Social Security: Why does the date of the impending "crisis" move into the future every year?

[Hannah Bell]

"Here are some questions for you. In 1997 the Social Security Trustees said the Trust Fund would go to depletion in 2029. In 2007 they now project it to go to depletion in 2041.

What are the implications of having a future date recede in time at a rate of more than a year per year? Obviously if Social Security continues to improve at that same rate then we need to do nothing, and certainly not right away.

Two, what caused the date to move out so steadily in the first place? What is the causal explanation for the trend seen in this table?

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/issueguides_socialsecurity_changes

Those are the questions we should have been discussing over the last ten years, not listening to the scary stories of people who have always hated Social Security to start with.

Take Dean Baker's advice. Take a look at the numbers for yourselves. You will probably be amazed at what you will find.

The Reports are available at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/index.html or via my website."

From: The Bruce Web: http://bruceweb.blogspot.com/

Other sources of HONEST information on the non-existent Social Security Crisis:

Dean Baker: Beat the Press http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press

Econospeak: http://econospeak.blogspot.com/

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Borrowing.

[Hannah Bell]

4. What borrowing?

From what to what?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. Borrowing against the SS Surplus.

SURPLUS!

[Hannah Bell]

8. I understand completely that the TF has a 2 trillion dollar surplus.

I understand that the surplus is borrowed into the general fund in return for US Treasuries.

What I don't understand is why you think that makes the "crisis" move into the future each year.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. That surplus, borrowed into the GF, prolongs the realities of the actual debt.

It's an ever dwindling offset.

Simple.

[Hannah Bell]

12. The SS Trustees are the managers of the TF.

They track its status fairly accurately, & those numbers are built into their forecasts. There is nothing unforseen about the buildup in the TF. That's not where the changes in the date of crisis are coming from.

[FSogol]

2. Its hard to take a crisis seriously if the date of impact keeps moving

Kinda of like my deadlines at work.

[Hannah Bell]

6. Especially when it only moves one way...

The crisis is ever-receding into the future. Which means it never comes.

Because: the forecast they're using to hype the crisis is cooked.

[Hannah Bell]

3. From "Econospeak" (Barkley Rosser, economist)

Social Security Looking in Better Shape
"The Social Security Trustees released their annual report today. Even though Bush has appointed people like Andrew Biggs of Cato, a confirmed privatizer and hysterian, to be Deputy Director during a Congressional recess, the current report moves to a somewhat more reasonable and less hysterical position.

It is available at
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR08/tr08.pdf.

The inimitable and careful Bruce Webb has pointed out to me personally that even though they are still projecting by their intermediate projections program exhaustion in 2041, the consequences and longer run gaps are now reduced.

So, the projected 75-year deficit is now to be 1.70 percent of taxable payroll rather than 1.95%, a decline of 0.25% and total actuarial deficit over 75 years is now supposed to be $4.3 trillion rather than $4.7 trillion, down $400 billion.

Also, if the system were to go "bankrupt" in 2041, the payments would be cut to 78% of then existing receipts rather than 75% (this number was 71% back when Bush gave his doom scenario in his SOTU speech in 2005 when he made his push to "reform" SS).

So, bit by bit, the reality that social security is really not in such bad shape is creeping in."

http://econospeak.blogspot.com/

[class2068]

5. The history of climate prediction

has been wrong over 2/3 of the time. Jumping on the EcoPanic Wagon is stupid and irresponsible. In 1975 the same people were screaming about a new ice age. People who demand to run your life "to save the planet" are almost universally closet fascists who just want to run your life.

[wuushew]

9. The planet DOES need saving

we are in the midst of the sixth great extinction event in planetary history. The Holocene die off is very real and very regrettable.

[unpossibles]

10. wrong topic, wrong website and wrong argument

alerting. thanks for playing.

[Cleita]

13. Because there really is no problem.

There are workable fixes for any temporary crisis if Congress is willing to implement them. This is another scare tactic of the RW, along with calling social programs ponzi and pyramid schemes. The fact is that privatizing these programs are the real ponzi and pyramid scheme using taxpayer's money for corporate profit without delivering the services that are supposed to come from them. A look at our privatized health care system should be proof enough to everyone willing to cast a critical eye on how for profit health care really operates.

[NMDemDist2]

14. ding ding ding we have a winner!

we baby boomers will be dead before there's a problem

:shrug:

[truedelphi]

15. yeah I mean, don't you all think the SS crisis woul dhave been

Adverted if we had just privatized the monies and put them somewhere safe - Like retirement accounts in Bear Stearns!

[Cleita]

16. LOL!

:thumbsup:

[mistertrickster]

17. Do not let the Reich-wing stampede you into thinking SS is going bankrupt.

There's a lot more evidence showing that it's doing well than the other way around.

The reich-wing hate SS, they've always hated it, they've hated it from the beginning, and they hate it now.

Why?

Because it's a gov't mandate for us to help each other, and they can't tolerate that.

If it's successful, and it has been, why . . . the next thing you know, we'll have gov't health care or gov't job training for out-of-work people.

How can the rich get richer that way?

[Hannah Bell]

18. k 4 evening. n/t