Iraq Fighting Underscores Surge Failure

[kentuck]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/30/iraq-fighting-underscores_n_94116.html

Iraq Fighting Underscores Power Struggle

<snip>
The Sadrists believe the goal was to weaken their movement before provincial elections this fall. Al-Sadr's followers expect to make major gains in the regional voting at the expense of al-Maliki's Shiite partners in the government.

That points to a significant difference between the Shiite crisis and the war against Sunni insurgents. Al-Qaida has been severely weakened because it lost much of its support within the Sunni community.

By contrast, al-Sadr's movement commands a wide following especially among impoverished Shiites who feel estranged from Shiite parties that appeal more to the better-educated urban classes.

For months, al-Sadr and other Shiite parties have been locked in a bitter power struggle for control of the Shiite south _ which contains the bulk of the country's proven oil reserves as well as major religious shrines that attract millions of pilgrims.

Last August, al-Sadr proclaimed a unilateral cease-fire nationwide in an effort to reorganize the force and rein in factions that had branched out into crime.

U.S. commanders acknowledge that truce helped bring down violence in Baghdad.

....more

[panader0]

1. al-Sadr's ceasefire is collapsing

I expect the violence to ratchet up considerably this summer. While some may think this will play into the hand of a hawk like McCain, I think voters will see the violence as proof that the "surge" (actually Sadr's ceasefire) failed.

[theoldman]

2. We need to give the surge a chance.

I feel reasonably sure that after 100 years there will be some improvement.

[kentuck]

4. Yep!

They want know whether our al Qaeda enemies were killed by a missile or if they died of old age ??

[kentuck]

3. more from the article:

<snip>

BAGHDAD — The Iraqi capital locked down by curfew. U.S. diplomats holed up their workplaces, fearing rocket attacks. Nearly every major southern city racked by turmoil. Hundreds killed in less than a week.

A declaration Sunday by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to pull his Mahdi Army fighters off the streets may help bring an end to the wave of violence that swept Baghdad and Shiite areas after the government launched a crackdown against militias in Basra.

That will ease the violence which has claimed more than 300 lives. But it won't bring an end to the power struggle between Shiite parties that triggered the confrontation.

Nor will it ensure government control of Basra, Iraq's second-largest city and headquarters of the vital oil industry.

...more