephenson]

7. Yep. You got it right, blm.

Another stolen election coming up.

[JDPriestly]

5. If we lose this one, it will be because our Congress refuses to

put establishing a universal healthcare plan first and foremost and funding Bush's wars last.

Schumer is already losing the election for Democrats. I guess he sees the handwriting on the wall: Hillary will lose the nomination. So he's going to spoil it for Obama.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/dems-hedge-on-healthcare-2008-04-23.html

Forget the other issues in the news. This is the big one: Schumer (the one who brought us crazy Mukasey) says getting universal healthcare is too complicated, can't be done.

Dear Senator Schumer: You've just lost the election for us Democrats. We the people want Congress to legislate a universal healthcare plan. You failed us on stopping the Iraq War. You failed us on defending us against a runaway, out of control Justice Department. Three strikes and you will be out of the Senate come the next election. It's traitors like Schumer (and he is not the only one) who lose elections for Democrats.

Excuse me for being a little off the mathematical topic of your post, but the math of it means nothing if we Democrats can't deliver on the substance.

First rule of politics: Get your voters to the polls. That means delivering on the issues important to your voters. Healthcare is important to all voters. Congress had better start working on it right now if they think they won't have the time come January 2008. People die if they don't have adequate healthcare. That is how important this is.

[VP505]

6. It ain't the math

its too many people that vote for and support candidates for all the WRONG reasons regardless of what demographic they might fit into.

[GoesTo11]

8. So Dems need 39% of non-minority whites

Not that easy - since the same reasons that all the minorities tend to prefer the Dems (basically that the Dems do more to protect minority rights, and advocate more progressive policies) there should be at least some self-interested non-minorities who say "if someone else benefits from those policies, I must lose from them" - with regard to tax code it is sort of a zero-sum game, and with regard to other wealth transfers and subsidies and social investments. Beyond that, the protection of minority rights at least is viewed by some non-minority whites as taking away their ability to call the shots. Finally, and I think most importantly, the most wealthy and corporations could lose a lot under a progressive government that taxes them and doesn't send pork their way. These interests don't directly account for many votes, but they provide the money for the machine - advertising, news, think-tanks, etc., etc. to try to switch some percentage of (white non-minority) voters from D to R. There is all sorts of well-grounded theory in how to turn money into someone else's behaviors - that's what marketing and advertising are all about, for example. So that's what they do.

Put all these factors together, and you probably explain most of the gap between the Dem's potential and actual shares. The rest comes from the players in the party. Currently, the Democratic party is pretty incompetent and its leadership is pathetic. An organized team against an unorganized bunch of individuals has an advantage - just like in basketball. To some extent, that could be improved. But we may be stuck Will Rogers statement that "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."

[Warpy]

9. They look at the corporatized, packaged candidates

who promise not to change business as usual, they sigh, and they stay home.

[SammyWinstonJack]

10. Especially this time. I won't stay home, but I won't be enthusiastic about the one left standing.

[Turbineguy]

11. Well that's all very nice

how about this?

The US Population is 72 percent Democratic, 28 percent Repub. Thanks to Bush.

Of the Democrats, 52 percent favor Obama, 48 percent favor Clinton. Maintain the acrimony. Now the country is divided in three.

That makes 37 percent voting for the Democrat and 28 percent for the Republican.

Fraud shifts 15 percent of votes from the Democrat to the Republican

That makes the outcome 31.5 percent Democratic and 33.5 percent Republican.

[AZ Criminal JD]

12. You have an silly assumption. The population is not 72% Democratic.

I don't remember what the current figure is but it lingers around 40% most elections.

[L. Coyote]

13. That's 32.3 % of the vote from 42% of the population, assuming mean numbers

That leaves 17.7% of all votes from 58% of the electorate, or 30.5% of the vote.

Anyway the answer is: By one or more votes.

[Rockholm]

14. Diebold.

[Zynx]

17. Are you saying Republicans have never legitimately won an election?

[Zynx]

15. Republicans win their segments by similar percentages.

Rural evangelical conservative whites sometimes go 90-95% Republican, for example.

[dysfunctional press]

16. voter apathy. and people who vote against their own interests.

nt

[Zynx]

18. I've talked with some people who find it distasteful people vote their economic interests.

They maintain that is practically being a prostitute. I'm not saying I agree with them, far from it. I am saying it was a perspective I personally was not familiar with.