7pm
Military chiefs give US six months to win Iraq war· Violence expected to rise after UK withdrawal
· Troop numbers too low
· Coalition is 'disintegrating'
Simon Tisdall
Wednesday February 28, 2007
Guardian UnlimitedAn elite team of officers advising US commander General David Petraeus in Baghdad has
concluded the US has six months to win the war in Iraq - or face a Vietnam-style collapse
in political and public support that could force the military into a hasty retreat.
The officers - combat veterans who are leading experts in counter-insurgency - are charged
with implementing the "new way forward" strategy announced by president George Bush on
January 10. The plan includes a controversial "surge" of 21,500 additional American troops
to establish security in the Iraqi capital and Anbar province.
But the team, known as the "Baghdad brains trust" and ensconced in the heavily fortified
Green Zone around the US embassy, is struggling to overcome a range of entrenched
problems in what has become a race against time, said a former senior administration official
familiar with their deliberations. "They know they are operating under a clock. They know
they are going to hear a lot more talk in Washington about 'Plan B' by the autumn - meaning
withdrawal. They know the next six-month period is their opportunity. And they say it's
getting harder every day," the former official said.
By improving security, the plan's short-term aim is to create time and space for the Iraqi
government to bring rival Shia, Sunni and Kurd factions together in a process of national
reconciliation, us officials say. If that works within the stipulated timeframe, longer-term
schemes for rebuilding Iraq under the so-called "go long" strategy will be set in motion.
But the next six months are make-or-break for both the US military and the Iraqi
government.
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