Maliki's Basra crackdown poses risk for U.S. (Reuters)

[Eugene]

Source: Reuters

Maliki's Basra crackdown poses risk for U.S.
Sat Mar 29, 2008 6:47am EDT

By Dominic Evans - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - Iraq's crackdown on the Mehdi Army
in Basra poses a dilemma for the United States, which
wants Iraqi forces to take a lead on security but risks
getting sucked into their violent Shi'ite feud.

-snip-

But there is little prospect of a swift victory. The
fighting has spread through southern regions, drew the
U.S. forces and led to protests in Baghdad by followers
of Sadr, who say Maliki is using force to weaken his
political rivals.

Sadr pulled out of Maliki's Shi'ite-led government last
year when the prime minister refused to set a deadline
for U.S. troop withdrawals. But Sadr also ordered his
Mehdi Army to observe a ceasefire which has been
central to a recent fall in violence.

"The key question now is what the United States is
going to do," said Joost Hiltermann, of the International
Crisis Group think tank. "If it allows (the crackdown)
to go forward the ceasefire will unravel and the U.S.
will face the Sadr movement in its full power."

-snip-

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2884231520080329

[KharmaTrain]

1. No Shit Sherlock...

Anyone remember "Vietnazation"? How we squandered billions in propping up a puppet regime and army that crumbled like a deck of cards when facing a more determined enemy? The US found itself having to cover the ARVN's ass and South Vietnam would eventually collapse under its own corruption and ineptitude. Malaki is the new Van Thieu...a figurehead of an illegitimate government that is too weak to assert authority. So guess who has to clean up the mess...

The Petreus "lull" was predicated on paying off and arming all the factions...creating a "Mexican standoff" that would appear as "progress", but in-turn it enabled the various factions to re-arm and re-position for the eventual battle for the control of the "federal" government and the oil.

Crashcart ran to Iraq and pushed Malaki to secure the southern oil fields...hoping all the arms and money will sway more to support Malaki than Sadr. It's a gamble doomed to failure as this regime, again, has understimated the popular support for Sadr and the complete ineptitude of Malaki's government. The hope is to help Gramps with an Iraqi election in October and then force an "oil bill" that secures the plunder and forces an American presence for economic interests.

Of course the American military will be forced to support Malaki and will put our stressed military in a precarious position...stretching forces and resources far and wide to supress what will be a growing insurection.

[Mika]

2. Time for surge 2.0

:nuke: :nuke:



:(